With the rapid melting of ice in the Arctic, the long-isolated region is
becoming a more accessible zone for commercial fishing, fresh water, minerals,
coal, iron, copper, oil, gas, and shipping.
Thus, the
region is increasingly catching the world powers’ attention. Arctic states –
Canada, Denmark (via Greenland), Russia, Norway and the US – are in rush to
exploit opportunities from the region, which is believed to hold huge oil and
natural gas resources. With such lust for resources, it is likely
that slow militarization, which has already been initiated by the
stake-holding states, will intensify, jeopardizing the peace and stability of
the region and the globe.
Regional Importance
The
Arctic region is located around the North Pole and surrounded by landmasses of
the aforementioned five countries. Since the Arctic region was “inaccessible”
until the end of 20th century because of the layers of thick ice, there were
less territorial disputes until the beginning of this (21st) century. However,
ice is melting rapidly in the Arctic region because of global warming,
clearing this ice-covered region from ice. The ice of the region is already
reduced by as much as 50% from 1950s. The region is warming faster than other
areas across the globe. Such rapid melting of ice is making the region a more
“accessible” zone. The melting sea ice has opened up trade routes (during the
summers) between Asia and Europe through the Arctic Ocean; the same region
where such trades routes were unimaginable even couple of decades ago. In 2007,
the Northwest Passage between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans opened for the
first time in memory.
The
constant change in the climate and the increasing accessibility to the region
would make the extraction of oil and gas from the region much easier.
Estimations from different corners reveal that the region is speculated to hold
oil reserves of up to 13% of the global total of undiscovered oil, up to 30% of
natural gas, and also other precious metals.
Disputes
The
increasing ‘accessibility’ to the region and the above-mentioned ‘speculations’
have given rise to plenty of disputes that have emerged among the
aforementioned five countries surrounding the region. However, among those
disputes, the most intensified ones are: (i) regarding boundaries in the
Beaufort Sea and the status of the Northwest Passage between the US and Canada,
(ii) regarding Hans Island between Canada and Denmark (via Greenland), (iii)
regarding the Lomonosov Ridge – a mountain range across the region — among
Canada, Denmark and Russia, (iv) and regarding the maritime border from the
Bering Sea into the region between the US and Russia. Therefore, all countries
surrounding the region are involved in disputes regarding the ownership and control
over different parts of the region. Along with these five Arctic countries,
China and the UK are also involved in the dispute through their claims over the
Svalbard archipelago, which happens to be within the region.
Some of
the Arctic countries that are claimants to the disputes have been attempting to
come to a solution through the Commission on the Limits of the Continental
Shelf (CLCS) and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
However, a constructive solution, which would bind all the claimants to the
Arctic disputes to abide by it, could not be reached through these CLCS and
UNCLOS. This is because, both CLCS and UNCLOS lack the appropriate mandate from
countries across the world, including the aforesaid five Arctic countries, to
impose “legally binding” decisions or provisions for any maritime disputes.
Therefore, the absence of a binding legal regime creates scopes for intense
territorial and maritime disputes concerning the control, exploration and
exploitation of the energy resources in such a region that is becoming
increasingly accessible for such purpose (i.e. purpose of energy exploration
and exploitation).
Militarization
In the
prevailing scenario, all the Arctic countries, which are involved in the
territorial and maritime disputes among themselves, have been moving towards
militarizing the region in order to acquire each of their respective objectives
in the region. Norwegian foreign secretary Jonas Gahr Stoere already expressed
that the presence of “military, navy and coastguard” in the region is
necessary. Canada planned a deep water “naval facility” at Nanisivik, which
lies at the entrance to the disputed Northwest Passage. Canada promised (under
former PM Stephen Harper’s administration) to build armed ice-breakers, several
patrol ships and several vessels in order to proceed towards gripping the
Arctic. In 2011, Canada conducted large-scale “military exercises” in the
region.
In August
2015, the US permitted Shell to drill for oil in the Chukchi Sea, which falls
within the periphery of Alaskan Arctic. The US “Coast Guard” has already
deployed “sophisticated ships, aircrafts and other maritime assets” in the
Alaskan Arctic for the duration of Shell’s drilling in the Arctic. Through such
presence, the US is not only trying to exploit energy resources of the Arctic
region, but also trying to keep its “military presence” deep inside the region.
On the
other side, in 2007, Russian scientists dived to the seabed in the Arctic Ocean
and planted a titanium Russian flag (Russia claimed that it was flag of
Russia’s ruling party) in order to beef up their claims. Russia has already
moved to restore a Soviet-era “military base” and other “military outposts” in
the Arctic. In early 2015, Russia exercised Arctic “military patrols” from its
Northern Fleet, involving “38,000 servicemen, more than 50 surface ships and
submarines and 110 aircrafts.” More interestingly, Russia is currently planning
to jointly explore for oil in Russia’s Arctic fields with China, which is
increasingly becoming a strong “military power” besides being an economic giant.
Through such move, Russia is trying to make sure that Russia has a “rising
military power” like China involved into its stake in the Arctic region so that
such cooperation favors Russia at the time of escalation of any “military
conflict”.
Wrapping up
As of
yet, the Arctic region is largely untouched by mankind. However, with the ice
caps melting, access to the Arctic oil and gas reserves, which is estimated to
be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, will become easier – a prediction
that has already sparked a military competition in the region. Such
militarization of the region is likely to increase with almost all the
countries urging for increasing their military deployments and exercises, and
there appears little hope & opportunity for any diplomatic resolution (or
political agreement) regarding the disputes. It can be well presumed that
without any diplomatic resolution (or political agreement), the current
non-hostile debate over the Arctic could turn into a violent confrontation.
It seems
our globe does not lack reasons to engage in chaos. The two world wars began as
European conflicts, only to turn gradually into world wars. Likewise, if the
disputes over the control of the Arctic resources are not resolved quickly, it
could turn into a larger military conflict that would not just involve the
Arctic countries, but would also drag a larger part of the world into this
conflict. And for sure, the start of such war would mean the cold, yet
beautiful, Arctic region would become the targets of war machines– destroying
the environment and the stability of the region and the globe.
Bahauddin
Foizee is an international affairs columnist, and specializes on Middle
Eastern, greater Asia-Pacific & European geopolitics. Primarily associated
with law practice, Bahauddin Foizee is a Dhaka-based independent Researcher on
law and international affairs. He loves teaching law and advocates for
environmental awareness.
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