If the unthinkable happened, India has
quite the arsenal—including nuclear weapons—to cause Pakistan considerable
trouble in a conflict.
Recently India alleged a series of
ceasefire violations—in the form of automatic weapons fire—by Pakistan on the
border between the two countries. According to India, it was the sixth attack in just five days. Such events
are a reminder that tension remains high on the Indian subcontinent.
The nuclear arsenals of both sides—and the red lines that would trigger their
use—have made conventional war much more risky to conduct. The 1999 Kargil War
is considered the closest the world has come to a nuclear war since the Cuban
Missile Crisis. If India were to use its superiority in ground forces to seize
a sizable amount of Pakistani territory, Pakistan could respond with nuclear
weapons.
It’s distinctly possible that any future
war between India and Pakistan would involve limited action on the ground and
full-scale fighting at sea and in the air. India has the upper hand in both,
particularly at sea where it would have the ability to blockade Pakistani
ports. Pakistan imports 83% of its gasoline consumption, and without sizable
reserves the economy would feel the effects of war very quickly. An economic
victory, not a purely military one might be the best way to decisively end a
war without the use of nuclear weapons.
With that scenario in mind, let’s look at
the five Indian weapons Pakistan would fear most in a war.
INS Vikramaditya Aircraft Carrier
Commissioned in November 2013, INS
Vikramaditya is the newer and more modern of India’s two aircraft carriers. In
the event of war, Vikramaditya would lead an offensive at sea designed to sweep
the Pakistani Navy from the field. The nightmare scenario for Pakistan would be
Vikramaditya parked off the coast of Karachi, Pakistan’s largest port,
enforcing a naval blockade.
Originally built for the Soviet Navy as
the anti-submarine aviation cruiser Baku, Vikramaditya was mothballed in 1996
after it became clear post-Cold War Russia could not afford to operate her. The
ship was purchased by India in 2004, to be upgraded by Russian shipbuilders to
a true aircraft carrier complete with angled flight deck. The updated design
deleted all cruiser armament, including two 100mm deck guns, 192 SA-N-9 surface
to air missiles and 12 SS-N-12 Sandbox anti-ship missiles.
Vikramaditya is 282 meters long and
displaces 44,000 tons, making it less than half the displacement of American
supercarriers. Nevertheless Vikramaditya’s powerful air wing is capable of
executing air superiority, anti-surface, anti-ship and anti-submarine warfare.
The carrier air wing is expected to consist of 24 MiG-29K
or Tejas
multi-role fighters and 10 anti-submarine warfare helicopters. India has
ordered 45 MiG-29Ks, with the first squadron, 303 “Black Panthers” Squadron,
stood up in May 2013.
INS Chakra Nuclear Attack Submarine
While INS Vikramaditya would be the
visible symbol of a naval blockade, perhaps the real enforcers would be India’s
force of 14 attack submarines. The most powerful of India’s submarines is INS
Chakra, an Akula-II nuclear-powered attack submarine.
INS Chakra would be able to fulfill a
variety of wartime tasks. It would be a real threat to Pakistan’s Navy,
particularly her 11 frigates and eight submarines, only three of which are
reasonably modern. Chakra is also capable of covertly laying mines in Pakistani
waters and conduct surveillance in support of a blockade.
Construction of the submarine that would
become Chakra began in 1993, but stalled due to lack of funding. In
2004 the Indian Navy agreed to fund the sub to completion—at a cost of $900
million—in exchange for a future 10 year lease with an option to buy. Delivery
to the Indian Navy was supposed to take place in 2010, but transfer was delayed
after a 2008 accident that killed 20 Russian Navy
personnel and wounded another 21.
At 8,000 tons displacement, Chakra
is as large as U.S. Virginia-class nuclear submarines. It has a
maximum speed of 30 knots with a maximum operating depth of reportedly 520
meters. The sub not only has a customary large sonar hydrophone array on the
bow, but also active and passive arrays scattered over the rest of the hull.
Chakra also features a pod-mounted towed hydrophone array.
INS Chakra is armed with
not only four standard diameter 533 torpedo tubes but also another four 650mm
torpedo tubes. Armament includes the VA-111 Shkval supercavitating torpedo, a
high speed torpedo capable of traveling at 220 knots to ranges of up 15
kilometers. Missile armament is in the form of 3M54 Klub anti-ship missiles.
Chakra can carry up to 40 torpedo tube launched weapons, including mines. (Five
merchant ships were struck by mines during the 1971 India-Pakistan War.) For
defensive purposes, Chakra has six external tubes, each carrying two torpedo
decoys.
According to the terms of the lease with
Russia, Chakra cannot be equipped with nuclear weapons.
AH-64D Apache Longbow Block III Attack Helicopter
India’s recent agreement to purchase the
AH-64D Apache helicopter represents a quantum leap in land firepower for the
Indian Army. The Apache’s versatility means that it will be able to do
everything from engage armored formations in a conventional war scenario to
hunt guerrillas and infiltrators in a counterinsurgency campaign.
The Apache is one of the most battle
proven attack helicopters fielded. Apache is capable of speeds of up to 171
miles an hour in high altitude environments, an important consideration in
India’s mountainous terrain. The rotor blades are resistant to 12.7mm machine
gun fire and the cockpit is protected from shrapnel by Kevlar shielding.
The Apache Longbow is optimized to attack
and destroy armor—the mast-mounted millimeter-wave radar is capable of
detecting and prioritizing up to 128 vehicle targets in a matter of seconds,
then attacking up to sixteen targets in quick succession. For counterinsurgency
operations, the thermal imaging sensor allows crew members to pick out
individuals in ground cover and concealment.
The helicopter has four external hard
points, each of which can mount four Hellfire missiles. A 30mm cannon capable
of engaging light armor, soft targets or personnel is mounted underneath the
helicopter chin and slaved to an optical sight worn by the pilot and gunner.
In a contract worth $1.4 billion dollars,
in 2012 India agreed to purchase 22 Apache helicopters. Also included in the
2012 deal was a request for 812 Hellfire Longbow millimeter-wave radar guided
missiles for use against tanks and armored vehicles and 542 Hellfires optimized
for use against hard, soft and enclosed targets. Also included in the deal were
245 Stinger Block I missiles to provide an air-to-air capability.
In August, India offered to buy a further 39 Apaches, in an attempt to drive the
overall unit cost down.
Su-30MKI Fighter
The Indian Air Force’s Su-30MKI air
superiority fighter is meant to secure air superiority over Pakistan. The IAF
has 200 Su-30MKIs in service with another 72 on order. A long-ranged, twin
engine fighter with a powerful radar and formidable armament, the Su-30MKI will
form the mainstay of the Indian Air Force.
The Su-30MKI is an evolution of the 1980s-era Su-27
Flanker. Thrust vectoring control and canards make the plane highly maneuverable,
while the Zhuk active electronically scanned array radar makes it capable of
engaging several targets at once. Complementing the Zhuk will be the Novator
long-range air to air missile, capable of engaging targets at up to 300 to 400
kilometers.
The Su-30MKI has an impressive twelve hardpoints for
mounting weapons, sensors and fuel tanks. The Su-30MKI is arguably superior to
any fighter in the Pakistani Air Force, with the possible exception of the F-16
Block 50/52, of which Pakistan has only 18.
A portion of the Su-30MKI force has been modified for the
strategic reconnaissance role. Israeli-made sensor pods reportedly give the
Indian Air Force the ability to look up to 300 kilometers into Pakistan (or
China) simply by flying along the border.
The Su-30MKI will grow even more lethal with the addition
of the air-launched version of the BrahMos supersonic missile, currently under
development. Each Su-30MKI will be capable of carrying a single BrahMos.
BrahMos will give the Su-30MKI stand-off capability against ships and ground
targets to ranges of 295 kilometers.
Indian Nuclear Weapons
India first tested a nuclear weapon in 1974, with the
detonation of a 12 kiloton explosive device. The Indian government has been
consistently tight-lipped on the status of their nuclear arsenal, and as a
result a considerable amount of mystery surrounds India’s nuclear weapons.
The exact size of the arsenal is unknown but estimated to
be between 90 and 110 nuclear devices. Statements by officials have lead
outsiders to believe the maximum yield of Indian weapons to be around 200
kilotons, or approximately ten times the destructive power of the Hiroshima
bomb.
India’s first nuclear delivery systems were likely attack
aircraft—first the Jaguar, then the MiG-27 and Mirage 2000. Although capable,
the aircraft were vulnerable to Pakistan’s air defense network and this
vulnerability likely lead to the development of the land-based missiles. It is
unknown whether nuclear weapons have been fitted to the Su-30MKI, but as a
non-stealthly aircraft its ability to penetrate Pakistani defenses would not be
dissimilar to a Mirage 2000.
Indian nuclear weapons are placed under the authority of
the Strategic Forces Command. India’s primary delivery systems are land-based
missiles. The Prithvi I and II liquid-fueled missiles have ranges from 150 to
350 kilometers and need half a day to prepare for launch. The Agni I, II, III
and IV solid-fuel missiles are medium to intermediate range ballistic missiles
with a range of 700 to 4,000 kilometers.
India is also on the
verge of fielding its first ballistic missile submarine, the Arihant. Based on
the Akula-I attack submarine design, Arihant has been modified to carry 12 K-15
short-range missiles or 4 K-4 intermediate-range nuclear missiles. Arihant is
significant in that it will be able to patrol far beyond the range of Pakistani
anti-submarine warfare capabilities. This will essentially make India’s
retaliatory capability untouchable by Pakistan and thus a more credible
deterrent.
India has a “no first use” policy regarding its nuclear
weapons, reserving them solely for retaliation in the event of nuclear attack.
Indian also adheres to a “minimum self defense” doctrine, in which the fewest
nuclear weapons needed to maintain effective deterrence from attack are
maintained.
Kyle Mizokami is a writer based in San Francisco who has appeared in The
Diplomat, Foreign Policy, War is Boring and The Daily Beast. In 2009 he co
founded the defense and security blog Japan Security Watch
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