The most
important factor is the US President-elect's praise for Vladimir Putin, since
Russia has so much influence over the region If we look at United States
foreign policy through the prism of Russia, then Central Asia definitely comes
into the reckoning, especially as President-elect Donald Trump seems determined
to reboot the US-Russian relationship.
Central Asian leaders
appear genuinely cheered by Trump’s election victory and his praise for Russian
President Vladimir Putin, who he is expected to meet soon after taking office —
an event they believe could lead to visits to the region.
It seems Trump has no problems with dictators.
His
former foreign policy adviser Carter Page said in Moscow recently that the US
has had an “often-hypocritical focus on democratization, inequality, corruption
and regime change” in its dealings with Russia, China and Central Asia.
Page
added that “Washington had missed opportunities to work with leaders such as
Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping because it had ignored
principles of ‘respect, equality and mutual benefit.'”
These
words are music to the ears of the regimes in Central Asia’s five republics,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan.
Democratization is not going to become a headache for Trump. He is an
entrepreneur and instead will focus on economic cooperation.
This is
exactly how China operates in the region. Beijing has been successful in its
dealings with Central Asia involving security and economic cooperation because
it does not bring a political agenda to the table. As a result, Central Asian
leaders feel comfortable as there is no pressure.
But the
most important factor is Trump’s regular praise for Putin, since Russia has so
much influence over the region through economic and political blocs, such as
the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Taking
this Russian influence into account and the fact that the Russian media been
has never been so over the moon with a US president-elect, Central Asia’s
leaders are inclined to have the same feel-good expectations of Trump.
Over the
past five years, Putin has strengthened Russia’s foothold in the region through
the SCO and the EEU and by successfully dealing with political issues. In 2012,
the Kremlin put pressure on Kyrgyzstan President Almazbek Atambaev that
eventually forced the United States to close its air force base in the country.
It is odd
how Trump continually compliments brutal dictators. Apart from Putin, who is
for him a “strong leader,” Trump even praised Iraq’s Saddam Hussein for being
good at fighting terrorism and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un for his leadership
skills. He said of Kim: “If you look at North Korea, this guy, I mean, he’s
like a maniac, okay? But he goes in, he takes over, and he’s the boss. It’s
incredible.”
Trump
made numerous statements during his campaign that raised doubts about his
commitment to fundamental democratic principles like press freedom, judicial
independence, the rule of law, and the rights of women and minorities.
It is
clear he prefers authoritarian methods over democracy, which is why human
rights organizations, for the first time in recent history, feel at odds with
the United States. Freedom House, for example, has urged Trump to protect
“freedom of expression, freedom of assembly, freedom of religion, judicial
independence, the rule of law, and the promotion and protection of the rights
of minorities and women, so that the United States can be an example of
democracy at its best.”
Apart
from Kyrgyzstan, the other Central Asian countries have no experience of
democratic elections, with their Presidents-for-life usually becoming irritated
by US demands to embrace democratic processes.
Their
poor human rights records are constantly criticized in US State Department
reports and by American NGOs. Now these long- serving dictators feel are likely
to feel they are about to be given some respite under a Trump presidency.
The
Central Asian rulers are well-known for their narcissistic behavior, while
their paranoia has no limits.
Just last
month, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev had his face put on the new 10,000
tenge (US$30) banknote, while Tajikistan celebrated “President’s Day” on
November 16, an official national holiday introduced by President Emomali
Rahmon this year for people to celebrate his achievements. He also recently
brought in a law that carries a jail term for people who criticize him.
In
Uzbekistan, interim leader Shavkat Mirziyoyev won a crushing presidential
election victory earlier in December, but people expect little change from the
previous authoritarian regime of the late Islam Karimov, while, Turkenistan’s
President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow has a reputation for running one of the
world’s most repressive countries.
If Trump
disregards fundamental values such as human rights and democracy, the US will
stop being an example for such dictators, allowing them to thrive
with impunity.
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