Islamic State also bragged this summer that it could buy a nuclear
weapon from Pakistan. The suggestion is alarming given Pakistan's growing
stockpile and history of proliferation. Even if you ignore the risk of a
deliberate transfer – and many Pakistani officials do have a record of
double-dealing with terror groups – Pakistan is still a nation that moves
nukes in panel vans on surface roads.
Worst-Case Scenarios That Are More Likely Than You
Think
The
likelihood that a Russian charter airplane, Metrojet 9268, was felled by a bomb
after leaving Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, highlights how many national security
stories we may be missing – stories that pose at least as much of a threat
to the United States as the development of an Iranian nuclear weapon.
Consider: Al
Qaeda is still fixated on blowing up airplanes, a dream that may have just
played out in the Sinai. But other risks include loose nukes in Pakistan,
three-stage rockets in North Korea that can hit the United States, radiological
weapons on the Russian black market and the possibility that terrorists with a
demonstrated interest in biological warfare will make use of the next major
infectious disease outbreak to turn human beings into weapons.
All these
threats are getting worse. All might do even more damage, near-term, than Iran.
Start with
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, known as AQAP. The organization's top
bomb-maker, Ibrahim Hassan al-Asiri, is still at large – and still
innovating. Six years ago, Asiri pioneered the implanted explosive device. He
planted the first-known cavity bomb in his own brother, who blew himself up in
front of Saudi Arabia's Prince Mohammad bin Nayef. That same year, Asiri was
implicated in the Underwear Bomber plot.
By 2010, he
had moved on to a new idea: plastic explosives stashed in printer cartridges
that were then placed aboard cargo planes. Two years later, he was
collaborating with doctors to design new surgical techniques for planting his
body bombs.
That none of
these plots has succeeded (yet) is a credit to counterterrorism officials in
the United States and allied nations. But we have to be right every time; Asiri
only needs one lucky break.
Meanwhile,
AQAP is carving out safe haven in Yemen, a nation that has fallen apart. While
trying to counter rebels in Yemen backed by Iran, the Saudi air campaign has empowered
Sunni extremists, including al Qaeda and Islamic State. The chaos will give
Asiri and his pupils more room to practice.
Islamic
State also bragged this summer that it could buy a nuclear weapon from
Pakistan. The suggestion is alarming given Pakistan's growing stockpile and
history of proliferation. Even if you ignore the risk of a deliberate
transfer – and many Pakistani officials do have a record of double-dealing
with terror groups – Pakistan is still a nation that moves nukes in panel
vans on surface roads.
It's also
the country with the world's fastest growing nuclear arsenal. When Pakistani
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif visited Washington last month, he failed to dispel
US concerns about the vulnerability of his country's weapons programs. Leaders
in Washington and New Delhi are rightly alarmed about Pakistan's talk of
developing tactical nukes for battlefield use. Not only would those weapons
risk escalating conflict between India and Pakistan, they would also be catnip
for Islamic State, the Taliban, and al Qaeda.
To the east,
North Korea has restarted its reactor at Yongbyon and rolled out a new
long-range missile – that may be capable of hitting the United States. The
Hermit Kingdom has shown no signs of reining in its aggression and may be
preparing for its fourth nuclear test. The country is also notorious for arms
trafficking and proliferation.
In 2007,
Israel destroyed a Syrian-North Korean nuclear plant in territory now
controlled by Islamic State. If the Kim regime does make progress on its
weapons of mass destruction programs, those nuclear, chemical and biological
advances risk showing up in terrorist hands around the globe.
Nuke
smuggling is also good business in Eastern Europe, especially in Moldova, where
authorities have only scratched the surface of a black market. Russian criminal
vendors are reported to be actively seeking jihadist buyers, particularly those
looking to harm the West. In Syria, where Russia's intervention has frozen a
disastrous status quo, chemical warfare continues. The fierce maelstrom now
offers Sunni extremist groups a laboratory for their darkest dreams.
How long
before chlorine bombs show up in Turkey, Jordan or Israel? How long before
Islamic State cobbles together its first radiological weapon – a dirty
bomb bound for Ankara, Amman or Tel Aviv?
In a new
report, the Blue Ribbon Study Panel on Biodefense warns that we're not paying
enough attention to the third leg of the WMD triad: germ warfare. Former
Senator Joe Lieberman, the panel's co-chairman and former chairman of the
Senate Homeland Security Committee, said this week that he's shocked no
jihadist group had yet pulled off a biological attack and warned that the
United States is dangerously unprepared for plots that are less complicated
than most probably think.
Islamic
State's drive to show viciousness – burning some captives alive, beheading
others, torturing and enslaving even more – leaves little doubt that the
extremist group might be willing to use toxins, germs or radioactive material
in a major international plot. Its access to major population centers in the
Middle East points to the potential for catastrophic harm.
Policymakers
must consider that the lone wolf, armed with a bread knife and radicalized in
his basement, may not be the era's only short-term danger.
Counterterrorism
is a science of worst-case scenarios. The risk of a game-changing plot is
always small, but the kind of "black swan" events that could reshape
the region look more and more real today. Better to overestimate the threat now
than read about it in the papers tomorrow.
Jane Harman
served nine terms as a California congresswomen in the House of
Representatives, where she was the ranking Democrat on the House intelligence
committee from 2002 to 2006. She is now president and chief executive of the
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
Reuters
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