Tuesday, November 17, 2015

A China view of the TPP and TIPP, FTAPP

TPP is the first agreement between the four small countries, and later the United States Senate come to dominate, and guide the entire negotiations. 美国的几个目的,第一,把TPP打造成和TIPP United States several purposes, the first, the TPP fight and TIPP
相似的高大上的FTA,引导21世纪的世界贸易的规则和方向。 FTA on similar tall, rules and guide the direction of the 21st century world trade. 第二,压制中国这个对手。 Second, pressing China opponent. 当然第一为主,第二为辅。 The first main course, second supplement. 其实如果第一实现了,第二就容易得多。 In fact, if the first implementation, the second will be much easier. TPP是真得高大上,几乎无所不包,从货物到服务,从投资到知识产权,从环境到劳工保护,更牛的是基本取消了发展中国家优待,全面零关税,没有例外。 But TPP is really tall, almost everything from goods to services, from investment to intellectual property rights, from the environment to labor protection, more cattle are basically canceled the preferential treatment of developing countries, comprehensive zero tariff, without exception. 中国谈TPP比较多的是里面似乎专门对付中国的招数,禁止国营企业,不许国家补贴,全部原产地等等。 Chinese talk TPP more is there to fight against China's tactics seem to prohibit state-owned enterprises, and not state subsidies, and so on all the country of origin.

TPP真得太高大上,东盟里面的其他成员国耐不住了,2012年抛出了RCEP But the TPP really too tall, the other Member States of ASEAN which have lost, and in 2012 threw out the RCEP. 现在都说RCEP是中国用来对抗美国的,可这都不是中国自己的主意,是东盟送上门来的。 China now say RCEP is used against the United States, but this is not China's own idea, ASEAN fingertips. RCEPTPP的主要差别就是以货物贸易为起点,逐步推进到服务,投资等领域,是渐进的方式,而TPP是一次到位。 The main difference RCEP and TPP is to trade in goods as a starting point, and gradually advancing to the field of services, investment and so on, it is gradual, rather TPP is a place. 阿三比较惨,TIPP没他的事,TPP也没他的事,就牢牢抓住RCEP 但就是在RCEP里,阿三也是最落后的,现在有消息说为了在2015年实现RCEP,要先抛弃阿三,让阿三以后补课。 Asan more miserable, TIPP did his thing, TPP did his thing, then firmly grasp the RCEP, but that is in RCEP, the Asan is the most backward, and now there is news that in order to achieve RCEP in 2015, to First abandon Asan, let Asan after makeup. 最好玩的就是,TPPRCEP里面的亚太国家的重合性,日本,韩国,澳大利亚,新西兰都是脚踏两只船。 The most fun is, TPP and RCEP inside coincidence Asia-Pacific countries, Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand are the foot in both camps. 美国要以TPP对付中国,没那么容易,因为TPP里面的国家不会轻易为了美国的利益而牺牲自己和中国的贸易关系,连日本都这样,何况别人? US To TPP deal with China, not so easy, because there TPP countries will not easily sacrifice for the benefit of himself and the United States trade relations with China, and even Japan are so, not to mention the others?

就是更大的一个框了,把TPPRCEP都能装进去。 FTAPP is a bigger box, and the TPP and RCEP can be installed inside. 中国现在开始在FTAPP上发力,美国的态度很反对但不彻底。 China now on FTAPP force, the US attitude very much opposed, but not completely. 美国的机构估算,TPP能让美国贸易增加1600亿美元,能让中国减少1000亿美元,但FTAPP能让美国每年增加6000亿美元,但让中国增加一万六千亿美元。 US agency estimates, TPP make US $ 160 billion increase in trade, allowing China to reduce $ 100 billion, but FTAPP allow increased US $ 600 billion a year, but let the Chinese to increase $ 1.6 trillion. 这个也说明老美现在搞中国有点本末倒置,宁可不利己也要损人。 This also shows that China is now engaged in a little old beauty cart before the horse, but also harm people would rather not self-interest. 美国虽然在口头上没有完全否决FTAPP,因为美国的算盘是先通过TPP,然后用TPP引导FTAPP,把FTAPP变成个大号TPP(有中国在,估计难度不小,哈哈)。 Although the United States did not completely reject FTAPP in words, because the United States is the first by abacus TPP, TPP and then guide FTAPP, the FTAPP become a large TPP (with Chinese in the estimated difficulty is not small, ha ha). 中国则是开始全力推进FTAPP China is beginning to promote FTAPP. 最近亚投行的事情表明,美国控制力在下降,美国反对,但中国想干的事,还是可能成功的,关键看中国自己怎么办,是否能有效地推进自己的目标。 Asian investment bank's recent thing that the United States control in the fall, the United States opposed, but China wanted to do something, or likely to be successful, the key to China's own how to do, whether it can effectively promote their goals.

就算实现了,中国还是有很多选择的。 TPP even if realized, China still has a lot of choice.



但TPP真得太高大上,东盟里面的其他成员国耐不住了,2012年抛出了RCEP。现在都说RCEP是中国用来对抗美国的,可这都不是中国自己的主意,是东盟送上门来的。RCEP和TPP的主要差别就是以货物贸易为起点,逐步推进到服务,投资等领域,是渐进的方式,而TPP是一次到位。阿三比较惨,TIPP没他的事,TPP也没他的事,就牢牢抓住RCEP, 但就是在RCEP里,阿三也是最落后的,现在有消息说为了在2015年实现RCEP,要先抛弃阿三,让阿三以后补课。最好玩的就是,TPP和RCEP里面的亚太国家的重合性,日本,韩国,澳大利亚,新西兰都是脚踏两只船。美国要以TPP对付中国,没那么容易,因为TPP里面的国家不会轻易为了美国的利益而牺牲自己和中国的贸易关系,连日本都这样,何况别人?



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