The US Poseidon spy plane
On 7 December 2015, the US and Singapore signed the enhanced defense
cooperation agreement. Under it, both countries pledged to work together on
five key areas: military, strategic, policy, technology and non-traditional
security challenges such as cybersecurity to counterterrorism. Of significance
is the announcement that Singapore has allowed the US to operate a fleet of
Poseidon spy planes from its bases.
This move
comes at a time of heightened tensions in the South China Sea. For months now,
the US has criticised China’s building of artificial islands, calling it ‘out of step
with international rules’ — especially when it came to light that it
has been steadily deploying defensive structures, air defense systems and
paving airstrips in the islands.
Despite
Beijing’s contention that the islands are for civilian purposes, the US views
this build-up as China’s attempt at strengthening existing power projection capabilities.
In recent
years, the Obama Administration has stepped up the US’ security presence in
Singapore, deploying two littoral combat ships to the city-state. Clearly, the
Poseidon deployment is part of a bigger strategy by the US to contain China by
not allowing it to fundamentally shift the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific
region.
China
expressed discontent with the deployment, calling it an act of ‘militarisation’
by the US and maintained that the situation in the South China Sea is peaceful
and stable. China also argued that the deployment ‘goes against the common and
long-term interests of countries in the region.’
This is
ironic since countries in the region – namely Japan and Southeast Asia nations
– have grown increasingly nervous about China’s unilateral posturing and
disregard for international law in making its maritime claims.
For its
part, Singapore faces a tricky situation of appeasing both the US and China.
China is
Singapore’s largest trading partner and Singapore has been a significant
investor in China for many years. While China has not placed any blame on
Singapore for the deployment, the city-state was equally careful to position
the agreement with the US under the ambit of ‘relationship building’ and
‘humanitarian and disaster relief’.
Singapore
relies on the US for the sale of arms, and access to its bases for the conduct
of training and joint-exercise operations for its servicemen. The Poseidon
deployment also assuages Singapore’s concerns over the unfolding situation in
the South China Sea.
The
disquieting fact is that the disputed waters in the South China Sea are a
flashpoint for an all out war between the US and China. Although there have not
been any skirmishes, both sides have resorted to employing maneuvers to see
which side blinks first.
In May
last year, a P8 Poseidon flew over the contested waters in the South China Sea
only to have the Chinese Navy issue numerous warnings for the American aircraft
to leave the area.
In
October, the USS Lassen, a destroyer sailed within 12 nautical miles of one of
the islands claimed by China in the Spratly Islands. The Chinese promptly
issued a warning to the Americans, stating that a minor incident could escalate
into full-scale conflict.
It would
serve us well to be reminded that in 2001, a EP-3 Aries spy plane collided with
a Chinese fighter jet, 50 miles southeast of China’s Hainan Island causing a
international dispute between the two countries. The Chinese fighter crashed
into the sea, killing the pilot, while the American plane was forced to land in
Hainan where 24 of its crew were detained and interrogated before being
released. (For more on this see the CRS report to Congress.)
Now as
Washington strengthens its resolve and Beijing refuses to back down, the real
question is how far either side is going to go before things really get out of
hand.
Patrick Sagaram lives in Singapore and works
as a teacher.
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