Lighten up Chicken
Little …
Whenever
the western press gets bored with stock market events in China something always
happens to get their Chicken Little meters ticking again.
Things got a bit snoozy over the last couple of weeks as government
measures restored some stability to stock prices. But China’s benchmark
CSI300 index .CSI300
of the biggest listed stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed down nearly 4% on
Tuesday, while the Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC
dropped 3.55% to close at 3,004, just above the psychologically important 3,000
level. Stocks are down 6% so far this week.
The latest commentary out of New York and London conjures up images of
Chinese regulators jumping off cliffs as their market-calming efforts go
unheeded, and Beijing frantically hunts for fresh sources of cash to kick-start
the economy and spend its way out of the crisis.
“Chinese authorities have seized up to 1 trillion yuan ($157 billion) from
local governments who failed to use their budget allocations, sources said, as
Beijing looks for ways to spend its way out of an economic slowdown,” Reuters reported
yesterday.
Shades of 2008 when the US also flipped open its stimulus wallet to
repair the damage inflicted by a Made-in-America (global) subprime crisis. But
Asia Unhedged notes the big difference here is that China has the money to burn
and its economy (even as it slows) will be growing at a 6%-7% clip that will be
the envy of the world. When state news agency Xinhua reported
last week that China was mulling spending 1 trillion yuan ($188 billion) over
the next three years to spur economic growth, few observers doubted that it
could come up with the money.
True, many Chinese investors are hesitant to
re-enter the market because they fear a slowing economy will take the fire out
of future stock advances. But eventually a bottom will be found. It may be that
the Shanghai Composite Index will have to go down to 2,500 before significant
buying returns. But it will happen. This is because the long-term outlook for
Chinese growth is still upbeat. The government also has more fiscal and
monetary options at its disposal. By Asia Unhedged
No comments:
Post a Comment