Indonesia is growing at 6 percent, has
rejoined the ranks of investment-grade nations, and after decades under the
corrupt and repressive Suharto, has reaffirmed its place as the world’s
third-largest democracy. Yet somehow enough Indonesians remember the Suharto
years fondly that his Golkar Party has hopes of regaining power in
upcoming elections
Golkar isn’t alone in trying to exploit nostalgia for past
strongmen (and -women). India’s Congress Party is trying to squeeze any
remaining good feelings about the Nehru-Gandhi period (from 1947 to about 1989)
to elevate lackluster heir apparent Rahul Gandhi. Even as China’s Xi
Jinping pushes ahead with market reforms, he continues to pay homage to
Communist icon Mao Zedong(1949-1976). Thais are destroying their economy
rather than cut off support for tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra (2001-2006)
and his sister Yingluck. Many Malaysians wax sentimental about the boom days
of Mahathir Mohamad (1981-2003). Japanese are indulging Shinzo
Abe’s dangerous stroll down memory lane.
What gives with nostalgianomics? The yearning for yesteryear
speaks to our disorienting times and a dearth of visionary leadership when it’s
most needed. This is an upside-down era when the unthinkable has a way of
becoming reality: The US is a developing nation again; Europe is hitting up
“poor” China to bail out its debt markets; central banks have gone Islamic with
zero-interest rates everywhere; the free trade that once raised living
standards now foments poverty. Many simply want to get off this crazy ride.
That’s a problem in a dynamic global economy that is
constantly reinventing itself. It’s natural to pine for a less-frenzied
existence, but looking to the past for policy solutions courts economic
decline. Unless nations reinvent themselves and plan ahead now, they’ll get
left behind.
Across Asia, there are too many examples of populations
still fixated on worldviews that no longer exist. The forces of globalization
won’t slow down as nations reminisce. Neither will the biggest migration flows
in history, the dizzying pace of change in technology, the need to compete with
neighbors as much as cooperate, nor the deadly effects of climate change. These
are simply the conditions of our new world.
Amid such upheaval, those at the helm must lead their people
forward. They must innovate constantly, promote dialogue about how best to
exploit global developments, and manage plural societies. When their citizens
start looking to the past for inspiration, today’s leaders must take the hint and
do better.
Nostalgianomics is related to the cult of gross domestic
product that started with Japan. Its swift rise from the ashes of World War II
set the bar high for leaders from South Korea to Indonesia. Fond memories of a
Japan-like post-war boom under Park Chung Hee (1961-1979) helped
propel daughter Park Geun Hye into the Korean presidency. Japanese
long for a return to their boom years so much that they’re willing to turn a
blind eye to Prime Minister Abe’s nationalistic ways and retrograde foreign
policy.
The Mahathir schmaltz pervading Malaysia recalls
the days when GDP there, too, soared. But the insular and jury-rigged system of
affirmative action, national champions and fat subsidies over which Mahathir
presided now holds the economy back. The Malaysian leader also had a tendency
to embarrass his nation on the international stage with his nutty anti-Semitic
tirades. Malaysians must find fresh inspiration by looking forward, not back to
1990.
The same holds true across the region. As Singaporeans try
to balance the open immigration flows that drive growth with rising social
tensions and inequality, they won’t find answers by harking back to the heady
days of Lee Kuan Yew (1959-1990). They need to identify and empower a
new generation of progressive leaders.
No one really worries about a revival of Mao’s disastrous
economic policies in China. But not until Beijing stops pretending that the
Great Helmsman remains a guiding inspiration — and removes his portrait from
the Tiananmen gate in central Beijing — will it enjoy the global legitimacy it
craves.
Abe’s wistfulness about a time when Japan was a military
powerhouse, its pacifist constitution wasn’t an American creation, and war
crimes of past leaders didn’t anger neighbors or implicate his grandfather is
proving especially dangerous. At some point Japanese are going to have to ask
themselves how much more leeway they’re willing to grant their prime minister
in the hopes that he can revive growth — something that remains in doubt.
Asia is hardly alone, of course. In the US, the slow
recovery under President Barack Obama has some looking back fondly to
the wreckage that was the George W. Bush years. Europe’s many crises
and waning competitiveness have voters in Barcelona and Milan missing the
pre-euro days. And how else do you explain Vladimir Putin’s lasting
presence in in Russia?
Musing over the past helps humankind avoid repeating its
mistakes. But looking at yesteryear with rose-tinted glasses encourages
policies and styles of leadership that are no longer relevant in a
fast-changing Asia. The more voters yearn to go back, the more they may suffer
in the future.
William Pesek is a Bloomberg View columnist.
No comments:
Post a Comment