The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India [TAPI] gas pipeline project
has been making progress — albeit under the radar and visible only to keen
observers — during the past year. The fact that Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif chaired a meeting of the petroleum ministers
of the TAPI member countries in Islamabad today would signal that the project
is likely approaching the takeoff stage.
The
presence of the Indian minister Dharmendra Pradhan in Islamabad also
underscores that the climate of the India-Pakistan relations could be
transforming. Conceivably, there has been gentle prodding by the United States
from behind the curtain. The American oil companies have shown interest in the
project, including in equity participation. But, more than that, TAPI forms a
template in the US’ New Silk Road strategies. Unsurprisingly, US and Japan have
a renewed interest in the TAPI as a mega regional project against the backdrop
of China’s rival Asian Infrastructure Development Bank and the ‘Belt and Road’
strategies. Interestingly, the president of the Asian Development Bank [ADB]
Takehiko Nakao visited Delhi last week and met Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
However,
the esoteric ‘great game’ apart, if the TAPI project takes off, that would do a
world of good to India-Pakistan relations, which is the key point here from our
point of view. The project’s uniqueness is that it could make Pakistan a
‘stakeholder’ in stable relationship with India – and vice versa. More
importantly, it enables the two countries to bury the backlog of the past and
move on to a new phase in the geopolitical arena where the stabilization of
Afghanistan becomes a shared concern rather than an issue of rivalry. The
single biggest element of distrust in the Pakistani mind about India’s
intentions would also get removed – namely, Pakistan’s suspicions regarding
Indian activities in Afghanistan.
Prime
Minister Modi has paid great attention to improving India’s relations with
China. That is indeed far-sighted statesmanship. But, on the contrary, he has
relegated the Pakistan policies to the back burner; in fact, this state of play
recently drew a pointed observation by President Pranab Mukherjee. (See my blog
The President jogs Modi’s
memory.)
In the
absence of PM’s forceful political guidance, bit players have got onto the
driving seat and that always holds the danger of creating a vicious chain of
actions and reactions, which at some point spins out of control. The recent
move by the Indian border authorities to detain the Pakistani truck drivers (in
contravention of the bilateral protocol) is a typical example. The border trade
between the divided halves of Kashmir has got suspended.
And this happened at a time when the formation of a coalition government
between the PDP and the BJP in J&K is on the cards.
Prime
Minister Modi needs to connect the dots in the ‘big picture’. The improvement
of India-China relations should go hand in hand with the resumption of
India-Pakistan dialogue. That is the optimal way India could exploit the new
opportunities opening up via its upcoming membership of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization to meaningfully contribute to regional security and
stability (and also create an external environment most conducive for the
pursuit of our development agenda.) The PM’s ‘out-of-the-box’ thinking on China
relations is very impressive. He needs to adopt a similar forward-looking
approach toward Pakistan — and take a leap of faith. To be sure, the TAPI
project can be a game changer. Prime Minister Sharif has signaled his personal
commitment. Asia Times
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