They’re Back!
Filipino politics are in their usual state of uproar, with the wheels
coming off the presidency of Benigno S. Aquino.
PNoy’s own uncle, Jose “Peping”
Cojuangco Jr., has acknowledged that he is among those demanding that Aquino
step down over the mishandling of a police raid in January that cost the lives
of 44 elite policemen trying to capture a couple of Islamic rebels.
But
nor is Aquino alone
Jejomar Binay, the vice president and
the man to beat in the 2016 presidential elections, has been caught in the
coils of a series of scandals involving inordinate wealth, including the latest
in which, as national head of the Boy Scouts, he allegedly allowed the scouts to
be shortchanged on a land deal. Other prospective candidates are struggling to
free themselves from the massive “Pork Barrel” scandal of 2013 in which dozens
of senators and congressmen were found to be pocketing redevelopment funds
aimed at improving infrastructure in their districts.
In the case of Aquino’s friend and putative successor Manuel A. Ramos,
he has been sunk by ineptitude. One group of students, clerics and others want
Jojo Binay, Senate President Franklin Drilon, House Speaker Feliciano Belmonte Jr. and
others all to step down for “system and reform
change.”
But there seems one politician who is handling affairs with aplomb –
along with his family. In a startling burst
of forgetfulness, the Filipino electorate seems to have forgiven the Marcos
clan for looting the country of as much as US$10 billion from the Philippine
treasury. He is Sen. Ferdinand Marcos Jr., chairman of the Senate Committee on
Local Government and Autonomy, who has led hearings in connection with the
massacre in Mamasapano in which the police died. Despite the fact that his
family perpetrated the biggest scandal in Filipino history, the Marcoses seem
to be doing just fine politically.
Bong Bong, as he is known, is the son of the former strongman Ferdinand
Marcos, who led the country to ruin during his 21 years in office, ending with
the People Power Revolution that brought 2 million Filipinos into the streets.
The family was forced to flee to Hawaii. The country has been on a slow recovery path
since.
The successful passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law, the historic peace
treaty negotiated by Aquino with the Moro Liberation Front, is largely
dependent on how committed Bong Bong is to
sponsoring the legislation’s passage through the Congress. That, according to
the country risk firm Pacific Strategies and Assessments, has propelled him
into the limelight and raised his profile enough to be considered a vice
presidential candidate to fill the vacuum being left by the imploding campaigns
of several politicians.
Marcos suspended hearings into the Bangsamoro agreement after the
Mamasapano tragedy. Amid hearings into whether or not Aquino had botched the
raid himself, Marcos told reporters that the Bangsamoro pact was akin to being
in a coma.
“Comatose is a term that once might have described the Marcoses’
political prospects as they went into self-exile in Hawaii ,” according to a
report by Pacific Strategies & Assessments, a Manila-based country risk
firm. “Charged with graft, corruption and money laundering in Philippines and
United States, the Marcoses saw their reputedly ill-gotten wealth and assets
seized and their bank accounts frozen. Under the administration of President
Corazon Aquino the Marcoses were classified as threats to national security and
barred from returning to the country.”
In a sense, the fact that they are back is complicated by the fact that
they have really never been gone. In 1990, Bong Bong’s mother, the former First
Lady, Imelda of the 3,000 pairs of shoes, was cleared
in a New York courtroom on charges of having illegally transferring billions of
dollars out of the Philippines and the family returned home and immediately
jumped back into the political arena despite convincing evidence that they had
stolen the country blind.
In the intervening years the Marcoses have manage to protect both their
economic and political capital, according to PSA. Now, given Bong Bong’s position of leverage in
the Senate, the Marcos name is moving up the political A-lists again.
Their political resurrection began with Bong Bong’s election as representative of the second district of Ilocos
Norte Province after having previously represented that district from 1980-1983
when his father was still president. After one term in Congress, he was elected
governor of Ilocos Norte in 1998, a position which he held for nine years. In
2007, he went back to Congress and in 2010 ran and won a seat in the Philippine
Senate.
Imelda is presently serving her second term as his replacement in the
lower house while his sister Maria Imelda or Imee is also on her second term as
governor of Ilocos Norte.
“The failure of government lawyers to secure decisive convictions in the
hundreds of cases filed against the Marcoses, their purported cronies, and
cousins from the Romualdez clan has undeniably contributed to the dynasty’s
reestablishment, albeit limited at first in their local strongholds of Ilocos
Norte and Leyte provinces,” PSA said.
Bong Bong’s successful bid to the
nationally elected Senate in 2010 “has undeniably paved the way for a return of
the Marcoses to the national and popular consciousness. Admittedly, this has
coincided with the changing demographics of Philippine voters, the majority who
only know about the plundering and human rights abuses of the Martial Law years
from what they read in history books.”
The PSA report, available only to subscribers, says that groups who call
themselves “Marcos loyalists” have in the last couple of years launched social
media and information campaigns to revise the prevailing historical rendering
of the Martial Law years. The propaganda campaign pits the supposed
infrastructural, peace and order, and economic accomplishments of the
authoritarian regime against the traffic jams, infrastructural inadequacies,
and continuing security issues that have beleaguered the incumbent
administration.
Thus, PSA reports, groups have called for
Marcos to make a run for the presidency when Aquino steps down in 2016. At 57
years, Marcos is poised to make a strong, if not a decent bid for the
presidency, or at least enough to stake a claim for political vengeance.
Why does he matter?
“As chair of the committee responsible for sponsoring and advancing the
Bangsamoro Basic Law in the Senate, Bong Bong Marcos has the opportunity of
frustrating the Aquino administration’s already disintegrating peace agenda.”
In recent interviews, PSA said, Marcos has indicated that deliberations on the
proposed legislation under his committee will not resume until officials
involved in the planning and execution of the Maguindanao operation are held
accountable. The rest of the PSA
report is here:
It is however unlikely that he will do so deliberately or with the
intent of pouncing against the administration of the Marcoses’ political rival.
Since his election to the Senate, Marcos’ political moves have remained
calculated – avoiding issues and statements that would draw attention to
past antagonisms. While he has not demonstrated the oratorical eloquence of his
father, Senator Marcos has consistently presented himself in public in a calm,
rational, and good-humored manner. With a number of cases still pending against
his family, Senator Marcos’ temperament is judiciously composed.
Bong Bong’s membership and leadership in the Nacionalista Party that is
in a coalition with the Liberal Party-led Aquino administration is also likely
to shape his political strategy. In 2012, voting differently from his mother,
Marcos supported the Aquino government’s Reproductive Health legislation.
Marcos, however, opposed the Aquino endorsed “sin tax” legislation that raised
excise taxes for tobacco and alcohol commodities – an expected move to
protect the interests of reputed former Marcos cronies operating in the tobacco
and alcohol industry.
In 2014, Imelda Marcos reportedly indicated her desire to see Bong Bong
installed as the next president. His party mate Senator Alan Peter Cayetano had
also signified his intention to run. But between Marcos’ consensual and
deliberative approach and Cayetano’s penchant for media sensationalism,
campaign experts and analysts say voters will be more receptive towards Senator
Marcos. Between him and Cayetano, Marcos is also more likely to cooperate with
the administration in rehabilitating plans for a peaceful resolution with
Muslim insurgents.
What to look for
PSA sources close to the Marcoses say the dynasty is ready and has
started mobilizing their remaining political and economic capital for Bong Bong
Marcos’s future plans.
Nonetheless, whether or not Marcos runs in 2016 for the presidency or as
some sources say more likely for the vice presidency indicates how the family
through Senator Marcos, Governor Imee, and Congresswoman Imelda as well as the
Romualdezes of Leyte will continue to utilize the country’s political
institutions and processes to, at the very least, demonstrate their enduring
influence.
How the Aquino administration will exploit the interests of the Marcoses
to advance the government’s goals in Mindanao will most likely involve
political trade-offs. What is clear, however, is the opportunity now affords
the Senator a bargaining chip inside and outside his political party to
negotiate a Marcos comeback.
Asia Sentinel
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