Elections in key states such as the US, Russia, India and Indonesia have always been important as their consequences extend far beyond their national borders. In this regard, Indonesia’s legislative election on April 9, 2014 was significant as it fortified its democracy but the predictions about the actual outcomes were not realised.
Either due to deliberate media hype to champion a particular political group or poor exit poll skills, there were many unexpected results. In turn, opening possibilities for various uncertainties in the coming first round of Indonesia presidential election scheduled for July 9.
PDI-P : The disappointed leading party
Months before the general elections, various surveys predicted that the leading political parties were likely to be the PDI-P, Golkar and Gerindra. This was proven right. However, the margin of victory was way off.
Hitherto, the opposition party, the Indonesian Democractic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), led by Ms Megawati, the daughter of Sukarno, leader of independent Indonesia, was expected to garner around 25 per cent of the total votes. According to Indonesian electoral rules, any party with 20 per cent of the parliamentary seats or 25 per cent of the total votes, alone or in coalition, could nominate a presidential and vice presidential candidate.
Various surveys expected the PDI-P to shoo in its presidential candidate.
The single leading star politician to emerge in the 2014 elections was Mr Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, the former mayor Solo and current Governor of Jakarta. Various polls predicted his political support to hover between 35 to 40 percent, far ahead of his next rival. Once he was named as the PDIP’s presidential candidate on March 14, some three weeks before the polls, the ‘Jokowi effect’ was expected to boost PDIP’s electoral support to around 30 percent or even more.
Unfortunately, alone or together with Mr Widodo, the party only garnered 19 percent of the electoral votes, forcing it to look for a coalition partner to partake in the presidential race. NasDem, a new party, quickly announced its decision to support Jokowi and with its 7 per cent electoral support, Jokowi became the first eligible presidential candidate.
PDI-P’s improved performance compared to the past was largely due to the nationwide anti-status quo sentiments against the government of president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, whose two terms presidency oversaw massive corruption, especially at the highest levels of government. The traditional Sukarnoist vote bank and probability of lesser electoral cheatings also allowed the PDI-P to emerge as the leading party in the coming parliament.
The Dent in the PDI-P’s Expected Support
A number of factors explained the inability of the PDI-P with Jokowi as its presidential candidate to perform well as was predicted. First, there was the high possibility of intense media hype, which has continued, by various print and electronic media as well as the various polling agencies. Whatever the reasons for the hype and unexplained optimism, it goes to show that Indonesia is yet to effectively master the techniques of accurate exit polls.
Probably more important were the other factors. While the PDI-P has a solid and loyal support base, it also suffered by its inability to break out from its old Sukarnoist mould, especially in view of the various pressing challenges facing Indonesia and where new political parties had also surfaced to put forth alternative policies and figures attractive to the younger voters. While the PDIP gained much sympathy, it had little to offer in terms of new national programmes.
This led Jokowi to blame to weak political machinery of the party for its lesser than expected results. While Jokowi was expected to boost the PDIP’s standing, naming him barely three weeks before the election did not provide sufficient time for him to impact the ground and voters. Also, in parliamentary elections, the importance of local candidates and conditions are probably more important, and hence, the limits of the ‘Jokowi effect’.
Another key factor that hurt the PDI-P was its success in hurting many of its hard core supporters on the one hand and antagonising the majority of the Muslim voters on the other, by naming Jokowi as its presidential candidate. A key reason for the PDIP’s failure to garner its expected 25 percent support was the failure of many PDI-P’s supporters to vote for the PDIP, leading to ‘golput’, meaning abstention, that benefitted the other parties.
More important was the anger of the majority of conservative Muslims against Jokowi and the PDI-P. First, the PDI-P has always been viewed as a party made up of non-Muslims, namely, Christians and if there are Muslims, they are mainly of the Abangan stream, namely, nominal Muslims. Second, as the PDI-P and especially Jokowi has been seen to be promoting non-Muslims, especially Catholics, there was the rise of the ‘negative Jokowi effect’, that hurt the PDI-P and will also have an important impact on its presidential ambitions.
The Coming Indonesia Presidential Election 2014
By May 18, Indonesia would know who its presidential and vice presidential candidates are. Most predictions have slated three group of candidates to contest the presidency, namely, Jokowi, Mr Prabowo Subianto, leader of Gerindra and Mr Aburizal Bakrie, leader of Golkar. While their running mates are still unconfirmed, coalition politics will be the key to the game. Some Muslim groups have called for the possibility of a ‘new Muslim Middle axis’ to champion Muslim causes in view of the respectable performance of the various Muslim parties in the election.
In view of the new post-election constellation, it would appear that Jokowi and his chosen Vice President are likely to face an uphill task and not an easy shoo-in as was and is being predicted by many. This is due to the various challenges facing him.
Jokowi’s Challenges
First, Jokowi remains largely a local figure. He is known in Solo and Jakarta but does not have a national following. This is a major handicap especially in a political culture that believes in patron-client relationships and where many other political parties and figures have been operating long before Jokowi surfaced as a presidential candidate.
He might have a celebrity status, like a dangdut singer or a national footballer but whether this can be converted into political support remains largely to be seen. It did not work during the legislative election and whether the ‘Jokowi effect’ will deliver during the presidential election is still unknown.
Second, Jokowi is still an unproven and untested commodity. Sure, he has done something in Solo as a mayor, a very small city compared to the challenges awaiting him to administer Indonesia. As Governor of Jakarta, he is yet to deliver on most of his promises and worst still, will be leaving the job and his promises mid-way, which has angered many of those who voted for him. Anyway, administering big or small cities, on the one hand, and the fourth largest state in the world, on the other, are miles apart, all the more as he has never held any political position nationally.
Third, Jokowi has already demonstrated that he can be a serious divisive force, best evident in not only angering many traditional PDIP supporters but also the Megawati family itself. Despite Megawati’s decision to name him as the presidential candidate, it is also clear that not all in the ‘first family’ are for Jokowi, with many believing that Puan Maharani, Ms Megawati’s daughter, has been largely lukewarm towards Jokowi compared to Megawati’s son from a previous marriage (Prananda Prabowo), who strongly supports Jokowi. Ms Megawati’s siblings have also pour scorn on Jokowi believing that he will only be reading for the presidency in 2019.
Fourth, Jokowi as a possible ‘puppet’ or ‘lame duck’ president, suffering the ‘Manmohan Singh syndrome’ has also been raised, in turn, undermining his appeal. Despite the brilliance the Manmohan Singh as an economic wizard, he had no key role in the Congress Party as it was totally controlled by Sonia Gandhi; hence, a Prime Minister with no political power, transforming him largely into an administrator at the behest of the political controllers in the Congress.
If elected as president, Jokowi stands the chance of repeating the Sonia Gandhi-Manmohan Singh history, leading to the possibilities of serious clashes of Jokowi with the PDI-P and its power brokers, all the more as Jokowi is only a PDI-P cadre with no strategic position in the party.
Hence, the question being asked is: if Jokowi becomes president, will political decisions be made by PDIP’s headquarters or the presidential palace?
Fifth, and probably the most fatal, will be Jokowi’s inability to reach out to the majority of the Muslim voters. Jokowi suffers from a number of liabilities. The PDI-P is seen largely as an Abangan party with many Muslims not even considering Abangans as Muslims, all the more at a time when Indonesia is going through Islamic revivalism, even radicalism.
Jokowi has also been blamed for promoting non-Muslims, especially Catholics, leading to fears that a Jokowi’s presidency will represent a threat to Muslims in general, especially through their disempowerment, with key political institutions controlled by non-Muslims.
Here, Jokowi’s legacy so far has been damning for most Muslims. Jokowi’s deputy as Mayor of Solo was Mr F.X. Hadi Rudyatmo, a Christian, took over as Mayor following Jokowi’s election as Jakarta’s Governor, in a city riddled with conservative Muslims and where many radical groups are also based.
Jokowi’s current deputy as Governor of Jakarta is Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, famously known as “Ahok”, a Chinese Christian, who is slated to take over as Governor of the nation’s capital city once Mr Widodo becomes president.
As Jakarta’s Governor, Jokowi introduced a system of auctioning the positions of district officers, resulting in Susan Jasmine, a Christian lady, becoming the Lurah (a civil servant as head of a district) of Lenteng Agung in South Jakarta, angering many Muslims, who have demanded her removal as it was deem insulting for Muslims.
Saving Jokowi?
The above factors have made it apparent that Jokowi is not all the powerful and attractive presidential candidate that he is often portrayed in the mass media. Indeed he suffers from manifold weaknesses and winning the presidency on his own merits is definitely not a certainty.
Being cognizant of these challenges facing him, the ‘Team 11″, a group of individuals designated by Megawati and the PDI-P’s top leaders, to select Jokowi’s running mate, has come to realise the vital importance of getting the ‘right candidate’ as Vice President to boost Jokowi’s chances of winning the top political job in Indonesia.
In this regard, so far, from the many, three key names have surfaced, namely, Mr Jusuf Kalla, the former vice president under President Yudhoyono (during his first term in 2004-2009) and a key Golkar leader, Mr Mahfud MD, the former defence minister under President Gus Dur and a key PKB member and General Ryamizard Ryacudu, the former Army Chief.
Analytically, it would appear that the most likely choice of running mate for Indonesia presidential election 2014 would be General Ryamizard, the highly respected general who was bypassed by President Bambang for the post of Chief of Armed Forces even though President Megawati had nominated him for the post in 2004.
General Ryamizard as Jokowi’s vice president candidate
General Ryamizard’s assets are believed to be credible enough to be the game changer that can win Jokowi the Indonesia presidential election 2014 in July. First, is Ryamizard’s unblemished credibility as a first-class General and soldier. He is often regarded as Indonesia’s modern-day Gadjah Mada, the legendary general during the Majapahit empire.
Second, Mr Ryamizard’s innate knowledge of national security will place him well to complement Jokowi’s presidency in terms of enhancing national security and overcoming internal and external threats.
Thirdly, is the high acceptability of General Ryamizard by all Muslim communities in Indonesia, especially the two largest national Muslim organisations, Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah as well as his ability to reach out to the conservative and even radical communities. This will provide Jokowi with an invaluable golden bridge to the Muslim voters which Jokowi greatly lack.
General Ryamizard also has the immense support of the powerful military lobby, especially the retired generals, which will be vital to strengthening Jokowi from various security challenges. The power and influence of Indonesia’s military can never be ignored or underestimated which President Yudhoyono, despite being from the military, tried to undermine by favouring the police but failed.
Not only is General Ryamizard greatly respected for being highly professional and morally upright, the influence of his extended family is equally important. His father, General Ryacudu was close to President Sukarno and later, a key Golkar leader. General Ryamizard’s father in law, General Try Sutrisono, a former Chief of Armed Forces and Vice President, is highly respected, by the military and the Muslim majority.
Mr Ryamizard is also highly respected by Ms Megawati, her family and the PDIP’s seniors. The great acceptability by the public of a highly non-corrupt, nationalist Indonesia, a non-Javanese, who symbolises duty to the nation at all cost and at the same time, highly regarded and respected by his political and non-political foes alike is an asset which is rare among Indonesians today.
This article was kindly contributed by Professor Bilveer Singh. Professor Singh, a specialist in Indonesian politics for more than 3 decades, works on political and security issues. He has written books on the Indonesian Armed Forces (ABRI/TNI), Dwifungsi, East Timor, Papua and Islamist Radicalism. He published a well-known book on Suharto’s succession with MacMillan in 2002.
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