Blurred Lines And New Means: Terrorism’s
Alarming New Dimensions – Analysis
Indeed, the recent Shangri-La Dialogue 2018 in
Singapore brings together defence officials to unpack the new dimensions of
terrorism and counter-terrorism in its plenary sessions. The dialogue is crucial
as current developments attest to the intractable nature of the problem.
The annual spring offensive by the Taliban underscores how terrorist
groups continue to be a destabilising force in Afghanistan. The war in Yemen
and recent launch of the jihadi propaganda outlet “Al-Badr”, named after a
fabled battle in AD 624, highlight the longevity of Al Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula.
Suicide attacks committed by jihadi families and the Depok prison riot
caused by inmates – both linked to the Islamic State (IS) – in Indonesia in May
2018 demonstrates how IS is far from defeated and evolving from a caliphate
into a transnational terrorist movement similar to Al Qaeda.
STRUGGLING TO CONTAIN TERRORISM
New dimensions of terrorism, the theme of a plenary at the Shangri-La
Dialogue, is a pertinent theme because the resilience of jihadi terrorist
groups is one of the primary reasons why the world is still struggling to
contain the problem 18 years after the 9/11 attacks.
For example, the shift in IS’ focus from its diminished position in the
Levant to the wider world – cities in non-conflict zones and other restive
regions – may reek of desperation but more importantly highlights how IS adapts
to counter-terrorism efforts by framing a battlespace that is unencumbered by
national borders.
This puts more pressure on the approaches that nations currently take to
coordinate operations and share intelligence at the international level while
upholding their sovereign interests.
The interaction of military and civilian targets in the urban
environment, given the need for soldiers to support police officers in joint
operations to deter and disrupt terrorist attacks, may blur the lines between
targets. Furthermore, any public concerns arising from certain socio-political
sensitivities over the separation of functions between the military and police
may influence counter-terrorism strategies.
Geopolitical developments such as the opening of the US embassy in
Jerusalem has inflamed sentiments of Palestinian victimhood, and by extension
sentiments of Muslim victimhood. This risks reinvigorating jihadi narratives,
which terrorist groups could espouse to galvanise their supporters and justify
domestic attacks against the West, their allies and their interests overseas.
DIFFICULTIES UNFOLD
Closer to home, Southeast Asia is seeing new dimensions of terrorism
unfolding with no clear solutions in sight.
The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Rakhine state risks engulfing the
region in an endless cycle of disenfranchisement that regional terrorist groups
could capitalise on to radicalise individuals.
The crisis complicates regional security (and humanitarian) cooperation
as, firstly, some soldiers there have been accused of abuses, secondly the
violence there has given rise to non-jihadi militancy among hardline Buddhist
groups, and thirdly whether the crisis is domestic or regional has become a
divisive issue.
The battle of Marawi may have ended but it revealed how the military may
be underprepared for an Aleppo scenario – urban takeover – happening beyond
Middle East.
Furthermore, Marawi has seen how terrorists can leverage new
technologies – consumer drones – to match the capabilities of security forces;
and the city is now seeing how rehabilitation – a key effort of
counter-terrorism – is potentially becoming an issue of geopolitical rivalry
given concerns over the involvement of Chinese construction firms even as the
US provides military aid.
The series of suicide attacks by jihadi families in Indonesia
demonstrates the operational difficulty of gathering intelligence on and
intercepting numerous foreign fighters and their radicalised families returning
home from the frontlines.
This by extension may give rise to the risk of these individuals
surreptitiously crossing the borders to launch attacks in neighbouring
countries.
Furthermore, security forces would need to gird for increased public
scrutiny especially if the use of necessary force to neutralise attackers who
are women and children risk inflaming anti-government sentiments, which
terrorists could then capitalise on.
ASEAN – MULTILATERALISM IS KEY
The current trajectory of terrorism increasingly blurs the lines between
domestic and international security. For example, IS foreign fighters are
combatants that the military must neutralise in the Levant. However, they also
constitute social and security challenges when they return home as well as pose
a cross-border security threat if they travel through other countries.
The situation in Syria shows how big power rivalry between Russia and US
may impede counter-terrorism actions at the frontlines, and even feed the
terrorist narratives. These issues, if not addressed, would only perpetuate
terrorism and frustrate counter-terrorism efforts.
These issues cannot be resolved unilaterally or bilaterally, but best
addressed through neutral multilateral platforms that facilitate international
cooperation in an open and inclusive way.
ASEAN is the key regional architecture in East Asia and beyond a “talk
shop”; it plays a central role in enabling multilateral platforms that
facilitate international counter-terrorism cooperation particularly in raising
awareness of emerging terror threats and reducing disparities in
counter-terrorism capacity among member countries.
Within ASEAN, the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) and ADMM-Plus
are key to maintaining good relations that underpin strong defence cooperation
in various areas; and engaging external partners such as China and US to build
confidence and lower the risk of miscalculations at the frontlines.
The ASEAN Political-Security Community, through its Convention on
Counter-Terrorism helps strategically in coordinating counter-terrorism
policies in the region. It operationally supports counter-terrorism efforts by
police forces through better information sharing on its enhanced database and
its partnership with other regional police organisations such as EUROPOL.
ASEAN member countries should stay united to ensure that the
architecture continues to work well and not be blindsided by new dimensions of
terrorism.
Southeast Asia is high on the jihadi terrorist groups’ agenda given the
region’s history of terrorist threats such as Jemaah Islamiyah and Al Qaeda,
and more currently groups that are associated with IS. These groups seek to
radicalise, manipulate, and divide the Muslim communities here, which make up
about 65 per cent of the global Muslim population.
Member countries should ensure that the state of their counter-terrorism
cooperation keeps pace with the trajectory of terrorism. This would require
reviewing existing multilateral initiatives – strategic and operational – and
adapting them to suit new dimensions of terrorism.
SINGAPORE – NAVIGATING THE WAY FORWARD
As the current chair of ASEAN in 2018, Singapore is in a good position
to advocate deeper cooperation at the strategic and operational levels among
the member countries to keep pace with the new dimensions of terrorism.
This position also stems from Singapore’s strong defence relations with
its neighbours and external partners, commitment to a rules-based international
order; and credibility in the form of a strong Armed Forces (SAF) and effective
homeland security organisations.
For example, the professional exchange on Urban Operations between the
SAF and Philippine Army at the Murai Urban Training Facility in December 2017
marks the blending of Singapore’s state-of-the-art urban operation capabilities
and Phillipines’ deep experience in combatting terrorists at the frontlines.
Moving forward, ASEAN member states and external partners should work
closely with Singapore to sustain good bilateral and multilateral relations,
and build confidence among themselves.
This would pave the way for deeper counter-terrorism cooperation that is
essential to first countering transnational terrorist threats that do not
respect national borders, and second adapting existing strategic and
operational CT initiatives to suit the changing terrorism landscape.
*Muhammad Faizal Abdul
Rahman is a Research Fellow with the Homeland Defence Programme at the Centre
of Excellence for National Security, a unit of the S Rajaratnam School of
International Studies at the Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
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