The potential game changer is President-elect Rodrigo Duterte who has
promised to break the past deadlocks in favour of a new federalism with a peace
agreement with the Muslims in the south.
The presumptive President-elect of
the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, is strategically positioned to break the
impasse in the Mindanao peace process that has dogged the security of the
country for decades. Peace has continued to defy the region due to Muslims’
historical grievances and distrust of the colonial powers in the past and of
the Catholic-dominated administrations in Manila since 1947.
The three key exceptions to this
trend were the 1976 Libyan-sponsored Tripoli agreement, the 1996 Autonomous
Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) agreement with the Moro National Liberation
Front (MNLF) and the signing of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro
(CAB) in March 2014. The CAP was to create a Bangsamoro political entity in
place of the ARMM. The 2014 agreement was derailed by the Mamasapano Incident
of January 2015 when more than 40 elite police troops were killed in an ambush.
Stalled and
Failed Peace Efforts
The political agreement between the
Philippine Government and the MNLF breakaway, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front
(MILF), was to be legislated into law through the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) by
Congress. Congress did not proceed with the passage of the BBL even though it
was the Philippine Government that unilaterally violated the CAB. The
congressional action was mainly motivated by its unwillingness to endorse the
peace deal and to the then forthcoming national elections scheduled in 18
months’ time. This made the BBL into a political football to gain votes.
The derailment of the peace deal
aggravated the security situation in the south. It also reinforced the
long-held Muslim perception that the Christian majority was never keen on peace
but only interested in marginalising the Muslims in the south.
However, the ‘business-as-usual’
policy cannot go on due to the changes in the national, regional and global
security landscape. This has to do with the rise of Islamist violent extremism
driven by developments in the Middle East with the self-proclaimed Islamic State
(IS) as the key player. The big question is – will Mindanao become Islamic
State’s headquarters for Southeast Asia as it was for the Al Qaeda in the past?
The failed peace process will definitely play a role in facilitating IS entry
into the region. However, this could be prevented if the president-elect
implements his promises. Why is there hope under Duterte?
Duterte as
Game-changer for Peace in Mindanao
Duterte’s possible game-changing
role can emanate from six key factors:
1. Mayor from the South
With a political career spanning
nearly 30 years, he is one of the longest serving mayors in the Philippines. In
addition to being Congressman and vice-mayor, he has served for seven terms as
mayor of Davao City, Mindanao. He is credited for bringing peace and development
to one of the most violent cities in the country. He was the Philippines’ first
mayor to give Muslim representation, appointing them as vice-mayors to
represent Muslim interests. Thus, he is grounded in southern politics and aware
of the intricacies of dealing with Muslim Mindanao. He has also claimed Moro
roots through his grandmother.
2. Man with Power and Legitimacy
Duterte enters office with a
powerful mandate. This will give him strong legitimacy to undertake change.
With a powerful political will and political capital, he is in a position to
break the intractable logjam in the south and deliver peace to the nation,
something he has promised to do.
3. President Who Fulfils his Promises
In the presidential campaign,
Duterte was the only candidate from Mindanao. He was also the only one who met
MILF leaders at their camp, talked of passing the BBL, spoke of the need to
address Muslim grievances and the importance of peace in Mindanao for the whole
of Philippines. The core of his policy to bring stability is to create a
federal system with the BBL as a keystone that can be applied nationwide.
He promised to convene a
Constitutional Commission to amend the 1987 constitution so that a new
political structure can be established. Duterte has stated that he intends to
appoint as his peace adviser Jesus Dureza, someone who had served as
presidential peace adviser to former presidents Arroyo and Ramos – thus
demonstrating that peace is a priority for him.
4. President Who Does the Right Thing
After decades of missed
opportunities, Filipinos have elected a man who is a deliverer. More important
is that what Duterte has to do is not driven by rhetoric but the right thing to
do. A failure to deliver the peace can lead to dire consequences. The MILF may
be forced to take up arms again and the other armed groups will lose what
little incentives there are to make peace with Manila. Such a situation can
also provide IS with a golden opportunity to establish its base in Mindanao to
threaten the Philippines and the wider Southeast Asian region. This will only
worsen the state of radicalisation and terrorism in the Philippines and
Southeast Asia as a whole. Hence, re-starting the peace process is vital for
national and regional peace and stability.
5. Right Man at the Right Time
After the failure of the 1996 ARMM
deal and the stalling of the 2014 CAB, the timing is right for the ‘man from
the outside’ to make a difference. Duterte has a golden opportunity to deliver
peace to the south and to the Philippines, something he has promised to do and
something that he is also in a position to deliver.
6. Differentiating from the Past
The 71-year-old president-elect has
an opportunity to break and differentiate himself from the past and leave
behind a legacy of peace for the country. He has an opportunity to deliver the
‘Davao City’ model of peace, development and security at the national level for
all to savour.
Philippines on
Cusp of Change?
The Philippines today stands on the
cusp of change – should Duterte walk the talk and deliver. At the vortex of
this is a newly-elected president, with immense track record and popularity,
and with near-revolutionary ideas of bringing the country to the next phase of
peace and development. The population is also craving for change. An integral
element in this shift is the peace agreement in the south. The dribbling of the
ball may finally have a chance to culminate in a peace goal to the benefit of
the nation and the wider region.
*Bilveer Singh, an Associate
Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, is an
Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Centre of Excellence for National Security
(CENS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang
Technological University
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