The candidates
MANILA–In
coming days, the Philippines will elect a new president. Arguably, the
forthcoming elections scheduled for Monday, May 9, are the country’s most
consequential in recent memory. Both the Philippines’ domestic and foreign
policy trajectory could take a dramatic turn depending on the composition of
the next administration.
Relishing years of above-average growth, the Philippines is currently
considered as among the new global economic stars. Some experts have gone so
far as to brand the Philippines as Asia’s next
tiger economy, while others have identified it as a breakout
nation on the verge of a long-term economic takeoff. The country is
currently the toast of the town among global
investors.
Hyperbole aside, the Philippines is, at the very least, no longer seen
as the “sick man of Asia.” Finally, it is tapping into its vast human capital,
natural resources, and demographic dividend. Under the stewardship of the
Benigno Aquino administration, the past few years have also seen noticeable
improvements in economic openness,
economic competitiveness
as well as the nascent fight against corruption.
In terms of foreign policy, the Aquino administration, especially after
the Scarborough
Shoal crisis in 2012, began to re-orient its foreign policy. Within
less than a decade, the Southeast Asian country switched from equilateral
balancing vis-à-vis America and China in favor of a counter-balancing strategy
— along with America and Japan — against China.
Today, the Philippines stands as the only country that has dared to take
China to international
court over maritime disputes. Filipino leaders, particularly
President Aquino as well as former Foreign Secretary Albert Del Rosario, have
been among the most vocal critics of China’s revanchist
policies in the South China Sea. No wonder then, the two countries
have had among the most toxic bilateral relationships in Asia.
Yet, as the Philippines elects new leaders, all of these could change in
coming months. Latest surveys suggest,
Rodrigo Duterte, Davao’s firebrand mayor, and Ferdinand “Bong Bong” Marcos Jr.,
the only son of the former Filipino dictator, are few steps away from claiming
the two highest positions in the Philippine state.
Duterte, at the moment, leads the polls as the country’s favored
presidential candidate, while Marcos Jr. is neck and neck for the vice
presidential spot. The other presidential candidates are Jejomar Binay (UNA),
Miriam Defensor Santiago (PRP), Mar Roxas (Liberal), Grace Poe (Independent),
and Apolonia Comia-Soguilon. The other vice presidential contenders include
Gringo Honasan (UNA) and Alan Peter Cayetano (Independent).
The latest survey puts Roxas at second with 22%, just ahead of Poe’s
21%. First place on the VP side is tied with Leni Robredo (Liberal) at 30% and
Marcos with 28%.
Rise of
strongmen
Duterte, a political outsider par excellence, is in an extremely
dominant position in the presidential race. He has promised to install a
decisive, single-minded type of leadership into office, though has barely
elaborated on the specifics of his policy agenda. Whether in front of market
vendors or facing the business elite, Duterte has presented relatively
identical sets of speeches, emphasizing his decades-long battle against crime,
drugs and corruption in Davao, the economic powerhouse of southern Philippines.
With a penchant for expletives and provocative statements, he has
consistently placed himself at the center of media discourse, often inviting
comparisons with the real estate mogul Donald Trump, who has, quite similarly,
upended the American political landscape. Recently, Duterte was on international
headlines due to a highly
controversial rape joke, which beckoned global condemnations,
including by the Australian and American embassies.
In response, Duterte went so far as to threaten to sever relations with
both countries, if elected, while telling the ambassadors of both countries to
“shut their mouths” and not interfere in the election campaign. Rarely has any
Filipino politician even dared to so brazenly challenge representatives of
stalwart allies such as America, a beloved former colonizer, which is deeply
popular among Filipinos. Surely, Duterte displayed, in the eyes of
some, ‘independence’ vis-à-vis Western powers. Similar to Narendra Modi in
India and Prabowo Subianto in Indonesia, Duterte has, with considerable
success, tapped into an emerging “democratic
fatigue” among ordinary citizens, who yearn for effective
governance and lament the seeming paralysis of democratically-elected
governments in recent decades.
After all, despite emerging as one of Asia’s fastest growing economies
in recent years, the Philippines still suffers
from high levels of poverty and underemployment, with rule of law still an
elusive aspiration. In the eyes of many, the Aquino administration has been a
major failure in terms of, among others, infrastructure development and
creation of an efficient public transpiration system.
Though more polished in his manners, Marcos Jr., who has attended
both Oxford University and Wharton, has similarly promised a new brand of
leadership, anchored by discipline and decisiveness. Seemingly unapologetic
about his father’s
destructive legacy, Marcos even dared to claim, quite astonishingly,
that the late dictator would have
turned the Philippines into a “Singapore” if not for the 1986
“People Power” revolution that ushered in democracy.
If victorious, the Duterte-Marcos tandem is expected to bring about
changes to the country’s domestic political landscape. Leading Philippine
experts have warned about the potential emergence of neo-authoritarianism
in the country, with potentially unfavorable consequences for basic civil
liberties.
A new
‘New Order’
To be fair, Marcos Jr. has never espoused martial law or return to
dictatorship. The more flamboyant Duterte, however, has threatened to
abolish the Philippine congress, while fondly suggesting
the prospect of “dictatorship.” Yet, it is far from clear whether he is serious
or just playfully jesting. But clearly, some people have been deeply alarmed by
the tough-talking mayor.
The Economist, a leading financial newspaper, has lashed out
at the prospect of a Duterte presidency, warning about the impending
evisceration of recent macro-economic gains. The Philippine peso has been hit hard
in recent weeks, portending potential capital flight in coming months. Filipino
experts such as Randy David are warning about the potential rise of
Philippine-style fascism. Investors are jittery; the media is on the edge,
while intellectuals are scrambling to understand the unexpected turn of events
in Philippine elections.
Many others, however, are adamant that Duterte’s brash statements are
mostly just an election gimmick meant to rally disgruntled voters. They see him
as the truly authentic candidate fighting against the Philippine oligarchy,
which has co-opted its democratic institutions. Both Duterte and Marcos, who
haven’t shown much interest in Manila’s arbitration case against Beijing, have
also signaled their willingness to revisit the Philippines’ current policy
towards China.
They’re both open to direct dialogue and even joint development
agreements with China. Recently, Duterte went so far
stating that if China will “build me a
train around Mindanao, build me train from Manila to Bicol . . .
build me a train [going to] Batangas, for the six years that I’ll be
president, I’ll shut up [on the sovereignty disputes].” All of these
statements, are of course, music to the ear of Beijing, which is expecting a
more friendly Manila in coming months.
The elections, of course, could take an unexpected turn in coming days,
with Duterte, who overcame the “rape joke” fallout unscathed, currently facing
accusations of not being honest about his wealth. Aquino’s favored
candidate, Interior Secretary Manuel “Mar” Roxas, a technocrat
who is now tied at second in the race, is beginning to mobilize
broader support by presenting himself as a protector
of Philippine democracy. Roxas’ running-mate, Leni Robredo,
a progressive Congressman with an impeccable track record in public service, is
presenting a stiffer
challenge to Marcos.
It is highly likely that the elections could end up as a showdown
between the strongman “iron fist” Duterte-Marcos tandem vs. the “straight path” reformist
Roxas-Robredo tandem. In a ridiculously problematic single-round,
first-past-the-post system, the candidates only need to garner the most number
of votes in the race, raising the potential of “minority leaders” in coming
months. The fate of the Philippines hangs in the balance.
Richard Javad Heydarian is a political science
professor at De La Salle University, Philippines
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