I
have lived in Jakarta for quite a while now. I guess I was always naive and
thought that Indonesia would be like Singapore; blossoming into a Western
liberal democracy. But the pixels are starting to come together and form a
totally different picture. It really looks like they have no intention of
becoming one, and what’s more; they never had any intention in the first place.
The real plan is to be a nation like Japan or Korea:
slightly xenophobic, closed and nationalistic.
This war on alcohol is just another piece in the
puzzle.However, the only problem is that Indonesians are not Japanese. They are
not ready to explode off their islands and take over the world. They are very
good people, but not the world-shakers that the Japanese are. And so they need
foreign investment and human capital to advance. So they open the door a crack
to let in some foreign investment, experts and so on, but as soon as things
seem to be going well, they immediately slam the door shut by changing the
rules of the game, moving the goalposts, etc.
I really don’t know what will become of Indonesia. It
could be a superpower, another China or Japan, but I don’t see that happening.
They are not following the Singapore free market path and they don’t have the
means to contend with the major players on their own terms. I think Indonesia
will continue to muddle forward, but it is a shame given the incredible
potential this country has.
Some think this runaway growth will continue year
after year, but now we are seeing that it was only attributable to the “low
base effect”, and things are going to slow down from now on. The banking system
lacks the strong base to propel the economy forward. The legal system does not
allow for honoring business agreements; the insurance industry is not set up to
provide protection to the people or fund sustainable growth; the education
system needs a major overhaul, but the elite here refuse to “Westernize” it.
All in all, I see a slow slide downwards until the
above problems are fixed. I really hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think we have to
guess about such things; the case studies are all around us if we look at
economic policy and results around the world.
ChrisJakarta – Readers Forum News Jakarta Post
Anyone who has tried to do business in Indonesia is familiar with the layers of bribes that need to be paid just to get port officials to do their job. This vile mix of corruption and red tape has for decades held back Indonesia’s true growth potential. Ending it can only be a good thing.
ReplyDelete