The failure of the new economic policy
During
the past 50 years, Malaysia has slipped from economic role model for developing
countries to lackluster follower, with structural inefficiencies and deep
corruption that have made the economy extremely uncompetitive.
Commercial opportunity for new entrants in many
parts of the economy is now negligible and cadres with vested interests intend
to make sure it stays that way. It is distorted, starved of innovation,
diversity, fair access to markets, market competitiveness and entrepreneurial
opportunity. Malaysia has become a net exporter of investment capital – capital
flight, according to an Asian Development Bank series paper, an indicator of
underlying structural weakness.
Since independence in 1957, the predominant
mindset of politicians, policy planners and implementers has evolved from being
stewards to technocrats to crony apparatchiks with an economy that now veers
toward central planning instead of entrepreneurial, bucking the global trend
towards economic liberalization.
Three major forms of state intervention have
been used to drag the Malaysian economy into this position today.
- Outright
government regulation and economic control
- Market
interaction of government-owned special purpose business vehicles
- An
environment of favoritism, cronyism, and corruption.
Market Regulation
Malaysia is one of the most regulated markets
within ASEAN, if not the whole Asia-Pacific region. Import permits (locally
called APs) are required for products including food items, sugar, wheat flour,
milk, pharmaceuticals, photocopiers, toner, electrical household appliances,
printers, steel products, automobiles, and luxury goods. Export licenses are also needed for a host of
agricultural products as well. Thus those individuals and companies which have
APs for particular goods exercise a virtual monopoly over the market.
One example is Padiberas Nasional Bhd (Bernas),
the sole importer of rice. Other importers face stiff legal penalties, thus
protecting the Bernas monopoly. The company is owned by UMNO connected Syed Mokhtar Syed Nor and a number of UMNO politicians. This gives an individual control over Malaysia’s rice industry and national stockpiles.
The paddy industry is in effect regulated by a private company, where farmers
are not free to grow what they want, and rice distributors are restricted in
what they can offer to the market.
In the rice industry, Malaysia is missing out
on opportunities for farmers to empower themselves through forming marketing
cooperatives like their Thai counterparts. In addition entrepreneurial
innovation is stifled because it is illegal for farmers to grow some of the
more popular varieties of aromatic rice that consumers now demand.
Many markets are restricted to semi-monopolistic
businesses that are politically connected through the issuance of import
licenses and quotas. Going back to the rice example, the industry is extremely
inefficient and declining under the control of a near monopoly, when new
production and market paradigms are urgently needed to improve Malaysia’s
competitiveness.
Other market sectors are heavily controlled. In
the mid-1990s, the Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Ministry was given the
responsibility under the Franchise Act 1998 to develop and regulate the
industry. New requirements made becoming either franchisor or franchisee
cumbersome.
The Franchise Development Program (FDP)
requires franchisors to undertake a number of steps and procedures before they
could be registered under Section 6 of the Franchise Act, a chance for
backhanders to civil servants at every step. Consequently, the combination of
bureaucracy, regulation, procedure and plain dishonesty have brought misery and
suffering to many unsuspecting franchisees. Many unhappy franchisors have
suggested to the author that some collusion exists in this process between consultants and officials.
There are many other restrictive regulations
that hinder competition. Any direct marketing company must have at least RM1.5 million capitalization, shutting out many
potential entrepreneurs. A restrictive licensing procedure for television and
radio licenses leaves the broadcast media in the hands of only a few
proprietors, all connected to the ruling political parties. Astro, the nation’s
satellite TV broadcaster has a sole monopoly, where the possession of satellite
receivers and dishes is illegal. Astro’s beneficial owner is T. Ananda
Khrishnan, a Mahathir crony and the country’s second-richest man who was
enriched through his close proximity to government, particularly in obtaining
gaming licenses.
Government ministries heavily regulate the
sectors they are responsible for to the point of eliminating any potential
global competitiveness. For example, the Ministry of Education heavily
regulates higher education to the point of what any university can teach, how
curriculum is delivered, who can be employed as academics, and the selection of
key position holders. The higher education system is producing graduates who
can follow directions, rather than leaders of industry.
There are also great mismatches between what industry requires in skills and what universities
are currently providing. This is evidenced by very high
unemployment rates of graduates within Malaysia today. There are currently more
than 160,000 unemployed graduates today according to Abdul
Wahid Omar, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office.
The restriction of entry into universities
based on race has contributed to a brain drain which is driving away valuable
talent. According to the World Bank almost a million Malaysians – 3 percent of the population, of which about
one third are professional, have left the country for good,
hampering the country’s competitiveness.
GLCs and SEDCs
Since Malaysia’s 1981 raid on the London Stock
Exchange to buy the plantation company Guthrie and place it under the control
of Permodalan Nasional Bhd, the country’s leading sovereign investment fund,
GLCs now control almost every economic sector, employing more than 5 percent of
the Malaysian workforce and representing approximately 35 percent of Bursa
Malaysia market capitalization.
Petronas, Sime Darby, UMW, Media Prima, Maybank
and CIMB are dominant in their respective sectors. Many GLCs control over 60
percent of their particular markets, thus stifling competition and investment
from private entities.
In addition to these national GLCs, state
governments through their respective State Economic Development Corporations
(SEDCs) directly enter markets to exploit entrepreneurial opportunities. This
makes it almost impossible for small firms to compete as SEDCs and GLCs have
favored access to resources, regulation to protect them, and choice selection
of land, etc, at favored rates, if not free. SEDC companies take the choice
projects and weaken the ability of private enterprise to play a role in
regional development.
GLCs and SEDC subsidiaries use their unfair
advantages to compete with local entrepreneurs, stifling competition.
One of the economic tragedies surrounding these
companies is the waste involved. Many projects are recommended and planned by
consultants without any consideration of market viability. In many cases public
funds are utilized to develop white elephant projects in which only the
contractors and consultants benefit, most of them connected to the ruling
United Malays National Organization or other components of the Barisan
Nasional.
Another danger is that aggregate economic
activity is very much dependent upon GLC spending. Today with
household debt at 88 percent, GLCs are the only potential driver of economic
growth.
Corruption and
Cronyism
Cronyism is a major factor in skewing free
market competition. Ever since the Mahathir-Anwar plan to create new Malay entrepreneurs in the 1980s by
promoting people like Halim Saad and Tajudin Ramli, crony capitalism has become
a major feature. Most politicians have
businesses which compete unfairly against entrepreneurs. No mechanism to check
these conflicts of interest currently exists. The perception is widespread that
the level of corruption is on the increase, skewing most of the tender process,
where transparency is next to nil. Toll concession agreements are considered
state secrets.
Reports to the author from petty class F
contractors supplying goods and services to government around Malaysia are
stories of payments to public office bearers. Some of these payments allegedly
are as high as 60 percent of the contract, making profit impossible. With
payments taking up to six months, many Bumiputera businesses are financially
suffering, hindering healthy competition and growth.
Failure and the
Future
Economic studies by consultants isolated from
the market have become distorted over the last decade. Very little consultation
is made with industry, consumer, or community groups, resulting mostly in
unnecessary infrastructure and programs. This type of central planning has been no more
successful than the “Gosplan” state planning mechanisms in the old Soviet Union
decades ago.
The New Economic Policy (NEP) had noble aims
which many international economists applauded in the early 1970s. However the
NEP is now widely seen as an instrument that benefits a very small cadre class.
All this has been made worse with corruption
seeping down to the micro-enterprise level. NEP implementation has hindered
healthy business growth and the very groups it was intended to benefit are
suffering. GLCs have not protected Bumiputera interests, but in fact sidelined
many potential entrepreneurs.
Today Malaysia is in the unusual position of
being a net exporter of capital. The 1MDB fiasco will further weaken any
chances of reversing investment trends. With Malaysia being a net importer of
oil, and with palm oil and rubber prices at all-time lows, public sector
spending must decrease.
There is no clear driver of economic growth
under the current structure.. Unfortunately, there are no economic reforms or
initiatives signaled in the 11th Malaysia plan. It is almost silent on economic
restructuring.
The reforms heralded by Prime Minister Najib
when he came to power in 2009 and implemented by Idris Jala, Minister in the
PM’s Department heading the Performance Management and Delivery Unit, or
Pemandu – Najib’s pet project – have not been forthcoming. According to an
independent analysis of the 12 national key economic areas that Pemandu focused
on, they averaged lower gross national income growth than non-key sectors
between 2011 and 2014 at 4.99 percent against a national average at 8.77
percent.
Malaysia is now in an innovation vacuum. With fraudulent, corrupt business practices on
the rise, and an ineffective Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC), the
gap is widening between rich and poor, which is beginning to attack the
viability of the new middle classes.
Many companies are becoming so frustrated with
not being able to secure land and licenses for expansion that they are seeking
out new locations overseas for their operations. Thailand is hoping to cash in on
this and has just recently set up a number of Special Economic Zones across the border from Malaysia
in Songkhla. Another is to be set up in Narathiwat.
Ironically the strongest warning of what may
happen in Malaysia comes from Mahathir Mohamed, when he said in his memoirs that Malaysia’s policies have produced a
culture of entitlement where “…I fear for our coming generations. I worry that the
children of those who have made it good will take the policy for granted and
never learn to be intellectually and economically self-reliant.”
Murray Hunter is a development specialist with extensive
experience in Malaysia
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