Cross-Strait Relations or China-Taiwan relations is one of the most
complex and controversial issues in today’s international relations. The two
entities, while having a shared heritage and language, have very different
aspirations for their futures. For China, Taiwan is considered a wayward
province that it needs to reunite with, by force if
necessary. Taiwan, on the other hand, increasingly considers itself
as a sovereign state capable of making sovereign decisions and participating in
international affairs.
Taiwan’s relations with the mainland can often be predicted by the
leadership or regime in power. Support for the idea of independence and its
proponent — the incumbent Democratic Progressive party — has been increasing.
On the other hand, the Kuomintang Party, which favors reunification, has been
losing the support of the Taiwanese people as evident in the electoral
successes of DPP’s Chen Sui-bian (2000-2008) and Tsai Ing-wen more recently.
Tsai Ing-wen, in particular, has been irritating China lately because of
her refusal to be
subservient to the mainland. Although claiming to favor the
status quo, it is under her administration that Taiwan’s Navy and Air Force
have been conducting trainings,
patrols and naval drills
in the Taiwan Strait, as well as completing the militarization
of Itu Aba – the sole Taiwan-occupied feature in South China Sea.
Taiwan’s relations with the United States have also been flourishing
under Tsai and US President Donald Trump.
Aside from commitment to the Taiwan Relations Act, its ascription to the
role as the global champion of democracy makes the US feel bound to help Taiwan
protect itself from invasion or forceful reunification with China’s
authoritarian leadership. Losing a democratic Taiwan will challenge the role of
the United States as a leader of the West and a major proponent of liberal
ideals. Taiwan is also strategically important because under the banner of
democracy promotion, the US is able to maintain its presence and keep an eye on
China’s aggressive actions in the region and conduct operations in the
controversial areas of Taiwan Strait, East and South China Seas.
After adopting a One China Policy during the Carter administration in
1979, the United States has dealt with Taiwan relations with strategic
ambiguity. While there are no official established diplomatic relations, the
United States counts Taiwan as an ally, vital in securing its regional
interests. The Trump administration has made policies and pronouncements that
have gone beyond those of his predecessors. Aside from unveiling a new
de facto embassy in Taipei and signing the Taiwan Travel Act, the
administration appears to continuously support Taiwan’s bid for independence by
helping it stand up to China’s aggression, through support for US
manufacturers’ arms sales
to Taiwan and having the US Navy navigating in
the Taiwan Strait. Trump officials have also been hinting
at a stronger response to China’s moves in the South China Sea, committing to
provide defense neccessities of Taiwan and opposing any effort to alter the
status quo. The US president also signed the National Defense
Authorization Act which has sections devoted to the strengthening of
U.S.-Taiwan defense cooperation through joint military exercises, trainings and
exchanges. Moreover, the United States’ disinvited China from the Rim of the
Pacific Exercises reportedly because of its militarization in the South China
Sea, hoping to send a message that the US is willing take strong diplomatic
actions regarding China’s aggression.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has made it clear
to Trump that Taiwan would be the “most important, most sensitive core issue in
China-US relations”. Taiwan is considered to be one, if not the number one, on
China’s list of its core interests. While China has been slowly negotiating
with other claimant states in the South China Sea for a Code of Conduct,
reunification with Taiwan is deemed non-negotiable. Xi himself stated that any
actions and tricks to split China will meet the ‘punishment of
history’. Hence, it is no surprise that in response to this
perceived threat to its sovereignty, China stepped up its legal and military
pressure towards Taiwan, including suspending regular diplomatic
contact due to Tsai’s refusal to endorse the 1992 consensus since
she took office. In April this year, the National People’s Congress Standing
Committee passed a revised
version of China’s surveying and mapping law intended to safeguard
its claims in the South China Sea and Taiwan. At the same time, China conducted
live-fire drills
in the Taiwan Strait, sending signals to both Taiwan and the United States.
China has moreover used its economic muscle to show Taiwan its place by buying
diplomatic recognition of smaller countries. In 2018, Dominican
Republic, El Salvador,
and Burkina Faso
cut ties with Taiwan in favor of recognizing the One China principle and
establishing ties with Beijing. In another vein, the Chinese government also demanded that
foreign airlines revise their website references to Taiwan to
reflect China’s claim on Taiwan.
Despite its efforts to resist China’s pressure with regards to
reunification, Taiwan’s economy is tightly linked with that of the mainland.
Economic ties and trade are often affected whenever there is political
disagreement or tension between Taiwan and China. Many Southeast Asian states,
Australia, Japan and others are faced with the same dilemma of looking at China
as powerful economic partner yet relying on the United States as a security
provider, particularly whenever China becomes aggressive vis. territorial
disputes.
Taiwan can be said to be in a more precarious position because of its
complicated, non-state status. Most countries that have the ability to offer
considerable defense assistance recognize and have strong economic ties with
Beijing – making it difficult for Taiwan to establish defense cooperation and
alliances. It instead attempts to woo other countries in the region through
economic cooperation via its New Southbound Policy. The
policy is dubbed modestly
successful in engaging and keep Taiwan’s presence felt in South
Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand. However, even with US support,
NSP pales in comparison to China’s grand Belt and Road Initiative.
What Taiwan needs is to establish similar relations with other countries
that it has with the United States and Singapore. The city-state, despite
pressure from China, has said it would not stop
its long-standing defense training exercises (Project Starlight) conducted with
Taiwan. Other US allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia and India should
consider going beyond criticizing China when it comes to cross-strait issues.
If the allies want to ensure US presence and guarantee that the western
notion of a rules-based order is maintained in the region, then helping Taiwan
defend its security would be in their interest. How they can package such
cooperation without suffering a backlash from China would be the major
challenge.
*Florence Principe Gamboa is a research analyst at
Asia Pacific Pathways to Progress and a graduate student of International
Studies at the University of the Philippines Diliman. This article appeared at Asia Pacific
Pathways to Progress
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