IF YOU want a reason to be
optimistic about the future of Mindanao in the southern Philippines, a region
long racked by poverty and insurgency, look at Sasa port in the city of Davao.
On a weekday morning it is bustling. Cranes stack the hold of a massive green
ship with containers holding bananas, pineapples and coconuts—all bound for
China’s hungry consumers. The Philippines is the world’s third-leading exporter
of bananas. Three-quarters of the country’s production of the fruit comes from
Mindanao, long known as the Philippines’ food basket. Between 2010 and 2014,
the value of the country’s banana exports grew by 256%—faster than anywhere
else in the world. Plantations in Mindanao played a big part.
But if you
want a reason to be pessimistic, look across the harbour to Samal, a small
island studded with beach resorts and marinas. On September 21st kidnappers
snatched four people—two Canadians, a Norwegian and a Filipina—and reportedly
took them to Sulu, an archipelago in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao
(ARMM), a patchwork of territory which Abu Sayyaf, an Islamist separatist
group, has long used as a base. Philippine officials insist the kidnapping was an
isolated case, but on October 7th an Italian businessman was abducted in
Mindanao’s Zamboanga peninsula. A day earlier troops had foiled a plot by Abu
Sayyaf to bomb Jolo, in Sulu; two days earlier bombs had toppled two
power-transmission towers in central Mindanao.
Local
officials remain sanguine, and investors do not appear to be running for the
hills—yet. But efforts to achieve peace between the central government and the
rebels of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the region’s largest
separatist group, appear to have stalled. And though both sides appear to
remain eager to reach a peace accord, delay raises the risk of more violence.
It was not
always so gloomy. On March 27th last year the central government and the MILF
signed an agreement on setting up a new autonomous region called Bangsamoro in
majority-Muslim western Mindanao, to replace ARMM. In exchange the MILF would
abolish its armed wing—thus, it was hoped, ending decades of armed struggle and
capping a peace process that began 18 years earlier. President Benigno Aquino
submitted the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), which enacts the agreement, to
Congress in September 2014.
Even before
that, the MILF had stopped fighting. International lenders such as the World
Bank had begun funding roads and development. Investment and central-government
funds poured into Mindanao, which offers numerous advantages over the rest of
the Philippines: abundant available land, comparatively low electricity rates,
a location just outside the normal reach of typhoons and proximity to the large
markets of Malaysia and Indonesia. Between 2010 and 2014 investment into
Mindanao increased more than sixfold; between 2011 and the current fiscal year
Mindanao’s allocation in the national budget more than doubled. Mr Aquino has
allocated more in his single six-year term for desperately needed upgrades of
infrastructure in Mindanao, such as roads and irrigation, than his predecessors
did in the previous 12 years. In the Bangsamoro region, investment this year is
likely to be more than five times the amount in 2013. Many people in Bangsamoro
have traded guns for ploughshares.
In January,
however, 44 policemen died in a botched raid on a rebel group in Maguindanao.
Since then, the BBL has failed to make progress in the Philippine Senate, where
it will probably continue to languish for the eight months left in Mr Aquino’s
term. Supporting it will win few votes and could cost plenty.
Whether the
BBL becomes law after that depends on whether Mr Aquino’s successor decides to
refile it. Presidential hopefuls have until October 16th to submit their
candidacy papers. A front-runner is Grace Poe, a senator, who opposes the BBL
in its current form. This does not end hope for a durable settlement; the next
president may remain open to negotiation. But the MILF risks splintering as it
loses credibility with younger fighters, some of whom seem to be losing
patience. And the virtuous cycle of peace spurring investment and development,
which leads to a deeper peace, risks turning vicious. The Economist
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