In the last three weeks
Australia's authorities have uncovered two alleged terrorist plots in
Melbourne. The plots are being rolled up but they keep coming.
And the number of people drawn to
join the barbarian killers in Syria and Iraq keeps growing. The number of
recruits in the nine months to the end of March grew by 71 per cent to an
estimated 25,000, according to a report to the UN.
They're drawn from over 100
countries, which is more than half the total number of nations on the planet,
according to the expert panel that monitors sanctions against Al Qaeda for the
UN.
Most recruits are Muslims, or at
least hail from Muslim backgrounds. So can we assume that the nations with the
biggest Muslim populations have been the richest sources of jihadi recruits to
IS?
Absolutely not. Surprising as it
may seem, some Western countries with Christian majorities account for
more IS recruits than countries with the biggest Muslim populations.
For instance, France has only
about 5 million Muslims in its population yet an estimated 1200 French
residents have travelled to the killing zone. Russia is home to around 16
million Muslims and accounts for an estimated 1500.
These countries are among the top
10 wellsprings of volunteers for the barbarian force.
Australia has about
half a million Muslims yet an estimated 150 to 200 residents have gone to join
the fighting, with at least 30 of them killed. "Proportionately, Australia
is doing no better than France," says Greg Barton, a global terrorism expert
at Monash University.
Yet now consider the two
countries with the biggest Muslim populations. First is Indonesia with over 200
million. Indonesian officials say that only about 200 Indonesians have joined
IS, though some estimates run as high as 1000 or more. Still, this is likely
fewer than the number from Russia or France.
Second is India. Although it has
predominantly a Hindu population, with only some 15 per cent of the people
identifying as Muslim, India is a big country. It's home to about 180 million
Muslims, according to the country's 2011 census.
And the number of people who've
left to join the fighting? The confirmed number is eight. "Of those, two
are dead and one has come back, so we have just five guys out of over 180
million Muslims who are fighting with ISIS," says the executive director
of the Institute of Conflict Management in Delhi, Ajai Sahni. Unofficial
estimates run higher, but not much higher, only into the tens.
"It's fascinating,"
says Sahni. Could India have some secret that other countries might learn
from?
Certainly, for IS, it's
frustrating. As the group's leader in India put it, "Why is there no storm
in your seas?"
Sahni has two explanations to
offer. "First, there's no large community support here. Instead, there's
been the explicit rejection of ISIS by very senior leaders of the Muslim
community.
"Second, India has a very
syncretist form of Islam. Muslims here are extremely resistant to
radicalisation. Despite provocations, like the Gujarat riots," in which
Hindu mobs set upon the Muslim population in 2002 in a three-day rampage that
left over 1000 people dead.
"There would not be a single
Muslim here so ghettoised that he doesn't have daily contact with non-Muslims
in interactions of profit to him, so that demonisation is very
difficult."
"I have seen in parts of
Europe that it's possible for people to live without any contact with
non-Muslims," Sahni adds. Ghettos can harbour radicalised cliques that
fester and grow, he says: "Europe is doing this very badly; France is
doing it worse than anyone else."
It's not that India's Muslims
have an easy life: "There's enormous poverty and injustice for Muslims in
India," says Sahni. "But there's enormous poverty and injustice
everywhere in India."
Hindus, Muslims, Christians and
the many smaller religious groups in India have their distinct identities yet
they are closely entwined with each other. Distinct yet inseparable.
Could it be that India's
authorities have a successful deradicalisation program? "We haven't needed
it and thank god the government doesn't get involved, because everything they
get involved in they mess up," Sahni says. "It would be very crude
and badly done if they did it. And look at the UK. They've had an active
deradicalisation program for decades yet they're one of the biggest per capita
contributors to ISIS."
Sahni argues that while close
integration works to contain Muslim disenchantment and radicalisation,
alienation has the opposite effect.
"If you say women cannot
wear the burqa or the veil, it has a dramatically mobilising effect in Muslim
communities."
The head of the Australian
Graduate School of Policing and Security at Charles Sturt University, Nick
O'Brien, says that Sahni's "point about being fully integrated is a good
one and we can't afford not to look at models in other countries that seem to
be working."
But he points out that it's not
easy for a country to replicate another's long historical experience: "You
can't flick a switch and have everyone integrated into a society – it takes
years and decades."
Monash's Greg Barton is sceptical
of Sahni's explanation: "It sounds like wishful thinking by India's
elites," he says. "There are a lot of angry Muslims in India."
Barton agrees that "it is a
bit of mystery why there are so few," and offers possible alternatives.
One is poverty. That most Indian Muslims lack internet access and social media
accounts, the prime contact points for IS recruiters. Another is that there
could simply be a time lag.
Yet Barton finds his own alternatives
less than compelling and concludes that India's success in denying volunteers
for IS "is still a mystery".
If so, it's a mystery worthy of
closer attention. Because it seems to be working.
Peter Hartcher is the international editor Sydney
Morning Herald
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