The last year before the
2016 presidential elections promises to be an interesting one.
If 2014 was the year when
the Philippines struggled to recover from the devastating impact of Typhoon
Haiyan (Yolanda), what might await Philippine politics in 2015?
1. The
state visit and apostolic journey of Pope Francis was a much needed spiritual
boost for many people in the Philippines, the largest Catholic-dominated nation
in Asia. He visited Typhoon
Haiyan victims, interacted with the youth and street children, and spoke about
“scandalous” poverty and corruption in front of the country’s top leaders. Will
politicians heed the pope’s reminder to
“reject every form of corruption that diverts resources from the poor”? The
pope spent only five days in the Philippines but he has already made a huge
impact on local politics.
2. Once
Pope Francis leaves the Philippines, it will signal the unofficial start of
campaigning for the 2016 presidential election. There will be intense bickering
among politicians in the next few months. The ruling coalition is expected to
consolidate its ranks and election machinery while aggressively marginalizing
the political opposition. But while President Benigno Aquino III continues to
be popular, he is constitutionally barred from running again and his allies are
trailing behind opposition leader and Vice President Jejomar Binay in
pre-election surveys.
3. The
dispute with China over the conflicting territorial and maritime claims in the
West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) is still the main agenda that the
Philippines will continue to raise in the Asia-Pacific region. The Philippines
has filed a case in
the United Nations Arbitral Tribunal against the ownership claims of China.
This will further inspire Filipinos to mobilize against what they see as
China’s bully behavior in the region.
4. The
next six months is crucial to implement the roadmap for peace which
the government has drafted in cooperation with the leaders of the Moro Islamic
Liberation Front. The initial challenge is to pass the Bangsamoro Basic Law in
Congress without it being diluted; and to convince legal scholars and critics
that it does not violate the 1987 Constitution. If Aquino succeeds in
establishing the Bangsamoro transition authority before the end of his term
next year, it will be a major legacy of his administration.
Another
initiative that Aquino can pursue is the resumption of the stalled peace talks
with communist rebels.
5. The
economic experience of the Philippines will be under global scrutiny as it
prepares to host the annual summit of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation
(APEC). Aquino earlier announced that the theme of this year’s APEC gathering
is “Building Inclusive Economies, Building a Better World”.
“As the
clamor for progress that leaves no one behind resounds the world over, the
Philippines has the opportunity to set a global example of inclusivity this
year,” Aquino said. But while he is
proud of the country’s strong economic fundamentals, critics will probably
remind APEC participants about the failure of the economy under Aquino to solve
poverty and deep inequality in society.
The last
time Manila hosted the APEC summit was in 1996.
The
planned economic integration of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN 2015) will be another major event, but whether or not it will figure
prominently in the country’s politics remains to be seen.
6.
Disaster recovery will be a priority for both the national and local
governments. Aquino cannot allow the slow pace of
rehabilitation in the Haiyan-affected towns to continue if he wants to get a
better assessment of his administration. His leadership will be defined by the
success or failure of his disaster recovery program in Samar and Leyte. As for
local politicians in other disaster-hit towns, they risk losing public support
if they appear ineffective in distributing relief and making aid money useful
in reviving the local economy.
These 12
months are a period of preparation for the Philippines’ big year in 2016, when
the country is due to vote in a new president. It is a year in which the
current government will seek to take bold steps to leave a positive and lasting
legacy while the opposition tries to present itself as a credible alternative.
Because of this, 2015 promises to be an exciting year for Philippine politics. By
Mong Palatino
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