During
the Group of Seven summit of leading industrial nations in The Hague on March
24, the Crimea situation was a top priority, but another topic of discussion
also dominated the meeting--China.
In the G-7's
first meeting after Russia was cast out of the Group of Eight for annexing
Crimea, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe used the occasion to bring up the concern
that tougher sanctions on Russia could lead to a strengthening of ties between
Moscow and Beijing.
“China has
maintained silence, but we must pay attention to the fact that Russia has said
that it is grateful to the people of China,” Abe told the other G-7 leaders.
“If Russia is forced into a corner and allies itself with China, it will send
shock waves throughout Asia.”
Abe’s
concern is that closer cooperation between China and Russia would increase the
former’s presence in Asia. Thus the exclusion of Russia from the Group of Eight
could ultimately lead to heightened diplomatic tensions between Japan and
China, which are already running high over the territorial row involving the Senkaku Islands
and other issues.
In his
effort to counter China, Abe has approached Russia, with whom Japan also has a
territorial dispute involving the Northern Territories
off the coast of Hokkaido.
Japan wants
to avoid the scenario of simultaneously facing threats from China and Russia
due to exacerbated tensions with both.
During the
G-7 meeting, German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed with Abe, voicing concerns
over closer China-Russia relations.
Merkel, who
was sitting next to Abe, responded to him by pointing out that China has
clearly sided with Russia rather than maintaining a neutral stance over its
annexation of Crimea.
Russian fuel
imports comprise one-third of the natural gas Germany consumes, meaning its
relations with Moscow are of vital importance. Thus the country also wants to
avoid a scenario where the China-Russia alliance unbalances the power
relationship between Berlin and Moscow.
While his
country’s two leading allies in Asia and Europe voiced their concerns over
closer China-Russia relations, U.S. President Barack Obama only gave an evasive
reply, saying that he was taking into account the China factor. One of the
reasons behind Obama’s apparent reluctance to unnecessarily provoke Beijing
could be that he is concerned over China’s growing economy and increasing
military capabilities.
The unemployment
rate in the United States has hovered around 7 percent, meaning Obama has
failed to achieve one of the main campaign pledges he made during the first
presidential election in 2008. At the time, he said he would lead the economy
back to the path of recovery.
A central
pillar of the Obama administration's basic security and economic strategy was
the pivot toward Asia. The idea was to counter China’s growing military
presence while also taking advantage of its economic growth and massive
economy, which now is the world’s second largest.
But
Washington’s response to the crisis in Crimea has cast doubts among not only
European countries but also among its Asian allies as to whether it is willing
or capable of defending its allies if a similar crisis surfaces elsewhere.
The Obama
administration’s response has only heightened concern that “the United States
may not stand up and fight a war for Japan if the Senkaku Islands are invaded,”
said officials at the foreign and defense ministries.
CHINA FACTOR
China is
apparently trying to take advantage of U.S. hesitancy to use military force,
which has become clearer as the Crimea crisis unfolds.
During a
joint news conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Beijing on
April 15, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized that China wants to show
the world that Asian countries can resolve security issues in the region on
their own.
The two
ministers said that the success of the upcoming Conference on Interaction and
Confidence Building Measures in Asia, scheduled to be held in Shanghai in May
and which Russian President Vladimir Putin is invited, is the two countries’
highest priority.
They said
that the conference will “establish a new vision of regional security in Asia,”
a statement which effectively signals that the two countries will try to build
a security framework in Asia without the United States.
China has
taken steps to counter the U.S. military presence in Asia with the construction
of a new aircraft carrier and the continued development of its missile
capabilities.
“It has been
argued within the People’s Liberation Army that its military strength will
rival that of the United States within five to 10 years, given a decline in
U.S. influence,” said a source close to the PLA’s central leadership.
Washington,
and rightly so, is strongly concerned that the fallout from the Crimea crisis
will affect the geopolitical situation in Asia.
In a U.S.
Senate committee meeting on April 3, Daniel Russel, the assistant secretary of
state and Obama's diplomatic point man for East Asia, said that there is no
doubt that China is closely observing Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the
international community's response to it.
During a
joint news conference with Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera on April 6, U.S.
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said he will call for China to show more respect
to its neighbors.
“Coercion,
intimidation is a very deadly thing that leads only to conflict,” Hagel said
during the news conference in Tokyo. “I think we are seeing some clear evidence
of a lack of respect and intimidation and coercion in Europe today in what the
Russians have done in Ukraine.”
When Hagel
visited China after Japan, Fan Changlong, vice chairman of the Communist
Party’s Central Military Commission, criticized Hagel’s remarks in Tokyo,
saying “the people of China have a grievance over the remarks (Hagel made) in
Japan.”
This month,
Obama is visiting Japan, as well as the Philippines, which also has its own
territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea.
China has
frequently deployed surveillance vessels to waters near their disputed
territories. Japan and the Philippines expect the U.S. president to take a
strong stance over Beijing’s actions.
Obama needs
to carefully walk a tightrope during his visit to Asia, where it is clear that
one of his top priorities is to strengthen economic ties with China. The U.S.
allies in Asia are closely watching what solutions the president provides.
(This
article was written by Ryota Emman and Kotaro Ono in Tokyo, Takashi Oshima in
Washington and Nozomu Hayashi in Beijing.)
THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
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