From the flurry of activities of
Sun Guoxiang, Special Envoy for Asian Affairs and the Chinese Ambassador at
Yangon, it looks that Chinese are in a desperate hurry to solve the question of
the ethnic minorities and their armed organisations operating in the Kachin and
the Shan areas on the Chinese border.
It is not that the
China that has armed, encouraged and supported the ethnic armed
organisations since Myanmar’s independence have suddenly realized that peace is
essential for Myanmar. Their strategy had all along been to keep the ‘pot
boiling’ to have leverage over Myanmar.
What has changed
the strategic course of China is the implementation of the Belt and Road
initiative where 6 of the 24 projects under the Belt Road are due to be
initiated in 2019 for which the cooperation of Myanmar Government is
essential. These include the 1700 Km road from Yunnan to Mandalay and
then on to Yangon and their flagship project the Kyaukphyu Port and SEZ
project, upgradation of three major roads in Kachin and Shan areas besides
others.
For running these
projects, the Chinese would need power too and besides starting smaller hydro
power projects in the Kachin area, it looks that they are keen to revive the
Myitsone project in Kachin area, stopped earlier and may succeed before
the end of the year!
The Chinese have
correctly judged that Myanmar has no-where to go and will be totally dependent
on her in the international fora and even from threats of sanctions of some
Western countries. The time is ripe therefore for China to “strike” and
it is not going to let go this golden opportunity.
The Western
Countries and the International agencies are equally responsible for
throwing Myanmar into the lap of China. See for example the
statement of the UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar last week
during her tour of south east Asian countries. She said that the Myanmar
Government had failed to carry out democratic reforms halfway through its
term. She added that ‘democratic freedoms are ever fragile’. She
had certainly gone beyond her brief in not restricting herself to violation of
human rights alone. The Myanmar Government rightly announced that
it will not cooperate with her as she lacked objectivity and had violated the
code of conduct.
The unilateral
cease-fire for four months declared by the Tatmadaw on 21st December
2018 against the Northern Alliance minus the Arakan Army was certainly due to
pressure from the Chinese.
The Chinese
Ambassador visited the Kachin area on December 28 and 29 and warned them not to
make friendships with Western Diplomats. He asked them not to oppose the
Chinese projects including the controversial Myitsone Hydro Power
Project. This meeting came soon after the visit of diplomats of UK and
USA to the Kachin region the previous week.
The Kachin
political leadership invited the Chinese ambassador to open a ‘liaison’ office
in Myitkyina, the official headquarters of Kachin State!
Besides the 3.6
Billion Myitsone project which is under suspension, the Chinese have begun
construction of five large dams in the Irrawady basin and a special
economic zone in Myitkyina. In a 2017 poll, it was seen that 85 percent
of people in Myanmar were opposed to the construction of the Myitsone dam , but
yet the Chinese would surely find a way to resume the project.
In the second week
of January, the Chinese Embassy in Yangon said in a statement that the “local
people of Kachin State do not oppose the Myitsone Hydro power Project. It
is that some individuals and social organisations from outside that oppose the
project.” Most of the political parties and the social organisations
opposed this statement. The Chairman of the Kachin Democratic Party
said that “Our party cannot accept the dam. The Kachin people do not
agree with the project ad our parties cannot allow it.” Yet the Chinese
who have no environmental considerations or of the people’s views would
still press ahead with the dam!
On the 11th
of January 2019 the Chinese Envoy Sun Guoxiang visited the KIO at their
headquarters in Laiza to meet the leaders of the Northern Alliance.
Imagine that in sovereign country like Myanmar, hundreds of KIA soldiers
welcomed Sun with flags of both China and that of KIO along the streets.
The Chinese Representative asked the KIO to show tolerance and remain
open for peace talks. The KIO Chairman N’Ban Hla was present in the
meeting.
A delegation from
China led by Sun Guoxiang visited Yangon on 25th January 2019 to
meet the Peace Commission Chairman Dr. Myo Win and discuss about the
peace process, Myanmar’s stability and regional development.
Earlier the Chief
of Myanmar Army Gen. Min Aung Hlaing received Sun at Nay Pyi Taw. Both
discussed on China’s assistance and cooperation in Myanmar’s Peace
process. It is said that in the meeting Sun strongly criticized the
attacks of Arakan Army on the border posts in Rakhine State earlier which
triggered a general offensive by the Army in the Rakhine State.
Since it occurred on the Indian border, the Chinese have no sympathy for
the Arakan Army whose operations do not affect the Chinese border!
An informal meeting
had also taken place at Kunming between a Myanmar Government delegation led by
Khin Maung Dy. Minister to State Counsellor’s Office and a KIA delegation led
by Gen. Guan Maw.
A conflict that is
almost seven decades old cannot be solved by a few meetings. Both sides-
the Army and the Ethnic Armed Insurgents do not seem to feel the urgency to
look for peace and mutual accommodation. It is more than a month
since the ceasefire was announced and only now are the sides nominating the
teams to negotiate for talks. The negotiating team for the Tatmadaw is
being led by Lt. Gen. Yar Paye.
The Army has also
not helped in beginning the talks in a positive way. Even before the
talks are to begin, it warned the Armed organisations not to expand the
respective operational areas and claimed that the EAOs are destabilizing the
region by fighting with each other and with the Tatmadaw troops and has given a
dead line.
Separately the Army
announced that the cease fire is not being respected by the Armed Insurgents
and claimed that they (EAOs) had operated 168 times outside their jurisdiction,
extorting money from civilians ten times, recruiting cadres twenty times, and
ambushing the Army ten times besides laying mines in two instances. This
is not a good beginning for any chance of success in the ensuing talks.
Sensing that the
Ethnic reconciliation may get stuck, the NLD is said to be changing its
priorities. Media reports indicate that they may formally propose
constitutional amendments to the 2008 Constitution. The NLD had always
maintained that the Constitution is undemocratic, but any amendment cannot be
made without the consent of the Army who hold 25 percent of the seats in the
Parliament.
There are no
signs that the Army would relent!
By S.
Chandrasekharan
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