Bringing India into Australia's nuclear family

When Tony Abbott arrived in India's booming financial megalopolis of Mumbai on Thursday, his two-day visit coincided with two minor milestones.

There is his own one-year anniversary that formally ticks over on Sunday and the first 100 days of India's new government, led by the conservative-nationalist prime minister, Narendra Modi.

Both markers have brought a welter of commentary as leaders are assessed against that cruellest of benchmarks, the expectations they themselves created. And what a contrast they reveal.

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On Wednesday, an opinion poll showed Modi is doing somewhat better early on than his Australian counterpart. The 14-city survey by Network 18 and Today's Chanakya found people surveyed were  onside with government plans to reshape and modernise India's vast yet stultifyingly bureaucratic economy.

In fact,a third of voters said they wanted the new government to be bolder still and nearly two thirds approved of the new government's performance.

Half of those surveyed thought the government would improve its position if an election were held now, whereas just one in five disapproved.

The Economic Times said the poll "showed Modi has been successful in building a direct rapport with the people".

The contrast in the respective political fortunes of Abbott and Modi, is starkest in the goodwill being extended by Indian voters to the Modi program as against the trust problem for the coalition in Australia.

Yes, the two milestones are different. Governments with just three months on the clock have hardly had time to get things wrong and usually there is a post-election honeymoon. So Modi could yet go backwards in his first year.

But even by the 100-day mark, Abbott was behind the freshly ousted opposition according to both the Fairfax-Nielsen and Newspoll surveys. Mostly it was issues of management – or a lack of it.

First there was the entitlements furore for MPs that dominated the early weeks, with no decisive management by the new prime minister. There was also the Indonesian spying allegations – not Abbott's fault but his to manage;  the vetoed GrainCorp takeover that was politically tricky; a curious and self-inflicted education funding wobble;  and both Qantas and Holden faced crises that engulfed the government for a time. Since then, the problems have been mostly  associated with the budget.

Of necessity, Modi's reform agenda is ambitious, yet his popularity remains high. He has been helped in this regard by the timidity of previous governments, meaning there are some obvious levers to pull and a pent up mood for change in the electorate.

Dismantling centrally planned agricultural policy directing what food is grown, and how it is priced and distributed, is an example of change that is long overdue. Indian voters have so far embraced the promise of greater economic efficiency and lower prices. Ditto for transport reform.

Modi's recent boast that India is open for foreign business having replaced red tape with red carpet seemed almost Abbott-esque.

Energy policy is another great challenge, which brings us back to Abbott's visit. The tangible - yet officially unconfirmed - mission here is commercial - to sign an inter-country safe-guards agreement removing the last impediments to Australian uranium sales to India. Insiders say it could also to facilitate direct Indian investment in what might otherwise be marginal uranium mines in Australia.

The trade is something John Howard wanted and Julia Gillard got moving on decisively in 2012. And it is a circle the pro-nuclear Abbott is more than happy to square notwithstanding India's refusal to sign the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

For Abbott and Modi, whose popularity is also tied up in nationalism, the uranium agreement fits a broader narrative. Modi just returned from a five-day visit to Japan for talks with Abbott's close ally, Shinzo Abe.

Just as Abe is leading a revival in national morale in Japan allied to a sweeping reform program, Modi is asserting a new Indian pride based on modernisation. Both want the strength and national confidence to stare down China. Stitching up the uranium deal with Australia ticks all of those boxes being both economic and strategic.

After building his own close ties with Abe, Abbott is building another alliance with Modi. It is consistent with his refrain that he wants to strengthen all regional friendships. Beijing is watching this process closely.

While Washington strenuously denies its so-called Asia-Pacific "pivot" is part of a China containment strategy, Abbott's foreign policy activism suggests he has no compunction in overtly encouraging economic development, self-reliance, free trade, and muscular independence in the countries with whom Australia feels most comfortable.

When he nominated Japan as Australia's best friend in Asia, it was on the basis of its westernised liberal-democratic values – the contradistinction with China was left unsaid.

One imagines the same logic is underpinning the new bilateral relationship Abbott wants to forge with India. And that's the other milestone in this Indian foray. Abbott's state visit to New Delhi on Friday will be Modi's first as host.

Mark Kenny is Fairfax Media's chief political correspondent.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/bringing-india-into-australias-nuclear-family-20140904-10c655.html#ixzz3COAJ2fZs