Barack Obama makes an unprecedented visit to a former
pariah
HE WILL be on the ground for less
than a day. Still, when Barack Obama arrives in Myanmar on November 19th, one
leg of a three-country South-East Asian tour, it will be quite a moment: the
first ever visit to the country by a sitting American president, which sets the
seal on one of the fastest rehabilitations of a former American foe.
Not that long ago America was
branding Myanmar an “outpost of tyranny”, and an “unusual and extraordinary
threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States”. But
that was before Aung San Suu Kyi was released from years of house arrest in
late 2010 and, the following year, the new president, Thein Sein, promised to
take his country down the path of opening and reform. These days, it is all
friendliness between the two sides. Yet the fact that only a couple of months ago
Mr Thein Sein’s name had hastily to be removed from a long-standing visa
blacklist in order to meet his new friends in the Obama administration in New
York shows how swiftly events have moved.
Too swift, for some. Mr Obama says
he is going to Myanmar in order to reward the regime for the democratic changes
of the past two years, and to encourage further reform. Some activists and
Burmese exiles are critical of his rush. They acknowledge Myanmar’s progress to
date, but argue that it is premature for an American president to confer the
honour of a visit on a regime that still holds political prisoners and prosecutes
nasty little wars against its own people, such as the ethnic Kachin.
Then there is the more recent
outbreak of sectarian violence in Rakhine state in the country’s west, the
brunt of which is borne by the Muslim Rohingya minority. Since fighting erupted
in June the conflict has cost hundreds of lives and left over 130,000 homeless.
The inability—or unwillingness—of the government to stem the attacks on the
Rohingya, a stateless people though most have lived in the country for
generations, has raised doubts as to whether the regime is really changing its
spots with respect to human rights and the ethnic divisions within the country.
Similar concerns animate complaints
about another leg of Mr Obama’s brief tour, to Cambodia. He will be in Phnom
Penh on November 19th and 20th to attend the annual East Asia Summit. But many,
including both Republican and Democratic congressmen, question the wisdom of
appearing too close to the country’s strongman, Hun Sen, who has ruled with an
iron fist for almost three decades (see Banyan). Only in Thailand, which he also visits,
will Mr Obama court less controversy.
Trumping the concerns, however, is
America’s “pivot” towards Asia and the geopolitical contest for friends and
influence in the face of a rising China. Myanmar, which shares a
2,000-kilometre (1,250-mile) border with China, is viewed as a crucial prize in
this contest. Mr Obama hotfooting it to Myanmar throws out an unequivocal
message of American intent.
The visit will also be used to
justify the more conciliatory foreign policy that he promised in his
inauguration speech in January 2009, following his bellicose predecessor,
George W. Bush. Then, Mr Obama offered to extend a hand to pariah regimes that
were “willing to unclench” their fists. The policy yielded little in North
Korea and Iran, but at least Mr Obama has a sweaty palm to clasp in Myanmar.
Before, America had focused on
isolating the military regime with comprehensive economic sanctions, introduced
after the repression of the democracy movement in the early 1990s and the house
arrest of its leader, Miss Suu Kyi. The Obama administration promised to uphold
the sanctions but also to talk directly to the Burmese leadership, with the
blessing of Miss Suu Kyi.
This “pragmatic engagement” has
undoubtedly yielded results. American visits and offers of help have been
matched by concessions by the regime: prisoner releases (another occurred just
before Mr Obama’s arrival), free and fair by-elections, the relaxation of media
censorship. The pace of change quickened after the visit of the secretary of
state, Hillary Clinton, late last year.
Importantly for America, Mr Thein Sein
has renounced military links with North Korea.
It helped that Myanmar’s ruling
generals really wanted to engage. Their pariah status in the West, and a
decrepit economy, were immense humiliations when rubbing shoulders with fellow
South-East Asians. They also wanted to end their growing reliance on China. As
Americans realised that sanctions had simply driven Myanmar into China’s arms,
so the generals increasingly resented the embrace. Chinese businesses were
coming to dominate, especially in Myanmar’s north, which the Chinese were
tearing up to make way for unpopular development projects. And so both America
and Myanmar had good reasons to help each other.
As the United States seeks to deepen
ties in the neighbourhood, China, for its part, has been strangely quiet about
Myanmar’s reorientation towards the West. Perhaps that is because the country
is important to China above all for future transhipments of gas, the plans for
which are still going ahead, with a pipeline under construction. As for Miss
Suu Kyi, many Chinese hardly know about her. But as she rises to prominence
that will change. Her anglophile tendencies, and a late husband who cared
passionately about preserving Tibetan culture, will do nothing to allay growing
Chinese suspicions of her.
Meanwhile, foreign-policy experts in
China refuse to be taken in by all the American rhetoric about democracy and
human rights. America, complains Zhu Feng, an international-relations
specialist at Peking University, always had a strategic concern with China in
the region, assuming that it wants to use “Myanmar as a springboard to the
Indian Ocean”. (That is a not unreasonable assumption.)
And so the Obama visit is likely
only to deepen the Chinese feeling of creeping encirclement. Chinese experts
also point to last month’s extraordinary announcement that next year the
Burmese army will, as observers, probably attend America’s annual regional
military exercises with its friends, known as Cobra Gold. This year’s event, in
Thailand, included contingents from South Korea, Indonesia, Japan and
Singapore. If the Burmese join this lot, then expect the more conspiratorial
readings of the “pivot” to get a really good airing in the Chinese capital.
The Economist
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