Jakarta/Brussels, 26 September 2012:
Demographic and social change, easing of authoritarian controls, a growing
civil society and economic uncertainty are shaking the communal foundations of
Malaysian politics and making the outcome of its coming election unusually
unpredictable.
Malaysia's Coming Election: Beyond Communalism?, the
new report from the International Crisis Group, examines the political
landscape ahead of the thirteenth general election that will likely be called
later this year or early next. More than ever before, there is a chance -
though a very small one - that the world's longest-serving elected political
coalition, the National Front (Barisan Nasional), could face defeat at the
polls, despite the way the political deck is stacked against the opposition.
"Both sides are using images of the Arab Spring, with
Barisan warning of chaos if it is not returned to power and the opposition
predicting popular unrest unless political change comes faster", says
Sidney Jones, Senior Adviser to the Crisis Group Asia Program. "While
these warnings are almost certainly overdrawn, there is no doubt that Malaysia
is changing, and no one is sure what direction it will take".
Barisan has based its longevity on giving preferential status to
the country's majority Malays in exchange for guarantees to the Chinese and
Indian minorities of security and economic growth. The opposition, campaigning
on issues that transcend ethnicity, such as transparency, social justice and
electoral reform, is finding support in the Malay middle class in a way that
has forced Barisan to address many of the same issues. Prime Minister Najib,
Barisan's leader who remains personally popular, has been presiding over a slow
process of political liberalisation, amending, revoking or replacing some of
the laws that for decades placed tight curbs on civil liberties. Conservatives
in his own party, led by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed, warn that t
hese reforms will lead to anarchy; opposition leaders call them too little, too
late.
The outcome of the election could hinge on several factors:
developments in the two eastern states of Sabah and Sarawak, on Borneo, that
control a quarter of the seats in parliament; the ability of the opposition to
maintain a united front; the impact of a series of corruption scandals linked
to senior government officials; the impact of Barisan's ability to dole out
economic favours to strategic constituencies; and the state of the economy at
the time elections are finally called.
"With a loosening of Mahathir-era controls, political space
will widen not just for the champions of civil rights and racial equality, but
also for hardline civil society, whether ultranationalist or Islamist",
says Jim Della-Giacoma, Crisis Group's South East Asia Project
Director."The question Malaysians need to answer on election day is which
of the two coalitions will be better able to handle those pressures while
moving the country toward greater openness".
Read the full report at http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/south-east-asia/malaysia/235-malaysias-coming-election-beyond-communalism.pdf?utm_source=malaysiareport&utm_medium=3&utm_campaign=mremail
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