JUST as South-East Asian countries
were heaving a sigh of relief that China and the Philippines appeared to be
drawing back from confrontation in the South China Sea, new tension has arisen
between China and Vietnam in the same stretch of ocean. In recent days the two
countries stepped up their sparring over archipelagoes and oil rights nearby,
even dropping hints of military resolve to back their rival claims. Few predict
imminent conflict, but a revival of old animosities between China and Vietnam
could yet open huge rifts within the region.
The easing of weeks-long tensions
between China and the Philippines last month appeared to signal that both
countries saw too much to lose in continuing their high-profile spat over
ownership of the Scarborough Shoal (see map). For all that it enjoys American
support, the Philippines knew it would probably be badly bruised in any
military showdown. China, despite its fulminations, appeared to worry that a
show of force risked damaging its image and causing South-East Asian countries
to turn even more to America for security. The Philippines said it withdrew its
two government ships from the shoal on June 15th, citing bad weather. Chinese
boats reportedly followed suit, though it is not clear how completely.
But the calm was brief. On June 21st
Vietnam’s parliament passed a maritime law that reasserted the country’s claims
to the Spratly and Paracel Islands. China called this a “serious violation” of
its sovereignty. It responded by declaring that a county-level government which
supposedly governs the two archipelagoes and much of the rest of the South
China Sea from one of the Paracel Islands, had been upgraded to the
administrative level of a prefecture. Chinese media described this notional
jurisdiction, Sansha, as by far the biggest prefecture in the country (though
its population of a few hundred people is heavily outnumbered by gulls and its
ill-defined territory is mostly water). Some Chinese internet users speculated
excitedly about who might be appointed mayor, but reports on some websites that
a 45-year-old hydrologist had got the job were later dismissed as a spoof.
Tensions rose further with an
announcement late last month by CNOOC, a Chinese state-owned oil company, that
it was opening nine blocks in what China calls the South Sea to international
bids for oil and gas exploration. These reach to within 37 nautical miles
(68km) of Vietnam’s coast, according to PetroVietnam, a Vietnamese state-owned
oil firm. Carlyle Thayer of the University of New South Wales says CNOOC’s move
was probably a “political stunt” in response to Vietnam’s new law, about which
China had long been expressing concerns. Mr Thayer says that, given the disputes,
China’s offer will get a cool reception from oil firms.
Worryingly, however, both countries
have been sending stronger signals that they might defend their claims with
force. China’s defence ministry said on June 28th that it had launched “combat-ready”
patrols in the South China Sea. Earlier Vietnam stated that it was conducting
regular air patrols over the Spratlys. Some of this may be dressing up of
routine activity. But China fought more recently with Vietnam than with any
other country. Their last big skirmish, a naval encounter in the Spratlys in
1988, left over 70 Vietnamese dead. Relations have improved greatly since, but
mutual wariness persists. Vietnam, then a Soviet ally, has to China’s chagrin
recently forged military links with America.
Neither side wants this to escalate.
Chinese diplomats have been trying to project a more accommodating image since
a bout of chest-thumping over the South China Sea in 2009 and 2010 which
heightened anxieties in the region and damaged China’s efforts to project its
rise as peaceful. In mid-July South-East Asian foreign ministers, as well as
America’s secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, and China’s foreign minister,
Yang Jiechi, will discuss regional security in the Cambodian capital, Phnom
Penh. China does not want the kind of confrontation this time around that it
endured at a similar gathering two years ago, when Mrs Clinton asserted that
the sea was America’s national interest, rallying China’s regional rivals over
the issue.
Popular nationalism is a wild card.
On July 1st hundreds of people joined rare protests in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh
City against China’s assertion of claims to the Spratlys and Paracels. Vietnam,
like China, is normally intolerant of public demonstrations, but police did
little to intervene.
In China Global Times, a
newspaper that champions nationalist causes, used an editorial on July 4th to
lash out against both Vietnam and the Philippines (which had transgressed again
by saying on July 2nd that it might ask America to deploy spy planes in
disputed areas). The newspaper said China should respond cautiously, but that
both countries deserved punishment. It also warned that if they went to
“extremes in their provocations”, this might involve military strikes.
Chinese leaders do not want a burst
of nationalist sentiment that might backfire should they fail to satisfy
popular demands. But uncertainty abounds as China prepares for big changes in
its civilian and military leadership in the autumn. Contenders for power do not
want to appear weak. As Global Times growled, “If these island disputes
had happened in imperial times, they would have been handled in a much easier
way. The Economist
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