INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP - NEW BRIEFING
Beijing/Brussels, 17 February 2010: While China resists tougher UN Security Council sanctions on Iran, it is likely to ultimately come on board but will seek to delay and weaken the West’s desired measures.
The Iran Nuclear Issue: The View from Beijing,* the latest International Crisis Group briefing, examines China’s perspective on the nuclear impasse, including why it is so hesitant to support further sanctions and insists that more diplomacy is the key to a peaceful solution. However, if Beijing finds itself facing unanimous support for new sanctions from other Security Council members, it can be expected to avoid a veto and focus instead on ensuring that punitive measures will not harm its interests.
“China lacks the West’s sense of fundamental urgency about the Iran nuclear issue”, explains Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, Crisis Group’s China Adviser and North East Asia Project Director. “It is yet to be convinced that Tehran is on the cusp of achieving the capabilities to highly enrich and weaponise its uranium, or that there is an imminent threat of military confrontation in the Middle East”.
China is most likely to pursue a delay-and-weaken strategy with regard to the sanctions the West says are needed to bring Iran into serious negotiations on its controversial nuclear program. While China has stated that it supports a “nuclear-free” Middle East, it does not want to sacrifice its deepening economic ties with Tehran, especially in oil. But Beijing’s approach also reflects its consistent historical opposition to sanctions, doubt about their efficacy and a tactical hedge. By using delaying tactics and giving each side part of what its wants, China maximises benefits from both.
In addition to its need for energy, China’s relationship with Tehran is shaped by broader foreign and domestic policy calculations. Strong bilateral ties strengthen Beijing’s position in the Middle East and Central Asia, China’s “Grand Periphery” which has become a priority focus of its geo-strategy. They also help balance Washington’s influence in the region. China and Iran share a sense of suspicion towards the West – reinforced by common experience of being the target of sanctions and a similar perception of U.S. interference in their internal politics. In China’s eyes, Iran’s regional power will expand in future, meaning that good relations could serve its interests for years to come.
However, “Beijing still values its relations with Washington more than its ties to Tehran”, says Robert Templer, Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director. “If China finds itself isolated on the Security Council, it will not side with Iran at the expense of that relationship but will instead negotiate hard to ensure that sanctions are as weak as possible”.
A most interesting article. I concur with the conclusions that China is not going to be a big supporter of sanctions. It never has been for any of the periods when sanctions have been proposed as a means of changing a nations politics. Not in the Middle East, Africa or even Korea. However, it will use diplomacy and lever it's own position to gain maximum economic and political leverage. The world is entering a new phase with the only superpower in decline and China very much on the rise as it has been since the mid 1980's.
ReplyDeleteAs an aside it is interesting that the US in particular with support from the UK and allies, is so upset about Iran or North Korea striving to be nuclear military powers. It doesn't express the same degrees of concern with those countries that are already nuclear armed, and that includes Israel as well as Pakistan and India, two countries that still have armies facing each other after several wars.
While acknowledging that there is a difference between private and public (political) morality, as clearly evinced by Gareth Evans some years ago, one has to ask if there isn't some high degree of hypocrisy involved. Perhaps if the US and other nuclear powers were to renounce this form of armament and work towards complete nuclear disarmament with international monitoring there would be some higher moral ground that Iran could accept. But until that happens why shouldn't the Iranians say,”We want to join your club and you have no right to dictate that we can't have what you already have!”. If the argument is that Iran poses a threat to Israel, I note that the USA supports Israel with very little wavering when that country occupies the territory of neighbours, annexes Palestinian land and punishes whole communities for the 'crimes' of the few. Until there is some move towards a just peace in the Middle East we will continue to face Islamic countries supporting terrorism (a form of resistance movement?) and wanting to be armed to the same degree as Israel.
I do so enjoy your Asia news!