Thursday, June 12, 2014

Investors Will Leave INDONESIA If Prabowo Wins: Deutsche Bank

A recent survey by Deutsche Bank shows that the investors’ investment decisions will be significantly affected by the change in government.

The survey reveals that 74 percent of investors will invest if non-active Jakarta governor Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and his running mate Jusuf Kalla win the election, while only 6 percent would sell their shares.

In contrast, the survey says that should the Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa pair win 56 percent of investors would offload their shares while only 13 percent would buy more shares.

The survey, which was conducted in May and June 2014, involved 70 investors.

"We note the approach of the Jokowi-Kalla pair’s ‘non-transactional’ coalition, compared to Prabowo-Hatta’s pragmatic compromise, is the most important distinguishing factor in the reform," Deutsche Bank said in a release made available to The Jakarta Post on Thursday.

In addition, the bank’s R.O.C.K survey — the largest independent opinion poll comprising 3,300 respondents in 27 cities across the country — indicated support for the Jokowi-Kalla ticket was 50 percent while that for Prabowo and Hatta it was 41 percent.

The former Surakarta mayor’s team still led in 19 out of 27 cities it surveyed.

"Our base case view still calls for Jokowi-Kalla to win. Still, we note the fluidity of outcome and the scheduled five presidential debates may affect the undecided voters," it said.

The bank aims to conduct two more surveys prior to the presidential election, which is slated for July 9.

Moreover, it said that independent political analysts suggested that the Jokowi-Kalla ticket would complement each other and had a stronger performance than the Prabowo-Hatta ticket during the first televised presidential candidate debate.

"Some observers have said that the first and the last debates would perhaps be the most influential and judging from media commentary, the first debate seems to have enhanced the Jokowi-Kalla ticket’s lead," it continued. (nfo)

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