Monday, April 27, 2015

Vietnam in the American psyche



Anniversaries have their special appeal. The first anniversary of the sinking of the Sewol on April 16 evoked emotions of outrage and sadness. Anniversaries of war and peace, victories and defeats, are also deeply enshrined in the psyche of nations and individuals. We think of those whom we knew who died, of false hopes and severe disappointments enveloped in tragedies that you had to have been there to feel in their enormity.

It's with feelings such as those that I'm going to Saigon for a week of observances marking the 40th anniversary of what the victors call Giai Phong, meaning liberation. That's a word that I find hard to accept, however, after having spent a number of years on the losing side ― that is, covering the war from the American and South Vietnamese perspective.


All I can remember is the futility of a cruel war waged in distant jungle fire bases, in cities and towns, in the delta of the Mekong river, those memories mingle with the utter sadness of millions of South Vietnamese caught in the crossfire and then disbelieving when the Americans suddenly left them to face the North Vietnamese alone. In the years since then about 2 million Vietnamese have settled in the U.S., having gotten as refugees on boats or through the Orderly Departure Program that the Americans established with the Vietnamese victors.

Memories of the end of the Vietnamese War fester in the American consciousness as if the final defeat of the U.S.-backed Saigon regime was one of the greatest calamities in American history. Maybe it was, but then how come we go again and again to that humiliation but hardly remember the Korean War? Groups of veterans do come to Seoul now and then, but you don't see their stories and their memories filling acres of space in the foreign media as do all those anniversary stories from Vietnam.

Yes, as noted so often, but it's difficult to understand why the Korean War is so little remembered in the U.S. even though it didn't exactly end in defeat. In fact, considering how the southern ''half" of the Korean Peninsula has come to thrive as an economic powerhouse, we wouldn't be too wrong in saying the Korean War ended more favorably than seemed possible when the truce was signed in Panmunjom.

The ending in Korea is in stark contrast to the denouement in Vietnam which really was a total defeat, a sickening humiliation, a reminder of the waste of war. OK, U.S. forces did not surrender. The last of the combat units had withdrawn in 1973 under terms of the Paris peace that foolishly opened the doors wide open for the North Vietnamese to pour southward, finally entering Saigon after the abject defeat of the South Vietnamese. Lest anyone forget, however, please remember some South Vietnamese, outgunned and outmanned by the onrushing foe, fought valiantly on the approaches to Saigon.

Nowadays, though, you wonder if Vietnam, united and open to visitors from the U.S. and South Korea, America's great ally in the war, would have been any better off if the U.S. had gone on fighting. No one doubts that the regime was thoroughly corrupt, that much of the oil and other aid was stolen by military and political leaders, that the Americans never understood what to do to win. Vietnam's current leaders may be superficially communist but are also corrupt. We hear stories of human rights violations, of the arrests of journalists, intellectuals and religious figures, but we may be pretty sure the old order, had it prevailed in the South, would have been equally harsh while the North remained a persistent threat.

That argument, though, could never apply to South Korea. Some leftist intellectuals, dominating American campuses, claim if the communists had won, if Kim Il-sung's invasion of the south had succeeded, if the Americans had never intervened, Korea would have been not only united but prospered. Historical questions of ''what if" can never be answered, but I seriously doubt if a communist dictatorship could have done anything for Korea's prosperity. The record of North Korea over the seven decades since the division of the peninsula in 1945 does not support that ridiculous argument.

Instead, we have to wonder why we make so much out of Vietnam while forgetting or sublimating memories of the Korean War, which may have cost more lives. One reason may be that the Korean War was sort of a follow-up to World War II and the victory of the Chinese Communists whereas the Vietnam War was a turning point in U.S. history. Ever since, Americans have been questioning the wisdom of going to war, whether in Eastern Europe, or the Middle East, or again in Asia. The U.S. actually hasn't fought a war to a really successful conclusion since Korea. Will it do so again?

Columnist Donald Kirk, www.donaldkirk.com, covered much of the war in Vietnam and Cambodia and has been reporting off and on from Korea and elsewhere in Asia since that period

 

Nepal’s devastating earthquake, a disaster waiting to happen



This small and impoverished country of 28 million people lies in a prime earthquake zone – international experts were in Kathmandu just over a week ago predicting an imminent disaster. And it happened in a city with a population of over one million that is crammed with vulnerable old structures, many new buildings that have been inadequately designed and badly constructed, and masses of shantytown slums.

Sadly, with variations, this is story of imminent catastrophe that applies across South Asia. Hundreds of potential disasters have been created by the pressure of growing populations and expanding economies, plus a disregard for natural and man-made environmental dangers and the failings of weak and corrupt governments that fail to tackle problems that everyone knows about.

In Nepal, the story has been building up for decades, confounding international aid agencies and others who have tried to tackle social, environmental and other challenges.

When I first visited Nepal 30 years ago, I wrote (in The Financial Times) that “deep-rooted corruption siphons off a large proportion of international aid and cripples the country’s economic growth and public administration.” Members of the now-ousted royal family were heading the plunder, and one aid worker told me the leakages were so dire that his country would only provide equipment, not money.

Since then Nepal, which is a buffer state between India and China, has been wracked by relentless political instability, a Maoist uprising and civil war. Governments have not even been able to begin to tackle macro economic development, let alone the intractable problems that made the earthquake and its after-shocks so serious.

The good news is the way that international help was quickly mobilized over the weekend. India led the way within hours of the quake, flying in supplies and support teams in an operation personally led by Narendra Modi, the prime minister who showed, perhaps for the first time since he was elected a year ago, his ability to swing a cumbersome government machine into immediate action.

The earthquake, measuring 7.8 on the Richter scale, had been forecast to happen because it is 80 years since the last such disaster which demolished large areas of Kathmandu and killed over 17,000 people.

It is the result of what is known as the Indian tectonic plate moving northwards at the rate of 5cm a year into central Asia and the Eurasian plate. Originally this threw up the Himalayan mountain range and the fault line has triggered a series of quakes, most recently in Kashmir in 2005 when over 70,000 people were killed in Pakistan and neighbouring countries.

Just a week ago, 50 earthquake scientists from around the world met in Kathmandu to discuss how the area would cope with such  a disaster. “Physically and geologically what happened is exactly what we thought would happen,” seismologist James Jackson, head of the earth sciences department at the Cambridge University, told the Daily Mail. “I was walking through that very area where that earthquake was and I thought at the time that the area was heading for trouble,’ said Jackson, lead scientist for Earthquakes Without Frontiers, a group that tries to help Asian cities prepare for disasters.

There is of course extreme grief in Nepal, and across the world, for the loss of those who have died, and concern for those who have been injured or have not yet been found. Government ministers join in the expressions of sorrow and pledges to provide aid, but it often seems that life in this region is not valued highly. Little is done once the crisis has past, beyond slowly rebuilding people’s lives, their homes and places of work.

Public services are allowed to decay, and there is scant concern for public safety. Two years ago, there were some 6,000 deaths when devastating floods hit the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand adjacent to Nepal.

The floods were caused by torrential rain but they were exacerbated by the reckless construction of buildings, dams and roads in a fragile environment. Many settlements had been built next to the rivers in blatant violation of corruptly administered environmental laws – but little or nothing has been done in the past two years to improve the situation.

The Nepalese are sturdy strong people and they will rebuild their lives, haphazardly. But they have little opportunity to plan further than their immediate needs, and the sort of action taken by, for example, Japan to construct buildings that can withstand earthquakes is beyond what they can even dream about.

That then is the challenge for international aid agencies, and for Narendra Modi at the head of Nepal’s largest neighbor. From Afghanistan across to Bhutan and Bangladesh and down into India, a new approach is needed to handling natural disasters and, in particular, trying to ensure that buildings can withstand earthquakes. That is a huge challenge for governments,  but in India it is just the sort of thing that Modi was elected to achieve, by making government work.

John Elliott is Asia Sentinel’s New Delhi correspondent

 

BALI – Latest Updates...Om Swastiastu ...



As this edition goes to press, the execution of Andrew Chan and Myuram Sukumaran of the “Bali Nine” looks increasingly certain to take place sometime tonight, Tuesday (most likely early Wednesday morning) in Central Java.

In other news: A young American couple from Chicago have been sentenced to 10 and 18 years in prison in the murder of a Chicago socialite in South Bali. (Kerry’s comment ‘Why such a light sentence for murder when the Bali 9 Duo are to be shot?)

A Bulgarian man is in police detention for committing international bank fraud from a base in Bali targeting foreign tourists. And, a 51-year-old Australian has died of an apparent heart attack while staying at a Legian, Kuta hotel.

In other tourism news: Bali has stopped issuing tourist guide licenses while the law governing guide licenses is revised. And, 16 areas in Bali have received special designation allowing a liberalized approach to beer sales.

The planned reclamation of Benoa Harbor remains in the news. The DPRD-Bali has given a green light to the reclamation of Benoa Bay. Protests have been staged in support of the “revitalization” of the bay. And an editorial by a Balinese living in West Java raised issues of equitability and water supply that argue strongly against reclaiming Benoa Bay.

The long-delayed Celukan Bawang power plant has finally begun testing prior to full commissioning.

The rabies fight continues. Bali to vaccinate 400,000 dogs in 2015 at a cost of US$692,000

Will Bali hit 4.3 million foreign tourists in 2015? March arrival figures are now in hand. Read the latest installment of “Bali by the Numbers” comparing Q1 tourist arrivals from 2008-2015.

Aviation News: All Indonesian airlines must report their financial condition to Ministry of Transport by April 30, 2015. American Airlines is offering round trip flights from Chicago to Bali for US$950. Bali’s airport is ranked in an international survey as the 7th best airport in a category for airports of its size.

Nepotism, cronyism and wasted public funds; The saga of Tanah Ampo continues as Jakarta surrenders control of the Port to the Karangasem Regency.

Bali Safari and Marine Park celebrate ‘Earth Day.”

The Mozaic Beach Club launches the Mozaic Brasserie – a new approach to beachside dining, opening May 15th.

Stenden University Bali offers scholarships in hotel and business management.


Looking Ahead:


 

 

Om Çanti Çanti Çanti Om ...

J.M. Daniels,
Editor Bali Update
Bali Discovery Tours

Sunday, April 26, 2015

Geography and World Power at 100


An important work of geopolitics was written 100 years ago.

One hundred years ago, British writer and teacher James Fairgrieve (1870-1953) wrote Geography and World Power, an important but mostly forgotten work on global geopolitics. Written during the First World War, Fairgrieve’s book sought to “show how the history of the world has been controlled by” geographical conditions.

Fairgrieve was an intellectual disciple of the great British geopolitical thinker Sir Halford Mackinder, and borrowed some of Mackinder’s concepts in formulating his own geopolitical worldview. Fairgrieve factored into his geopolitical analyses topography, location, climate, relative population density, the distribution of energy, the ease or difficulty of movement, and political and social organization.

Geography and World Power traced the impact of geographical conditions on the course of history, beginning with the desert, marsh and steppe lands of Egypt and Mesopotamia; to the near and readily accessible regions of Palestine and Phoenicia; to Greece, Carthage, and Rome; to the forest lands of Germany and Russia; to the great plain of Eurasia from which nomadic tribes invaded the settled peoples of Europe; to the lands of Arabia from which Mohammedans attempted to convert the known world to Islam; to the age of exploration and the discovery of the New World; to the African grasslands; to the Monsoon lands of China and India.

Four years later, after the cataclysm of the First World War, Fairgrieve added an important chapter to the book, “The Great Land Distributions: The World As It Is.” Here he synthesized the geographical analyses of the 1915 edition and looked beyond contemporary events to shed some light on the global geopolitics of the future.

“Within the last generation or two,” he wrote, “thanks largely to increased ease of communication, the world has become a single system with no part really independent of any other part.” The world consisted of two great land masses, he wrote, “the Old World parallelogram and the Americas, set in a greater ocean.” The Old World was home to three ancient settled civilizations – European, Indian, and Chinese. The dominant geographical feature of the Old World was the central “heartland” of “Euro-Asia,” which, Fairgrieve noted, “occupies, from the very fact of its effective centrality and size, a unique position in the world . . .”

Along the periphery of Eurasia on Fairgrieve’s geopolitical map were the lands of the “ocean border,” which included Britain, southern Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, and the Far East. He also identified a “crush zone” of smaller powers – Scandinavia, the Baltic States, southwest Asia and southeast Asia – situated between the heartland and ocean powers.

Fairgrieve identified three centers from which the Eurasian heartland could be politically controlled by outside ocean powers: Germany, China, and India. “In touch with the sea and tempted on to the ocean,” he wrote, “Germany is one of the sea powers, while her situation on the western and most populous margin of the great heartland makes her . . . a possible centre from which the heartland might be organized.” Meanwhile, “the Chinese are yet in touch with the sea, and reap advantages which they are ready to take from that position.” “[T]o an even greater extent than Germany,” he continued, “China is in a position to dominate the heartland . . .” “India,” Fairgrieve wrote, “is in an even more extraordinary position.” “Nearest of the lands of the ocean border to the margin of the heartland,” he continued, “it would be natural for India to take a foremost place in dominating that heartland.”

Fairgrieve pointed out that the “Old World system” he described shared the global stage with the New World with the United States as the leading player there. He expected that the U.S. would become “the seat of an ocean power, and play the part on a vaster scale which Britain played in earlier times.” “Removed, but not far removed by an ocean moat, from the direct effects of Old World strife, with power of all kinds, material and economic and moral,” he wrote, “the United States can claim to be arbiter in world disputes.”

Finally, he noted that Japan, after defeating Russia in 1904-05, had become a modern state and a world power whose ”influence is felt far beyond the island rim of eastern Asia.”

The world, he concluded, is a single economic system. The real problem of geopolitics, he noted, is not how to live separately but how to live together. He lamented the waste of lives and energy in the recently concluded world war, and expressed the hope that an effective League of Nations might preserve the peace.

Geography and World Power did indeed shed some light on the future. A hundred years ago, at a time when the United States was mostly looking inward, India was a colony of the British Empire, and China was riven by domestic strife, Fairgrieve accurately foresaw their geopolitical potential.

Francis P. Sempa is the author of Geopolitics: From the Cold War to the 21st Century (Transaction Books) and America’s Global Role: Essays and Reviews on National Security, Geopolitics and War (University Press of America). He is also a contributor to Population Decline and the Remaking of Great Power Politics (Potomac Books).  He has written on historical and foreign policy topics for Joint Force QuarterlyAmerican Diplomacy, the University BookmanThe Claremont Review of BooksThe DiplomatStrategic Review, the Washington Times and other publications. He is an attorney, an adjunct professor of political science at Wilkes University, and a contributing editor to American Diplomacy.

 

Saturday, April 25, 2015

Is This What Shinzo Abe Will Say in Washington Next Week?



A lot is riding on Abe’s speech before US Congress. His address in Indonesia gives an idea of what to expect.

On April 22, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe spoke at the Asian-African Conference commemorating the original “Bandung Conference.” In the speech, he discussed Japan’s strong commitment to upholding widely-accepted international principles such as “(r)efraining from acts or threats of aggression or the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any country,” and “(s)ettlement of all international disputes by peaceful means.” Abe also stressed that Japan’s resolve is rooted in the country’s “feelings of deep remorse over the past war.” He then went on to lay out his government’s plan of engaging in the activities that aims for helping the countries in Asia and Africa to achieve sustainable economic development.

The structure of his speech parallels the speech Abe delivered to the Australian Parliament when he visited Canberra in July 2014. In both speeches, Abe spoke clearly about how Japan’s foreign and security policy principles today are grounded in the country’s remorse over its wartime past and emphasized that these principles will not change. He also discussed in both speeches his vision for Japan’s engagement with the specific country that he was visiting at the time of his speech.

Based on these two speeches, it is very likely that Abe’s upcoming speech in front of the U.S. Congress will have a comparable structure. Specifically, it will probably have three components: a reference to “remorse” about Japan’s wartime behavior in some form, a discussion of the role of U.S.-Japan relations in Japan’s postwar rise as a “peace-loving country,” and an articulation of Abe’s own vision for Japan’s future role in the world.

Those who look to Abe to repeat the Japanese government’s official apologies for its wartime past — the 1993 Kono Statement and 1995 Murayama Statement, to be exact — will be disappointed.  Abe has already indicated in his interviews with the Japanese press that he would not be keen on, to put it simply, delivering a speech that does a “cut and paste” of these two statements.

If Abe makes a reference to remorse toward Japan’s wartime past, it will most likely come in the context of explaining how such “remorse” and reflection on its past shape Japan’s fundamental policy priorities today. The heavier emphasis will be on reaffirming that Japan will continue to honor these principles as it moves forward while it seeks to play a more robust role as a “rule-promoter, commons’ guardian, and an effective ally to the U.S. and other democracies,” as Abe himself put it in February 2013, during his first visit to Washington after taking office.

And the United States will very much welcome such a speech. A recent poll released by the Pew Research Center shows that a majority of the U.S. public — 61 percent — thinks that Japan has already apologized sufficiently, or that an apology is no longer necessary. Given that the overwhelming majority trusts Japan, America is ready to know more about Abe’s ideas for the future.

For Abe, so much is at stake for his visit to the U.S. next week. At the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, Abe’s performance during the visit could very much define his foreign policy legacy. A lot will depend on what Abe will say before the U.S. Congress on April 29. By for The Diplomat

 

 

Prominent Pakistani Social Activist Shot Dead in Karachi


A revolutionary voice was silenced in the bustling Pakistani city of Karachi.

Sabeen Mahmud, a Pakistani social activist, best known as the founder and director of T2F (The Second Floor), was shot by unidentified assailants on April 24. She died on her way to the hospital. Doctors said they retrieved five bullets from her body. Her mother who was accompanying her in the same car sustained bullet wounds and is currently being treated at a hospital; she is said to be in critical condition.

According to Dawn, T2F had on Friday organized a talk on Balochistan, titled “Unsilencing Balochistan Take 2: In Conversation with Mama Qadeer, Farzana Baloch & Mir Mohammad Ali Talpur.” Mahmud had left T2F after attending the session, when she was targeted.

T2F is one of the very few spaces in Karachi where people gather to discuss ideas and enjoy intellectually stimulating talks on social issues. Pakistan is a country that oscillates between freedom of speech and a lack of tolerance for dissent. Outside the country, there are pubs, forums, bars, and cafes where people get together to enjoy a stimulating conversation. But in Pakistan, there was dearth of such spaces until Mahmud built T2F, armed with an ambitious vision to serve the community. Without money and lacking market research, she decided to create a space for those curious minds who wanted to discuss their ideas openly and freely, without the burden of the societal and cultural restraints prevalent in Pakistani society. Over the course of six years, T2F had morphed into a very popular spot for gatherings, musical evenings, hackathons, and meetings.

Her last event featured two of Pakistan’s most vilified human rights activists: Mama Qadeer and Farzana Majeed, both of whom have worked to raise awareness about the dire situation in the southwestern province of Balochistan and its “missing people.”

T2F’s website describes the venue as follows: “Since its inception in May 2007, T2F has hosted hundreds of events, ranging from poetry readings and film screenings, to vibrant debates on critical issues. With the support and participation of musicians, artists, writers, film makers, scientists, comedians, thought leaders, and engaged audiences, T2F has contributed to revitalizing Karachi’s cultural landscape and has provided an alternative, independent, safe space for discourse.”

This is not the first time a revolutionary voice has been targeted in Pakistan. In January, Bob Dietz, the Asia Coordinator of the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) stated that, for a democratic country, Pakistan ranks worryingly high when it comes to the number of attacks on journalists and activists. In 2014, prominent journalist and Express News show “Khabar Se Aagay” host Raza Rumi narrowly escaped death after finishing a show in Lahore. According to a report in Express News, Rumi said unidentified armed men opened fire on his car. The driver later succumbed to his injuries, while his guard was also injured in the incident. Rumi added that although he had not received any direct threats but he was reportedly on the hit list of some extremist organizations. Similarly, Geo News‘ Hamid Mir was attacked by gunmen just over a year ago, sustaining major injuries.

T2F was created with the vision to protect Pakistan’s visionaries, to give them a space where they were safe to discuss ideas. For her efforts, Mahmud paid the ultimate price to give others a voice. The Diplomat

 

 

South China Sea: China's Unprecedented Spratlys Building Program


Subi Reef looks next in line for an airstrip, as building and reclamation continue with unprecedented speed.

High-resolution satellite images from April 17, 2015 reveal that in the space of ten weeks China has built an island on top of Subi Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands group. The dimensions and shape of the land fill, which is still underway, are compatible with a potential airstrip 3,300 meters long, similar to the prospective length of the runway currently being paved on Fiery Cross, the site of another installation being built by China on a former reef in the Spratlys.

Military analysts have observed that a runway 3,300 meters long could support virtually all types of combat and supply aircraft in China’s navy and air force.


As recently as February 6, 2015, only two small sites of dredging and land fill activity were detectable at Subi Reef, part of a maritime region that is claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Taiwan, as well as China. As of April 17, 2015, the land fill of Subi measured 2.27 square kilometers in area, on a par with the rapidly manufactured island at Fiery Cross Reef, recently assessed as 2.65 square kilometers in area.

A notable difference between China’s buildup at Fiery Cross versus Subi is that Fiery Cross has a sizable new port as well as a runway/taxiway under construction. No such navy-caliber port facility is seen in the new images of Subi; however, a channel on the south rim of the reef is being expanded, and the near-complete enclosure formed by the natural reef provides a protective harbor in its own right. In addition, extensive ongoing land fill at the southern extremity of Subi could be purposed for marine docks.

Disputed Mischief Reef in the Spratlys, also the site of rapid land reclamation by China, has been filled in with sand and coral cuttings to an area of approximately 2.42 square kilometers as of April 13, 2015, from virtually no above-water terrain as of a few months ago. Satellite imagery shows a minimum of 23 dredgers operating at Mischief on April 13, along with at least two dozen other large construction-related vessels within the lagoon formed by the circular reef. In that day’s satellite image, 28 concrete transport/mixing trucks can be seen, in addition to dozens of other large trucks and dozens of backhoes.

China is expanding its land fill across the northern rim of Mischief Reef as well, along a relatively straight portion of the submerged reef with dimensions that could support a landing strip longer than 3,000 meters. Imagery of the southwest rim of Mischief shows the complete filling-in of a large sector of reef in a mere eight weeks.

Subi, Mischief and Fiery Cross reefs are three of at least seven reefs in the Spratly Islands that have been filled in by China and are being outfitted for purposes that are most likely military in nature

The speed, scale, intensity and remoteness of China’s ongoing manufacture of land and infrastructure within the South China Sea have few or no parallels in history outside of wartime. The frenzy of the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s building program in the Spratlys, a thousand kilometers from China’s shoreline, is a demonstration of its territorial intentions, as well as a show of the current government’s competency in swiftly executing massive projects to back up its ambitions. The result will be an enlarged international footprint for China’s military, submerging the territorial claims of weaker nations.

[Subi Reef is known as Zamora in Filipino, Đá Xu Bi in Vietnamese, and Zhubi Jiao in Chinese. Fiery Cross Reef is known as Kagitingan in Filipino, Đá Chữ Thập in Vietnamese, and Yongshu Jiao in Chinese. Mischief Reef is known as Panganiban in Filipino, Đá Vành Khăn in Vietnamese and Meiji Jiao in Chinese.]

Victor Robert Lee reports from the Asia-Pacific region and is the author of the espionage novel Performance Anomalies.