Kerry B. Collison Asia News: Brexit and Southeast Asia: Return Of British Naval...

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: Brexit and Southeast Asia: Return Of British Naval...: Although it should not be exaggerated, a persistent British naval presence in Southeast Asia should be expected now that commitments ...

Brexit and Southeast Asia: Return Of British Naval Presence?

Although it should not be exaggerated, a persistent British naval presence in Southeast Asia should be expected now that commitments to Iraq and Afghanistan have reduced.

 

Sparked by recent comments by the British Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, there has been a good deal of excited speculation about the prospect of a large-scale British military re-appearance in Southeast Asia complete with aircraft carriers and new bases. Its critics argue that this can be simply attributed to the country’s desire to reinvent itself after Brexit. Is there a nostalgic desire to try to return to the days of Empire? In fact, it’s all a bit more complicated than that.

First of all, the United Kingdom’s intention to increase its engagement with Southeast Asia has long preceded the Brexit project (although that has probably accentuated the drive for a ‘global Britain’ that is international by design); and far from being a harking back to the old days is a response to some very modern realities and developments. Chief amongst these is the rate of growth in Southeast Asia and the extent of today’s mutually beneficial linkages between the economies of the UK and the region.

Less of Shift in Policy

Southeast Asia is the UK’s third largest non-EU export market and the UK is the second biggest EU investor in the area. Moreover Southeast Asia is the UK’s third biggest market for defence exports. For all these reasons, the British, like other Europeans, have concluded that they should try for a more persistent presence not just in Southeast Asia but in the whole of the Indo-Pacific region, as part of an ‘All of Asia’ project.

Equally clearly this is not to be part of a plan to compete with, still less contain, China, which is also an important trading partner. It is, however, designed to contribute to the defence of the rules-based order.

This is less of a shift in policy than is often realised. Back in the 1970s the ink had hardly dried on the Wilson Government’s controversial decision to abandon Singapore and its ‘East of Suez’ commitment, than the British naval staff, with Foreign Office approval, set about organising an annual series of ‘group deployments’ through the area and shortly after that established the so-called ‘Beira patrol’.

This was a permanent frigate force off the Gulf which little by little acted as a fore-runner for the substantial task group and semi-permanent mine countermeasures force that distinguished itself in the first Gulf War in the 1990s and afterwards.

When combined with the Five Power Defence Arrangements, the ‘Five Eyes’ relationship especially with Australia and New Zealand, the continuing deployment to Brunei and even the small oiling facility at Sembawang in Singapore, this all makes it seem less a question of the British ‘coming back’ to the region, more a recognition that they never really left.

More Visible British Naval Presence?

But certainly the expensive land-centric strategic distractions of Iraq and Afghanistan, together with the effects of great recession of 2008 and the harsh defence review of 2010 did lead to a significant diminution of the British naval presence. A more persistent naval presence in the region is now possible and is being sought.

For this some local logistic support is necessary but nothing like the old Singapore ‘base’ which would be ruinously expensive, politically highly controversial and operationally completely unnecessary. Instead the British, like other navies, not least the Chinese, seek enhanced facilities such as they have completed in Bahrain and just agreed at Duqm in Oman where ships can be refuelled, routine maintenance conducted and crews rested or rotated.

Already with most ambitious deployment for many years of three major assets, including the assault ship HMS Albion and with the Queen Elizabeth likely to make its operational debut in the region by the beginning of 2021, a greater British naval footprint is already emerging.

Moreover such an enhanced presence is likely to be conducted with traditional friends in the area, and this will help too. Relations with the navies of Southeast Asia are good. Moreover both the Australians and the Canadians have chosen the Royal Navy’s highly sophisticated Type 26 frigate for their fleet renewal programmes (and the New Zealanders might follow suit in some form) and this will greatly increase prospects for naval cooperation in the years to come.

The UK’s European partners are likewise interested in working with the Royal Navy, wherever it is, especially in exploring the disciplines of carrier escort, and of course have their own very similar reasons for wanting a presence in the Indo-Pacific region.

Challenges Ahead

Nonetheless there are still major challenges ahead, quite apart from the obvious need to handle local reactions sensitively. The Type 26 programme, the more modest Type 31 frigate programme, the completion of the carrier and F-35b fighter project when added to the very high costs of the Successor ballistic missile firing submarine programme, simultaneously combine into a formidable charge on the UK Defence budget at a time of Brexit-induced uncertainty.

Nor is Southeast Asia the only area in which the UK has an interest it needs to signal. Russian truculence in European waters and the growing importance of the Far North and the Arctic demand a countervailing attention and will remain the top strategic priority. The Mediterranean, the Gulf, the Caribbean and the South Atlantic matter too.

It will be a challenge to meet such a diverse range of commitments with a frigate and destroyer fleet that has dropped from 32 at the time of the 1997/8 Strategic Defence review to just 19 now.

However, it would seem from last year’s relatively benign Modernising Defence Review that something of a renaissance is underway. In all probability, the British will in American revolutionary John Paul Jones’ words ‘be coming’ unless present intentions are derailed by some disastrous Brexit outcome or dramatic strategic deterioration in Europe, but in a cautious and considered way which will depend heavily on the degree of welcome accorded the UK by friends and partners in the region.

This will be measured by the degree of success achieved by the UK’s bid to engage with ASEAN through establishing linkages with ADMM+ and the Expert Working groups. The probable increase in the visibility of the Royal Navy in Southeast Asian waters after all is just one fairly small part of a much bigger package of political and economic efforts to engage with the region.

*Professor Geoffrey Till is an Advisor to the Maritime Security Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

 

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The world is overlooking the danger of the current West Papuan resolve for independence from Indonesia. The West Papuan Freedom Movement has now successfully lodged a request with the United Nations to revisit the flawed 1969 plebiscite. This could bring Australia and Indonesia again into conflict! Read the new book release “Rockefeller and the Demise of Ibu Pertiwi” eBook and print on demand all online platforms.

 Go to http://sidharta.com.au and email your manuscript to author@sidharta.com.au

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Kerry B. Collison Asia News: Trouble in the Tropics: The Legacy of the Bali Bom...: With the elections fast approaching in Indonesia, leaders are hard-pressed to maintain the population’s support despite recent challenge...

Trouble in the Tropics: The Legacy of the Bali Bombings on Indonesian Elections

With the elections fast approaching in Indonesia, leaders are hard-pressed to maintain the population’s support despite recent challenges. Religion and terrorism in particular have been thorny issues for President Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, who is seeking re-election on April 17.

On January 18, the Jokowi administration announced its intentions to release 80 year-old Abu Bakar Bashir from prison over humanitarian concerns given his age and deteriorating health. Bashir is the spiritual leader of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the militant group responsible for the 2002 Bali bombings, one of Indonesia’s deadliest terrorist attacks in which 202 individuals were killed, including 88 Australians. JI is also believed to be a regional branch of the al-Qaeda network. Bashir himself has never been found to be directly involved in the bombing, but he was arrested on charges of funding a training camp for Islamic militants and encouraging extremists to carry out terrorist attacks.

Jokowi’s preoccupation to improve his image and electability among Muslim communities before the elections seems to support the idea that his decision regarding Bashir is politically motivated. Some believe that it is a pre-emptive move to diffuse criticism ahead of the release of former Jakarta governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama. Basuki, a Christian of Chinese origin, was found guilty of blasphemy against Islam after he quoted a verse of the Qu’ran and insinuated that his opponents had used the passage to trick Muslims into voting against him.

In an analysis published by the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank, regional terrorism expert Sidney Jones argued that the legal grounds of Jokowi’s decision are unclear. It is neither a pardon nor an amnesty, because Bashir never requested a pardon and the decision seems to violate Regulation 99 of 2012 from Indonesia’s Ministry of Law and Human Rights.

This stipulates that the release of offenders such as convicted terrorists is contingent on their willingness to sign a loyalty oath to the Indonesian government. It was on those grounds that the Jokowi government later backtracked on their plan. Bashir refused to pledge his allegiance to the nation and the state ideology of Pancasila, which promotes pluralism. There seems to be no good reason as to why this requirement should be waived for humanitarian reasons.

Unfortunately, the damage has already been done. Domestically, public outrage at Jokowi’s decision has alienated his supporters, which include moderates, families of the Bali bombing victims, and the police, the judiciary and the bureaucracy who were involved in the fight against JI. Along with the appointment of conservative cleric Ma’ruf Amin as his running mate, these recent decisions made by Jokowi have contributed to a growing sense among his supporters  that the President is more concerned with courting the Islamic vote rather than promoting an agenda that addresses social and economic issues.

At the same time, the reversal of Jokowi’s initial plan to release Bashir has also angered conservative Muslims who accused the President of making empty promises. There was no clear guarantee that this decision would help Jokowi change the minds of conservative Muslims and effectively gain their support.

Many people who opposed the release of Bashir have also threatened not to vote for Jokowi. In Indonesia, voters can choose to cast a blank vote, or an abstention from voting. This practice, called golput, is usually interpreted as a sign that the electorate does not believe that the candidates deserve their votes. Golput was used a symbol of protest in Suharto’s authoritarian New Order regime, at a time when the winner was already determined before the election and alternative parties were either banned or tightly controlled.

Recently, pro-golput voices were heard following the first presidential debate and the announcement of Jokowi’s plan to release Bashir. Jokowi supporters have begun to waver, and may choose the golput option on their ballots given that most do not see Prabowo Subianto, the incumbent’s opponent, as a possible alternative. However, opting for golput in 2019 could potentially mean surrendering the political future of the country to Prabowo and his authoritarian tendencies.

Much more seems to be at risk now. Bashir’s lawyer Muhammad Mahendradatta has threatened to take legal action to demand the release of the religious leader based on his health conditions. Mahendradatta maintains that Bashir has never been found guilty for any bombing, and that the regulation requiring him to sign a pact of allegiance to Pancasila should not apply given that it was passed in 2012 and cannot be retroactive. Yusril Ihza Mahendra, a legal advisor to Jokowi’s re-election campaign, has warned that “if [Bashir] is entitled to parole and that right is not given, the government could be sued and lose.”

Even worse, although Bashir’s influence has waned over the years, anti-terrorism experts suspect that the timing of this incident will help burnish his image as a hero of militant Islamism among hardliners.

What does this incident say about Indonesia’s elections? For one, these elections may be more unpredictable than they seem. Even if Jokowi has a substantial lead over his opponent Prabowo, it would not take much more than a political scandal to potentially turn the tables. Furthermore, Jokowi’s failed political gamble demonstrates the need for leaders to be careful when pulling the religion card, which could easily do more harm than good.

Published By : Patricia Sibal

The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and they do not reflect the position of the McGill Journal of Political Studies or the Political Science Students’ Association. 

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