The news on Saturday that Indonesia and China will cooperate in cyber war
exercises is big enough in itself for strategic relationships in the
region. At the same time, it shows that the two countries have an advanced understanding
of what cyber war will look like and it sets a new diplomatic precedent in how
states must work together in preparing for the most likely impacts of cyber
war.
The
magazine Tempo reported that the two countries will develop a
cooperation program that includes “cyber-war simulations, cyber-war responses
and mitigations, cyber monitoring, cyber-crisis management, and data center
restoration planning.” The intent of this program does not appear to be
oriented to joint military cooperation but rather focuses on government
responses to the inevitable impacts of cyber war on civil infrastructure.
The
deepening collaboration in the defense relationship between Indonesia and China
is a useful counter to the exaggerated sense of regional polarization over
maritime security between China and other South China Sea littoral states,
backed by the United States, Japan, and Australia. The relationship between
Indonesia and China had been something of a roller-coaster ride between
cooperation and enmity in the first half century after 1949, but it has now
stabilized on all fronts. As just one example, in October 2015, the two defense
ministers met and declared their intention to help
maintain regional peace. Sydney University published an excellent study of the
strategic relationship in November 2015.
The
proposed cyber collaboration revealed this week covers four areas:
- information and
communication technology strategy (cybersecurity awareness for
decision-making purposes and cybersecurity in national infrastructure
development);
- capacity building in
operations and technology (in digital forensics, information security,
network security, cyber risk management, big data analysis, and the
digital economy)
- joint research in
cybersecurity (cryptography operating systems, cyber law, cyber terrorism,
and counter cyber intelligence)
- joint operations
(cyber war simulation, response and mitigation in cyber war, cyber
monitoring, cyber crisis management, and resilience).
The
breadth of the proposed cyber relationship goes well beyond that between China
and other developing countries, but does not approach the quite close cyber
relationship China has with Russia. The unique aspect of this agreement is that
it implies quite clearly an advanced understanding in both countries of the
civil sector impacts of future cyber war. As outlined in my recent
research paper, with an eye to the future threat horizon, all
countries “need to develop complex responsive systems of decision-making for
medium intensity war that address multi-vector, multi-front and multi-theater
attacks in cyber space, including against civilian infrastructure and civilians
involved in the war effort”.
The Indonesian
official revealing the proposed cyber cooperation with China to the Indonesian News Agency
was a specialist from the National Cyber Information Defense Security and
Resilient Agency (DKKICN), Muchlis Ahmady. He shares my assessment, which is
both self-evident and widely shared internationally, that most middle powers
cannot provide national cyber security on their own. He observed that “the key
to a successful cyberspace crisis management is coordination and sharing.”
Indonesia
does not see China as its enemy in cyberspace but as a necessary partner. The
two countries have set a diplomatic precedent for cyberspace cooperation outside
of existing alliances or strategic partnerships by being prepared to consider
joint cyber war simulations on a direct bilateral and official level. Other
Asia-Pacific states could learn from this. By Greg Austin
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