Israel is in the midst of an
historical shift of international economic relations emphasis from Europe
and the U.S. to south and east Asia, including China, Japan, South Korea,
Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore and India. All indices of Israeli international
trade and investment are pointing in the same direction. The
question now is how does Israel transform itseconomic success in Asia to
political, diplomatic and perhaps eventually military support. Along
with this development is another equally significant one, namely the
formation of an informal alliance of Sunni states, including Egypt,
Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states (except Qatar) in countering Iran
and extremist Islamic terrorist organizations.
Israel is actively collaborating with those countries in security, defense and intelligence activities, as well as such economic projects as gas supply to Jordan and the Red to Dead Sea water project in that country.
Stay tuned for major economic/scientific/technological
collaboration with Egypt in the works. Chatham House Rules, Norman A.
Bailey
A confidential dialogue between China and Israel?
ReplyDeleteWithout knowing much of Middle East dynamics I tend to like Dr. Codevilla’s analysis, in particular because by trying to engineer a result you often end up with unintended consequences, even in best case scenarios. Look at what we do with children: we want them to go in one direction and if we only push them a little too hard or a little soft, they spin out of control. Societies and states I am afraid are even more so, and the recent history of direct or indirect intervention in Afghanistan, Iraq, Egypt, Libya and Syria seem to prove the point.
Having said that I believe that two constraints are better than one. The parent at home is better off with his child if he is on the same page with the teacher at school. (The analogy is over simplistic, but it is an illustration).
So it is very absurd to try to engage both Israel and China in a confidential dialogue over Iran? The Chinese are worried about instabilities in the region and are eager to do anything that could guarantee the safety for the passage of their One Belt One Road. They are rational, maybe too rational for the crazy Middle East, but being rational are also extremely cautious with something they do not understand. Perhaps they could help in “stroking” Iran to normality, and as extra value US-China collaboration on a sensitive issue (the Middle East) could be a bonus. Israel, perhaps could be more comforted in having China in the picture. With the Chinese the Israeli are growing a good collaboration on many issues.
As for the players in the region, there is hardly anybody worth trusting, so mistrust them all equally, and equally manage them, with some extra support. At the end of the day, the Chinese need peace in the region for their railways, not the Americans, so this is a card Washington could play well, and the Chinese I guess would be willing to play along. Chatham House Rules, Francesco Sisci