Chinese
nuclear experts think that the nuclear threat posed by North Korea is much
greater than previously thought.
A report in the Wall Street Journal released on
Wednesday notes that “China’s top nuclear experts” have upped their threat
assessments of North Korea’s nuclear weapons production. Per the report, which
is based off comments made by those experts at a “closed-door meeting with U.S.
nuclear specialists,” these Chinese experts perceived North Korea to pose a
greater nuclear threat than even most contemporary U.S. assessments. The
report comes not long after the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins
University’s School of Advanced International Studies released a new report
suggesting that North Korea could, in an extreme scenario, possess up to 100
nuclear warheads by 2020 (if you missed it, Shannon Tiezzi and I spoke to Joel
Wit, one of the authors of that report, on The Diplomat’s podcast).
The Journal’s report suggest
that the latest Chinese estimates place North Korea’s active nuclear arsenal as
of April 2015 at 20 warheads. This number is unconfirmed as no one outside
of North Korea—not even China, Pyongyang’s erstwhile closest partner—knows the
specifics of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. Interestingly, the report notes
that the Chinese experts believe that North Korea is capable of producing
sufficient amounts of weapons-grade uranium to “double its arsenal by next
year.” That claim doesn’t quite line up with most studies of North Korea’s
uranium program in the West. North Korea’s nuclear tests have all so far been
plutonium-based devices, and while the country has long been known to
have an interest in enriching uranium for use in a weapons program, there
is considerable disagreement regarding the extent to which this program is
operational or even viable. David Albright offers the most recent
independent U.S. take on the Pyongyang’s progress on weapons-grade uranium (see
pages 6-10 onward in this document).
Siegfried Hecker, a former
head of the Los Alamos National Laboratory and the lead U.S. technical
expert at the meeting with Chinese experts, told the Wall Street Journal that
the Chinese “believe on the basis of what they’ve put together now that the
North Koreans have enough enriched uranium capacity to be able to make eight to
10 bombs’ worth of highly enriched uranium per year.” Though it is likely based
on unverified information and educated estimation, that’s quite a spectacular
claim regarding North Korea’s abilities.
The sounding of the alarm by
representatives of the Chinese government and Chinese experts on North Korea’s
nuclear program is not a new phenomenon, but the new alarmism about Pyongyang’s
growing arsenal and uranium program suggests that China is keen for the United
States, and other countries, to take the North Korean nuclear issue back
to the negotiating table. In the years since the Six-Party Talks on North
Korea’s nuclear program fell apart, China has been actively campaigning for a
return to negotiations while the United States has refused to do so until the
North Korean government demonstrates in good faith that it is willing to
negotiate by taking action to increase its transparency or cooperate with
international investigators, from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
for example.
Based on statements by senior U.S.
diplomatic officials, the United States will likely be unconvinced by heightened
threat perceptions of North Korea’s capabilities. In recent months, senior U.S.
military officials, including Admiral William Gortney of U.S. Northern Command,
have suggested that North Korea’s nuclear program is likely sophisticated
enough to the point where it is worth taking Pyongyang’s intercontinental
ballistic missile (ICBM) capability seriously. Gortney, in March, suggested
that North Korea could mount a nuclear device for delivery via its
5,600 mile-range KN-08 ICBM. Meanwhile, Admiral Cecil D. Haney of U.S.
Strategic Command suggested that North Korea was making progress toward
operationalizing a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) capability as
well.
With threat assessments rising in
both the United States and China, it is at least certain that North Korea
will remain an area of discussion of the two countries in their bilateral
dialogues, even if they continue to disagree about the utility of multilateral
talks. Chinese President Xi Jinxing is scheduled to visit Washington later this
year. He will likely bring up Kim Jong-un’s nuclear ambitions in his talks with
U.S. President Barack Obama. It’ll be worth keeping an eye on official Chinese
statements on North Korea to determine if there is common ground between the
official Chinese government position on North Korea and the opinions of Chinese
nuclear experts. Generally, China, while concerned about North Korea’s nuclear
program, hasn’t taken Pyongyang’s abilities too seriously. That could be
changing soon. The Diplomat
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