Saturday, November 1, 2014

Jokowi’s cabinet a mixed bag



Indonesia’s recently inaugurated president, Joko Widodo (Jokowi), announced his cabinet this week. Jokowi’s policy platform espoused broad philosophies but was short on detail. His cabinet appointments provide the clearest indication to date of his policies and priorities in what in all likelihood will be a decade in power.

The appointments will cement his political alliances and satisfy his powerful backer, former president Megawati. But it will disappoint his reformist supporters who, attracted to his earlier commitment to appoint a ‘cabinet of professionals’, were looking for signs of an energetic administration prepared to tackle the country’s many daunting development challenges. It is a cabinet of managers, business people, and — perhaps inevitably — a surprising number of political appointees.

First, the good news.

The cabinet scores relatively well on personal integrity. Jokowi cleverly referred his draft list to the national anti-corruption commission (KPK), and eight names were dropped. Jokowi was relieved that the KPK in effect blacklisted several unattractive political appointees from the draft.
 

Second, like the president himself, the cabinet is a decisive break with the past. It is younger, and has more women than any previous Indonesian cabinet. It is essentially a secular cabinet, in this the country with the largest number of adherents to Islam. There are also excellent appointments in some key portfolios, notably Finance, Foreign Affairs, and Basic Education and Culture.

At least 14 of the 34-member cabinet are clear political appointments. Starting with Megawati’s daughter, Puan, the majority of these people — though not all — owe their position more to their party affiliation than their talent. Another eight ministers come with senior business experience, often in Indonesia’s sprawling state enterprise sector. The ‘technocratic’ appointments, of able non-party professionals, that have been a feature of all Indonesian cabinets since the mid 1960s are greatly reduced.

This managerial approach may be no bad thing. It is consistent with Jokowi’s approach to local government, and also that of his vice president, Jusuf Kalla. But it may well signal a more inward-looking Indonesia, consistent with the strong nationalist rhetoric that featured in the presidential and parliamentary campaigns.

In the economics team, the able new Finance Minister, Professor Bambang Brodjonegoro, a deputy minister in the previous government, will have his work cut out for him, especially given looming budget problems. His coordinating economics minister can be expected to focus more on housekeeping than reform. The trade minister is an accomplished businessman, yet firmly in the nationalist cum protectionist camp, just as Indonesia is set to join the ‘seamless Southeast Asian economy’ promised by the ASEAN Economic Community. The state enterprises minister, a Megawati loyalist and trade minister in her earlier administration, cannot be expected to undertake the much-needed reform this sector urgently requires. The agriculture, industry, labour and planning ministers are relatively unknown figures, and are likely to keep a low profile.

Notwithstanding these qualifications, the new cabinet needs time to settle in. This has been a heady year for Indonesia. A political outsider with limited financial means, but a demonstrated record of integrity and effective governance at the local level, was elected peacefully and convincingly. In his earlier life as a mayor and a governor, Jokowi has exhibited a remarkable ability to get things done. But now the euphoria generated during the election campaigns has had to meet the political reality of constructing a ‘rainbow cabinet’, representing all the disparate elements in the Jokowi camp.

Indonesia is an immensely complicated country to govern. Jokowi has attempted to induce some parties from the fiercely obstructionist ‘red and white’ opposition coalition to join his governing coalition. But he still does not possess a majority in the Parliament. In any case, national governments in Indonesia have limited room to manoeuvre. They have to deal with more than 500 increasingly assertive sub-national governments. A good deal of the national budget is effectively pre-committed through various expenditure mandates. And Jakarta has to rely on a sluggish, unreformed bureaucracy to implement its policies.

The next major test for Jokowi will be how he delivers on his 100-day agenda, in pushing through budgetary reform, getting infrastructure moving again, and simplifying the complex regulatory regime. This week’s cabinet appointments suggest that we should not expect as many of the ‘quick wins’ that his reformist supporters were hoping for.

Hal Hill is Professor of Economics at the Australian National University. Budy Resosudarmo is Head of the Indonesia Project at the Australian National University.

 

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