The United States partially lifted its decades-old ban on weapons sales to
Vietnam on 2 October 2014. This was one of the most significant steps in
improving relations between the two former enemies since they normalised
diplomatic ties nearly two decades ago. The US State Department made clear this
decision related only to maritime surveillance systems and said the move was
taken in response to improvements in Vietnam’s human rights environment.
Washington’s policy shift
was widely seen as an effort to bolster Vietnam’s maritime security at a time
when China is stepping up its assertiveness in the South China Sea disputes.
The move was no doubt in part prompted by China’s deployment of an oil
exploration rig near the Paracel Islands claimed by both Beijing and Hanoi in
May.
But US officials did their
best to downplay the role of China’s recent activities in their decision. One
senior US official said it was made ‘in response to the realisation that there
is a lack of maritime capacity in the region and it is useful to fill that
gap’. He added: ‘it is not in response to a specific action or crisis at the
moment. This is not an anti-China move’.
US officials had long held
back lifting the ban. They assumed that the Vietnamese, who have depended on
Russia for military hardware for decades, were more interested in a US stamp of
approval than in actually buying American equipment. But since early 2014, US
officials say, Vietnam had started to express interest in buying American-made
radar and surveillance equipment.
The importance of the
decision in Vietnam–US relations will depend on whether Hanoi decides to take
advantage of its new access to American technology. The new policy makes it
possible for Vietnam to buy patrol boats for its coast guard and surveillance
planes. The Lockheed P-3 Orion planes have advanced sonar detection equipment
to monitor activities off Vietnam’s coast, including detecting Chinese
submarines operating in its exclusive economic zone.
In the wake of the US
announcement, China launched a charm offensive with Hanoi. This was an apparent
effort to dampen any Vietnamese enthusiasm for buying American military
hardware. In late October, China’s State Councillor Yang Jiechi visited Vietnam
for high-level meetings, during which the two sides agreed to tamp down
tensions in the South China Sea. A week earlier, Vietnamese defence minister Phuong
Quang Thanh led a senior military delegation to Beijing for talks. They agreed
to set up an emergency hotline between the two defence ministries to avoid
future escalation like what followed China’s oil rig deployment.
Now that Vietnam has the
opportunity, whether officials will actually buy weapons from US companies will
likely prompt considerable debate in Hanoi. Some senior Vietnam Communist Party
leaders have worried over the years that moving to upgrade military-to-military
ties with the US would provoke China to increase its pressure on Vietnam and
its assertiveness in the South China Sea.
The partial lifting of the
arms ban removes one more impediment to closer Hanoi–Washington relations,
which have improved remarkably since they normalised relations in 1995. The two
countries are working to boost trade and investment ties as two of 12
negotiating partners in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. They also want
to boost people-to-people ties in areas such as environmental protection in the
Mekong River delta.
But there is still much left
to do. The United States would like to step up military ties with Vietnam
through more frequent ship visits, joint naval patrols and increased
cooperation in areas such as search and rescue, humanitarian assistance and
disaster relief. But Vietnam is moving cautiously in these areas. Hanoi would
like Washington to fully lift its arms ban, but the United States says that
will depend on further moves in Vietnam to improve the human rights situation.
The partial lifting of the
military sales ban is the next step in Washington’s efforts to increase its
ties to Southeast Asia and help Vietnam boost maritime surveillance capacity in
their waters. US policy has moved beyond simply calling for freedom of
navigation and negotiations to resolve disputes. Now it is helping countries
along the rim of the South China Sea to bolster their maritime security
capabilities.
Murray Hiebert is senior
fellow and deputy director, Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies, Center
for Strategic and International Studies.
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