Chinese J-11 Fighters Exercise in the South China Sea After US Navy Patrols

After protesting a U.S. Navy freedom of navigation patrol, the PLA flexes its airpower muscles in the South China Sea.

Chinese fighter jets are carrying out exercises in the South China Sea. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) released images late last week that showed J-11BH/BHS fighters in the South China Sea. The jets were armed with missiles and are likely part of the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s 8th Aviation Division in Hainan Province. The fighters are companied by other aircraft and warships from the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) South Sea Fleet. Though unconfirmed by the PLA, the J-11s are most likely flying from Woody Island (known as Yongxing Island in Chinese) in the Paracels. Woody Island is the location of the sole operational Chinese military airstrip in the South China Sea at the moment though China is thought to be building at least two additional airstrips in the Spratly Islands, where it has built man-made islands.

The aerial exercises come after a heated week in the South China Sea. On Tuesday, October 27, the United States Navy staged its first freedom of navigation operation within 12 nautical miles of Subi Reef, where China has constructed an artificial island. The U.S. freedom of navigation operation asserted high seas navigational freedoms in those waters and drew an angry response from the Chinese government. Additionally, on Thursday, October 29, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, where the Philippines has filed a case against China over its behavior and claims in the South China Sea, decided that it had jurisdiction to assess the merits of the Philippines’ arguments. That development too drew a strong response from the Chinese government, which declared the Court “null and void,” among other things.

Under pressure to act to in the South China Sea, the PLA has evidently chosen to demonstrate its aerial force projection capabilities in the South China Sea by flying these J-11 fighters from Woody Island. Speaking to the South China Morning Post, retired Chinese General Xu Guangyu, notes that the exercises are ” a signal China sent to the US that it is serious about its claims. This is the minimum level of response China should have, or it will fail the expectation of its people.” The fighters will also renew speculation that China could be looking to eventually enforce a South China Sea air defense identification zone (ADIZ). In November 2013, Beijing unilaterally declared an ADIZ in the East China Sea, though it has had mixed results in enforcing the ADIZ.

Notably, the J-11 exercises have been heavily featured and discussed in the Chinese press. The PLA’s own outlet, PLA Daily, highlighted images of the J-11s during the exercise on its website, in both English and Chinese. PLA Daily noted that the jets were rehearsing “real air battle tactics.” People’s Daily China shared video of Chinese J-10 fighters executing an aerial refueling maneuver. With aerial refueling, Chinese J-10 and J-11 fighters will be capable of conducting longer range missions in the South China Sea. With the eventual completion of airstrips in the Spratly Islands, at Fiery Cross and Subi Reefs, China could potentially project aerial power across the entirety of the South China Sea. By Ankit Panda for The Diplomat

BALI…Latest Updates…Om Swastiastu ...

This is the 1,000th edition of Bali Update that has been published without fail for more than 17 years since March of 1998. If you’ve been reading Bali Update over all or some of those years, we're sure you’ll agree the changes in Bali have been remarkable. We hope you’ll consider supporting us by advertising with Balidiscovery.com and Bali Update to help keep the news flowing on matters related to Bali tourism to our 40,000 subscribers.

Leading the news this week: Discussions continue between Indian and Indonesian authorities on the extradition of a serial killer from Bali. A private yacht has been hijacked by pirates while sailing between Lombok and Bali. And, a Bali travel agent has been arrested by Police for apparently absconding with money paid for a Singapore study tour by a group of Balinese university students.

In an effort to crack down on illegal foreign workers in Bali, Immigration authorities have announced that travelers using visa-free or visa-on-arrival facilities more than twice in twelve months will be refused entry to Bali.

Are property rules changing in Indonesia? By my estimation, not much! Read my take on land ownership by foreigners in Bali and the possibly rocky hold ahead for many foreigners and their nominees.

The National Police Chief has issued guidelines and procedures designed to curb hate speech in Indonesia.

President Widodo has promised to push to allow dual nationality for Indonesians and in so doing has earned applause from thousands of members of the Indonesian Diaspora Network.

We have three articles on Bali’s Toll Road. Fares increased on the Mandara Toll on November 1, 2015. Toll operators complain traffic levels on the road are still insufficient to cover loan repayments and operating expenses. And, the use of cashless e-money on the toll road is still struggling to become popular.

News on Bali’s Labor front: The National government has made a strategic retreat on plans to introduce a range of new labor regulations deemed to be inimical to foreign workers. 20,000 tourism industry workers in Bali will undergo competency testing before the end of the year, And, guide fees for official guide service are slated to increase 35% in 2016.

In Hotel News, the Westin Resort Nusa Dua appoints a new executive chef.

Aviation News: Citilink Indonesia and Garuda Indonesia begin to count the large losses caused by haze from forest fires in certain parts of the Country. And, new rules now mean Indonesian officials will have to carry their own hand luggage and board commercial flights minus any assistance from obsequiously fawning subordinates,

Health News: The Bali Red Cross held its annual meeting to strategize how to prevent and treat HIV/AIDS. Bali’s Governor pledges the Bali Mandara Hospital now under construction will offer an integrated standard of medical service. And, a crowd-funding project is underway to establish a HIV Clinic and Counseling Center in the former home of murdered American expatriate Paul Latourell.

From the Bali X Files: Villagers in West Bali have exhumed the unmarked graves of neighbors cut down in the anti-communist purge of 1965 in order to restore spiritual balance to their community.

You can’t hit a moving target! We cover the ever-changing tourism targets being set by the Indonesian Ministry of Tourism.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Joint exhibition of 10 Artists at The Griya Santrian Gallery in Sanur through November 30, 2015.
• Pearls of North Bali – an exhibition in the Lobby of the Conrad Bali Resort  through January 10, 2016.
• ‘Human Roots’- an Exhibition of Wood Sculptures by Mickael Obrenovitch at the Sofitel Bali Nusa Dua through December 4, 2015
• 4th International Conference on Family Planning November 9-12, 2015.
• ‘Bali Carnaval’ and Wedding Exhibition November 12-15, 2015
• Save the Balinese Language! Join a World-Wide Simulcast on Saraswati Day, November 27, 2015
• Asian Heritage Network to Meet in Denpasar and Yogyakarta January 8-12, 2016.
• 2016 Interhash Run in Bali May 19-22, 2016
• Registration ope for the 2016 Bali & Beyond Travel Fair June 23-26, 2016. 

 

Keep the news coming and advertise your products on Bali Discovery and Bali Update

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Om Çanti Çanti Çanti Om ...

J.M. Daniels,
Editor Bali Update
Bali Discovery Tours

Is Jokowi Nostalgic for the Good Ol' Days of Suharto?

The civil societies of both Indonesia and the world were understandably stunned when Indonesian authorities in Bali made threats to break up the 2015 Ubud Writers and Readers Festival unless the organizers agreed to cancel certain sessions discussing the 1965 anti-communist purge. The scare tactics were reminiscent of those regularly used by Suharto’s New Order regime during its 32-year rule. In a moment of extraordinary irony, this has happened under a president championed by civil societies around the world because he was thought to be the least likely candidate to instigate a return to Suhartoism.

 

So the question now is whether we were all reading the wrong libretto about President Joko Widodo. Was he in any way more sympathetic to the old ways? Did we simply conclude he was progressive because his rival, Prabowo Subianto, seemed so Suhartoist that his challenger became his antithesis by default?

Prabowo’s camp certainly reeked of New Order vestiges. Suharto’s family, often dubbed the Cendana Clan after the name of the street where they reside, seemed to endorse Prabowo’s presidential bid. Suharto’s second daughter and former wife of Prabowo, Siti Hediati Hariyadi, better known as Titiek, unequivocally campaigned for her ex-husband and even announced that Prabowo had her family’s blessings.

Prabowo’s presidential candidacy also had the ominous prelude of seeing Golkar, the political party Suharto founded, harp on the tune of how all things had been better in the good ol' days. So when the Golkar Party and the United Development Party (PPP), another Suharto-era party, converged to support Prabowo, the crowd did resemble a conclave of New Order stalwarts, uniting the likes of Aburizal Bakrie, Fadel Muhammad and Titiek Suharto.

The most damning of all for Prabowo was undoubtedly his unsavory past as a military commander suspected of involvement in gross human rights abuses: including the kidnapping of democracy activists, the targeting of civilians during Indonesia's occupation of what is now Timor Leste and his possible role in engineering the deadly 1998 riots in Jakarta.

It is possible that the preponderance of New Order mementos within Prabowo’s Red and White Coalition (KMP) caused us to overlook the same thing in Jokowi, as the president is affectionately known, and his own Awesome Indonesia Coalition (KIH). His running mate, now Vice President Jusuf Kalla, came into prominence during Suharto’s reign. Even his political backers Megawati Soekarnoputri, Surya Paloh and notably Wiranto honed their political skills under the political settings crafted by Suharto. 

The longevity of his rule and the lack of any credible opposition meant that Suharto had a free hand in re-structuring the nation’s psyche and mentality to suit his needs. Ever the keen opportunist, Suharto from the start successfully spurred the powerful enemies of the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) into action.

Although PKI was then, at least on paper, the second-largest political party in Indonesia after the Indonesian National Party (PNI) with membership numbering in millions, it was more of a paper tiger in real terms. This explained its quick downfall in the subsequent confrontation with the religious nationalists, political Islamists and the right-wing forces. The PKI’s own belligerence when it enjoyed the favor of the country's first president, Sukarno, had earned it bitter enemies. Its forced land redistribution scheme, for instance, was often popularly and bloodily resisted by many landowners in rural areas. 

Phobia of communism (often equated with atheism by Suharto’s regime), the subjugation of human rights in favor of obedience to the state, and paternalism are some of the most important features of the New Order era. It created an illusion of stability and certainty for most Indonesians, a welcome respite from the turbulent years of Sukarno’s early 1960s. With the beginning of industrialization and foreign capital inflow, Suharto’s Indonesia reached its golden decade in the 1980s.

What many of us probably forget is that Jokowi spent much of his adult life in this golden decade. He graduated from university in 1985 and married the following year. Born in 1961, he was too young to have any memory from the Sukarno years. So, Jokowi was essentially born, bred and educated during the Suharto era. Unlike his predecessor Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who was fast rising through the military ranks in those days, Jokowi was also largely uninformed about the inner workings of the regime.

For most Indonesians of his generation, especially those unacquainted with the many dark sides of Suharto's rule, there is a nostalgic feeling about the lost era of orderly, safe and quiet public life.

Take away the 1965 communist purge, the 1974 Malari incident, the atrocities in Timor Leste, Aceh and Papua, the extrajudicial killings of civilians and the shackled press, Suharto’s Indonesia did seem shipshape compared to the pandemonium that followed Reformasi. In foreign policy, Indonesia also enjoyed greater regional and international eminence through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and the Non-Aligned Movement, and also an anti-communist bulwark during the Cold War.

Is it possible that our current president shares this nostalgia for Suharto’s Indonesia? Or does he, like so many Indonesians of his generation, subconsciously carry the wieldy New Order baggage of entrenched prejudices and distorted history?

Perhaps these questions can only be answered to satisfaction decades from now. However, Jokowi did make pledges to strengthen democracy during his campaign. Whether it was out of conviction or ruse, we still await his action to disabuse us of our worst fears.      

Johannes Nugroho is a writer from Surabaya.

 

 

A First: Japanese and US Navies Hold Exercise in South China Sea

Following Malabar 2015, a Japanese destroyer and a U.S. carrier are exercising together in the South China Sea.

The Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) and the U.S. Navy are holding a joint naval exercise in the South China Sea, the Yomiuri Shimbun reports. The exercise marks the first bilateral U.S.-Japan exercise in the area. The drill comes days after the United States staged its first freedom of navigation operation within 12 nautical miles of a Chinese artificial island in the Spratly Islands. The Japanese Defense Ministry has told the Yomiuri that the ongoing South China Sea drill between the two allied navies is “an ordinary drill and unrelated to the U.S. Navy’s patrolling activities there.” The exercise is reportedly not taking place near the Spratly Islands.

Per the Yomiuri, the JS Fuyuzuki, an Akizuki-class destroyer, is currently conducting drills of an unspecified nature in the South China Sea with the USS Theodore Roosevelt, a Nimitz-class super-carrier. Both the Fuyuzuki and the Theodore Roosevelt participated in the recently concluded Malabar 2015 exercise – a trilateral naval exercise with India. Malabar 2015 concluded on October 19, 2015.

The Theodore Roosevelt docked in Singapore on October 24, three days before the scheduled U.S. freedom of navigation operation. The drills in the South China Sea between the U.S. Navy and the MSDF began on Wednesday and will “continue for several days” according to the Yomiuri. The report adds that the exercise will focus on the transportation of crew members and communication training exercises.

According to the Mainichi, the Fuyuzuki and the USS Theodore Roosevelt will sail “to waters just north of Borneo in the South China Sea.” The MSDF ship is expected to head back to Japan on November 10, meaning that this U.S.-Japan exercise will effectively last for nearly two weeks.

Japan’s involvement in the South China Sea has been limited to date. Most recently, in August, the MSDF participated in a humanitarian drill with the U.S. and Philippines off Subic Bay, the site of a former U.S. naval base. The Philippines, along with Japan, is a U.S. ally. As I noted at the time, the exercise demonstrated growing trilateral convergence between the three countries. Earlier, in June, Japan’s MSDF flew a P3-C Orion surveillance aircraft past Reed Bank in the South China Sea. Reed Bank is claimed by both China and the Philippines. During that operation, the MSDF aircraft carried three Philippines crew members.

Critically, the ongoing exercise in the South China Sea between the Japanese and U.S. navies is not a freedom of navigation operation. The United States may consider inviting Japan to participate in freedom of navigation and overflight assertion activities in the South China Sea, but, as things stand, Japan has good reasons to avoid a regular military presence in the South China Sea. Despite reservations, Japanese officials have said that they would consider joint patrols in the South China Sea with the United States.  By Ankit Panda for The Diplomat

 

Appeasement will only encourage China in the South China Sea

                                         Chinese fishing boats sail in the South China Sea

World attention has again focused on our region of the globe, with the American navy asserting its "freedom of navigation" near Chinese-constructed artificial islands in the so-called South China Sea.

In less than 80 days, in the midst of threats from China, Taiwan's voters will vote for their president and legislature. Polls suggest the opposition will win, thus giving Taiwan its third transition of power from opposition to government in the six presidential elections since democratisation.

The tensions in Asia today have only one cause: China. On the basis of false "history", China claims the South China Sea, the East China Sea and Taiwan. Yet China has no historical claims to the South and East China seas.

Historically, south-east Asian states conducted the great trade in the South China Sea. China had almost no role. Furthermore, geographically, the contested areas are close to Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei and the Philippines, while they are more than 1000 kilometres south of China. China's claims for sovereignty in these areas have no historical basis and its constructing of "islands" on submerged reefs only demonstrates China's expansionism.

Similarly, in the East China Sea, China's claims to the Senkaku Islands (which China calls the Diaoyutai) have no historical foundation. The People's Daily of January 8, 1953, stated that the "Senkaku" Islands belonged to the Ryukyu Archipelago, and a World Atlas published in China in 1958 showed that these islands belong to Japan.

China's claims that Taiwan belongs to it also have no historical basis. Mao Zedong, in his famous 1936 interview with Edgar Snow, stated that Taiwan should be independent. Only in 1942 did the Chinese Nationalist Party (the Kuomintang) and the Chinese Communist Party separately claim that Taiwan was Chinese.

In Taiwan's history, a Han Chinese regime based in China has only controlled Taiwan for four years, from 1945 to 1949. These four years were perhaps the saddest in all of Taiwan's history because Chiang Kai-shek's government killed tens of thousands of Taiwanese in the infamous 2.28 (February 28, 1947) massacres.

The dictatorship of Chiang Kai-shek and his son and successor, Chiang Ching-kuo, ruled Taiwan from 1945 until the latter's death in early 1988. Their rule was a Chinese colonial project that privileged Chinese who had come with Chiang Kai-shek and systematically discriminated against native Taiwanese.

Only with the accession of Lee Teng-hui to the presidency after the death of Chiang Ching-kuo in 1988 could Taiwan begin its democratisation process. Now Taiwan, a country with a population the size of Australia, has become a democratic middle power.

The so-called "one China" policy of many countries including the United States and Australia is a relic of the old Chiang Kai-shek/Chiang Ching-kuo dictatorship, which pushed a "one China" policy without consulting Taiwan's population.

All the major Western democracies, as well as Japan and India, now have substantial if unofficial diplomatic offices in Taiwan. And, although these nations do not publicise the point, all have de facto "One China, one Taiwan" policies.

The arguments of people such as Age columnist Hugh White are dangerous. They ignore the cause of tension in Asia and say we have to be careful about becoming involved in a war. History has taught us that "appeasement" of such expansionist powers as China does not stop war. Rather, it only temporarily postpones armed conflict and ultimately leads to a much larger war later.

Appeasement of China only enhances Chinese perceptions that the US is a toothless paper tiger. It creates a sense among China's generals and political leaders that they can pursue expansionist policies without international protest.

The pretence that Taiwan's vote for its own president and legislature can lead to war is false. Both main candidates, Tsai Ing-wen and Eric Chu, want to maintain the status quo – that Taiwan is de facto an independent state but that it will not announce this. Australians would be appalled if we were told by a foreign power that voting for either Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten would lead to war and that we should vote accordingly.

We must be clear that China is the only country threatening anyone else in Asia. The close talks between leaders of such countries as the US, Japan, India and Australia demonstrate that Asia's democratic countries have become aware of the risks.

In classical balance-of-power theory, the rise of one expansionist power creates a coalition among other powers. China's expansionist actions have already created a substantial democratic coalition in Asia prepared to prevent China from starting a major war.

Bruce Jacobs is emeritus professor of Asian Languages and Studies at Monash University. Photo: AP

The Caliph at the gates of Vienna

                                                Russian Airstrikes in Syria against ISIS

History has a jolly habit of repeating itself as surrealist farce. Is it 1683 all over again, with the Ottoman Empire laying siege to Vienna just to be defeated by the “infidels” at the last minute?

No; it’s 2015 and a Caliph simulacrum – Ibrahim, a.k.a. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi — has prompted a gaggle of world powers, lesser powers and assorted minions to converge to Vienna to discuss how to defeat him.

                                                             Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

Westphalians, we got a problem. None of this makes any sense if Iran is not at the table discussing a solution for the Syrian tragedy. Moscow knew it from the start. Washington — reluctantly — had to admit the obvious. But the problem was never Iran. The problem is the ideological matrix of goons who metastasize into Caliphs: Saudi Arabia.

Back — inevitably — to surrealism. Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir stated, “The view of our partners … was that we should test the intentions of the Iranians and the Russians in arriving at a political solution in Syria, which we all prefer.”

Translation: “Our partners” means “His Masters’ Voice,” Washington; and the beheading-addicted oil hacienda does not “prefer” a political solution; they want regime change and a House of Saud satrapy.

Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, the EU, France and even Qatar — whose mini-emir wanted to launch his own military campaign for regime change before someone told him to shut up — are keeping company to Iran in Vienna, alongside the US, Russia, Turkey and the House of Saud.

Talk about parallel lives. One thing is a polite altercation inside a gilded Vienna palace. The shifting military sands across a Sykes-Picot-in-shambles “Syraq” tell a very different story.

Beware the new Global Jihad

The ideal solution is tempting; Russia dispatches the Spetsnaz and some extra commandos; beheads the ISIS/ISIL/Daesh goons from a C4i point of view; surrounds them; and wipes them out.

Yet it won’t happen, as long as Sultan Erdogan in Turkey, petrodollar GCC minions and the CIA persist to “support” and/or weaponize assorted Salafi-jihadi goons, “moderate” or otherwise.

The fake “Caliphate” will be a very tough nut to crack because they don’t – and won’t – care about their own mounting casualties. The “4+1” alliance – Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq plus Hezbollah – already knows it, and has already experienced trouble in their ranks.

Hezbollah took casualties. So did Iran’s Quds Force – as in reliable mid-level commanders. Iran has around 1,500 fighters on the ground – many of them Afghans – on the “4+1” side. On the opposite side we have the House of Saud funneling a lot of cash and TOW anti-tank missiles to the Army of Conquest, which is nothing but an al-Qaeda-led coalition of the willing displaying relatively overlapping agendas (first regime change, then Caliphate or Muslim Brotherhood reign).

There’s no evidence – yet – that ISIS/ISIL/Daesh has been depleted of the bulk of their shoulder-fired anti-aircraft plus anti-tank guided missiles.

So while Vienna talks, what is ISIS/ISIL/Daesh really up to?

They are about to choose between two different strategies.

1. They dig in in Raqqa – the former capital of the Abbasid Caliphate, before Baghdad – waiting for a Mother of All Battles. After all they can’t afford to lose it, as Raqqa, geostrategically, is the ultimate crossroads in Syria. Former Ba’athist military and a cluster of Arab nationalists are lobbying for this strategy.

2. Forget about digging in. The best is to expand the frontline, into the deeper desert, to the max. This means no clusters of targets available to the Russian Air Force, with the added benefit of the “4+1” – as in the Syrian Arab Army (SAA)/Iran/Hezbollah ground units supported by the Russian Air Force — overextending their lines of communication/supply and being faced with extra logistical problems. Hardcore Turks, Chechens, Uyghurs and Uzbeks are lobbying for this strategy.

Arguably the ISIS/ISIL/Daesh command is leaning towards option 2 – because of the Jihad Inc. component. At least 2,000 fake “Caliphate” goons – most of them from Chechnya, Turkey, Central Asia and Xinjiang – were killed in Kobani, which, unlike Raqqa, had no strategic value. The Jihad Inc. gang now wants to expand all the way to Central Asia, Xinjiang, Russia and, if they manage to find an opening, Europe and the US.

Option 2 also carries the added benefit, for fighting purposes, of extra support for “moderate jihadis” (not “rebels”), which means more interaction with Ahrar al-Sham, Liwa al-Tawhid, a few Army of Conquest factions, the Islamic Front and a bunch of Turkmen Salafi groups. None of these, by the way, are “moderate rebels”.

All these outfits would perfect mesh into an ISIS/ISIL/Daesh “expanding frontline” strategy, defended, among others, by one Muslim Shishani, Chechen commander of the Jund al-Sham, which is currently fighting around Latakia.

Shishani, significantly, told al-Jazeera Turk, “Fronts [such] as Raqqa and Aleppo will have no significance in a ground war against the Russians. The real war will be on the Tartus-Latakia front line. Jihad must be moved to that area.”

So imagine all of these outfits coalescing on an internal jihad plus global jihad platform, and still flush with cash. It’s no secret that Russian intel is alarmed by the high number of Chechens in the fake “Caliphate” ranks, not to mention Chinese intel regarding the Uyghurs. These may find very hard to return to Xinjiang; but the Chechens will be back in the Caucasus. That’s the famous “Aleppo is 900 km away from Grozny” syndrome.

To add to the royal mess, FSB director Alexander Bortnikov has already warned about a concentration of Taliban – many of whom pledged allegiance to the fake “Caliphate” — at Afghanistan’s northern borders with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. For Putin and the Russian intel apparatus, the situation in Afghanistan is “close to critical”. A jihad spillover across Central Asia is all but certain.

The bottom line, thus, is stark. Move over, al-Qaeda; ISIS/ISIL/Daesh is using the “4+1” offensive to forge its identity as the leader of a Global Jihad. Saudi imams anyway have already declared jihad against Russia. And the decrepit Al-Azhar in Cairo is about to do the same thing.

Check the Iranian game

There’s no evidence the Obama administration is about to admit all “moderate rebels” are, after all, jihadis. The ISIS/ISIL/Daesh command, anyway, is waiting; were that to happen – as in Washington sharing Moscow’s analysis – all outfits will switch to Global Jihad mode, led by the fake “Caliphate.”

It’s already murky enough as it stands. The mix of Syrian/Iranian ground intel plus the Russian air campaign have to make sure not only that ISIS/ISIL/Daesh does not have the hardware nor the manpower to defend Raqqa; they also need to cut off all their communication/supply lines with those jihadis who are fighting the “4+1” in western Syria.

Even under attack by the Russian Air Force, which forced a large number of goons and their families to flee Syria for the Western Iraq desert, ISIS/ISIL/Daesh managed to make progress in southern Aleppo, infiltrating al-Safira, and keeping control of at least 10 checkpoints along the crucial supply line that runs from Hama, through Salamiyeh, Ithriyah and Khanaser, all the way to Aleppo. The SAA simply cannot afford to lose this corridor; now that’s priority number one. Hundreds of thousands of Aleppo civilians, meanwhile, are trying to survive as de facto hostages.

It’s crucial to check out the Iranian game on the ground. The best source so far has been the deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Brig. Gen. Husayn Salami, who talked extensively to the Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 2.

Salami – that’s the IRGC speaking – frames Syria as the “focal point of strategic efforts made by an international coalition” to implement a “destructive political scheme in the Islamic world.” By “international coalition” he means NATO plus the Saudis. Iran’s role is “guaranteeing the political, psychological, economic and military stability of the Syrian system.”

He frames Iran’s role on four levels. “On a strategic level, we support the Syrian government, nation and army politically and psychologically. As advisors, we transfer our war experiences to top commanders in the Syrian army. Actually, we are helping them modernize and rebuild the structure of the Syrian army … When it comes to the operational level, we are helping brigade commanders for example … This is why a number of our commanders are there and are helping in planning and devising operational strategies.” Iran also helps at a tactical and technical (logistic) level.

And here’s something absolutely key – as well as anathema for the House of Saud; “Our national security is intertwined with the security of important parts of the Islamic world, the national security of Syria. This is the main philosophy behind our presence [in Syria].” The nuance that US Think Tankland is incapable of spotting is this doesn’t have anything to do with keeping Assad in power forever, as Iranian diplomats are now saying on the record.

Salami also stressed Russia went into Syria because otherwise it would have to fight jihad at home (that’s exactly what the Chechens at ISIS/ISIL/Daesh want). Putin’s Syria strategy, by the way, has been fully supported by the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Ali Larijani, who was a key guest at the Valdai summit last week.

I’m the Caliph; hear me roar

Faced with the Russian/Iranian strategy, what is the Empire of Chaos to do?

Murk the already murky sands, what else? That sorry lot that passes for Obama’s “senior national security advisers” has recommended positioning US Special Forces closer to ISIS/ISIL/Daesh in Syria.

This special “guidance” is supposed to help the coalition known as Democratic Forces of Syria – which is led by the YPG Kurds – to take Raqqa. But that does not necessarily mean US Special Forces will be fighting alongside the “4+1” towards the same objective. After all, we’re always thrown back deep into Geopolitics Surrealistan – where the US-led Coalition of the Dodgy Opportunists (CDO) totally ignores what the “4+1” are doing. And don’t forget intra-coalition hatred — as in Ankara abhorring the US insistence on working with Syrian Kurds.

As for Iraq, the Obama administration and the Pentagon now barely qualify as the butt end of running jokes. Sunnis in Anbar province are furious that the mightiest satellite surveillance system in history simply failed to register ISIS/ISIL/Daesh’s advances, from Tikrit to Ramadi and environs.

To add a final insult to (repeated) injuries – as in the “4+1” intel center in Baghdad, excluding the US, plus the authorization for Russia to bomb fake “Caliphate” convoys trying to cross from the Syrian desert – Baghdad and the EU have just agreed to set up yet another intel center to exchange data on ISIS/ISIL/Daesh. The bottom line is the Obama administration is absolutely terrified that the EU is inclined to support the Russian campaign – increasingly regarding the CDO for what it is; a joke.

The near future offers even more dangerous surrealist instances; think of the Obama administration helping Shi’ite militias to take Mosul in Iraq back from ISIS/ISIL/Daesh, and at the same time helping Kurds in Syria to take back Raqqa, an Arab city. All hell is bound to break loose between Sunnis across “Syraq” and Americans – and ISIS/ISIL/Daesh will mightily profit from it.

As it stands, there’s not going to be a frontal attack on Aleppo by the SAA and Iran/Hezbollah, covered by the Russian Air Force; instead, the “4+1” strategy will be to disrupt to the max the logistical supply routes to all Salafi-jihadi outfits, which implies trying to cut off the flux of cash and weapons smuggled via Turkey.

But once again; what about the Empire of Chaos?

The Obama administration is essentially fighting — sort of — ISIS/ISIL/Daesh in Iraq, where Washington lost a multi-trillion dollar war. Team Obama never bothered to fight the fake “Caliphate” in Syria — because they were contributing to the “Assad must go” agenda.

Sultan Erdogan – with Ankara at the table in Vienna – is still allowed to have a free-for-all border out of which ISIS/ISIL/Daesh profits handsomely. And the paranoid, Shi’ite-hating House of Saud – with Riyadh at the table in Vienna – is still allowed to shower all manner of Salafi-jihadi goons with all manner of weapons. This is what passes for Obama’s policy in Syria, as the Caliph’s roaring laughter can be heard all the way to Vienna. By Pepe Escobar

 

 

 

 

Castration for child rapists in India, oh no!

Now, castration for those who rape children. Sounds menacingly medieval.

Justice N. Kirubakaran of the Madras High Court in India said those men who molested or raped children must be castrated. This should be in addition to their prison terms. Kirubakaran’s suggestion came while he was dismissing a petition filed by a British national charged with sodomising a teenage boy.

The Briton had sought to quash proceedings against him in a lower court.

“Traditional laws are not stringent enough to yield any desired positive result. Suggestion of castration looks barbaric, but barbaric crimes should definitely attract barbaric model of punishment. Many may not agree with this. Still, everyone needs to understand the stark reality in society and appreciate the punishment suggested,” Kirubakaran said, according to a report in The Times of India.

While the rate of conviction for sexual offences against children was just 2.4%, crimes against them had risen by 400% between 2008 and 2014, he said.

Kirubakaran felt castration would lead to magical results, check child abuse and, eventually, this horrific evil will disappear. At least from India, if one may add.

The judge expected protests from human rights activists. But, of course, he warned them: “Those activists should first exhibit sympathy and support for the victims of such crimes by visiting and consoling them in the hour of crisis, instead of having misplaced sympathy for the perpetrators. They must remember that ‘human rights’ is not a term restricted to, and reserved only for offenders.”

Understandably, there was a hue and cry over the judge’s view.

A senior advocate of the court, Nalini Chidambaram, said in no uncertain terms that castration would not help check child rape. She wondered how such a punishment could even be thought of when there is no provision for it in the Indian Penal Code.

Author Meena Kandasamy averred that the fear of castration could force an abuser to kill his victim so as not to leave any trace of his misdemeanor.

In fact, this has often been the case with adult rapes where perpetrators, fearing punishment, murder the women they rape.

On the other side of the fence, one has come across men who have been trapped by women for a variety of reasons like scorn, humiliation, disappointment and so on.  Here the men are but innocent victims.

Similarly, it is possible that a man may be accused of child molestation when he is entirely guiltless.

Sometimes, a child may just imagine that something horrific is happening to it. I saw this in Danish director Thomas Vinterberg’s brilliant 2012 film called The Hunt.

The story is set in a small Danish village around Christmas, and follows a teacher who becomes a target of mass hysteria after being wrongly charged with sexually abusing a child in his kindergarten class.

Lucas, played by Mads Mikkelsen, is a member of a close-knit deer-hunting community. He is divorced and is struggling to have a relationship going with his teenage son, who lives with his mother.

But Lucas is loved by the kindergarten children he teaches, and this includes Lara, his best friend, Theo’s daughter.

One day, Lara, drawing on memory of a pornographic picture her older brother showed her, makes a comment which seems to suggest that Lucas had indecently exposed himself to her. Despite Lara’s later denials, Lucas is seen as a villain by his community. His son is publicly ostracised and friendship with Theo breaks.

However, the grave misunderstanding is cleared after several weeks, and Lucas is back at school.  But a year later, during a hunting expedition, someone shoots at Lucas, but misses him. After a moment, Lucas finds nobody there. Was the shooter real? Or was Lucas imagining?

In this closing scene of The Hunt, we are made aware that some incidents may be just a figment of one’s imagination. Laura’s was.

So it is quite possible for a child to imagine rape, given the kind of programs it watches these days on television. There is, then, a real danger of a man being falsely implicated.

Be that as it may, in any case, it goes without saying that castration is no way for a modern society to deal with a child rapist. If such a law were to be included in India’s Penal Code, this will only drag us back to the dark ages when an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth were the norm.

But India, calling itself a modern nation, a modern democracy, cannot afford to think on the lines of castrating a man. Much in the same way that capital punishment has seldom deterred capital crime, castration will not stop a child rapist in his tracks.

Gautaman Bhaskaran is an author, commentator and movie critic, who has worked with The Statesman in Kolkata and The Hindu in Chennai for 35 years. He now writes for the Hindustan Times, the Gulf Times and The Seoul Times.