Welcome To The New Age Of The Strongman
In the
latest political lurch to the right, Jair Bolsonaro, self-confessed defender of
the military dictatorship Brazil suffered under from 1964 to 1985, is expected
to win the country’s presidential elections this month. Opinion polls show Bolsonaro, who racked up 46% of the vote in the first round,
maintaining a healthy 18 percent lead over his leftist rival, Fernando Haddad,
just days ahead of the second-round vote on 28 October.
Despite his openly racist, homophobic, and misogynist views, Bolsonaro’s
strategy of standing on an anti-establishment ticket has helped him attract
voters who are frustrated by the political corruption
and violent crime which has plagued Brazil for decades.
And, while Bolsonaro’s rise to prominence can be largely attributed to
the series of economic, social and political crises that have dogged Brazil in
recent years, it also fits into a global trend that has legitimized the rule of
so-called
‘strongman’ figures such as the Philippines’ President Rodrigo
Duterte and Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán. So, why are despots and dictators of
every political persuasion enjoying a renaissance?
Bolsonaro’s
success reflects the global rise of populism
For Bolsonaro supporters, the appeal lies in his populist roots.
Emerging from the military rank-and-file to serve in congress after Brazil’s
twenty years of dictatorship, Bolsonaro has never attempted to hide his radical
right-wing views – from his claim
that he would rather his son die in a car accident than be gay to his belief
that Afro-Brazilians are “no use, even to procreate.” His willingness to voice
his opinions, no matter how outrageous and offensive, and his ability to
leverage the nascent nationalism of his citizens echoes that of other bombastic
leaders like Donald Trump.
Bolsonaro’s success can’t be seen in isolation: the mixture of overt
bigotry and vows to crack down on crime and corruption
that he has carefully honed is resonating with the Brazilian electorate, as it
is increasingly resonating in a diverse swath of nations around the world. Over
the last two decades, populist parties – often dangling the prospect of a
return to prosperity– have enjoyed a staggering surge in support.
A
reaction to progressivism and economic shocks
One of the most worrying aspects of the new strongman phenomenon is its
near-universal spread, across continents and the political spectrum. In China,
Xi Jinping has used his anti-corruption
campaign to consolidate his own power by loosening
presidential term limits, while Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has just won another
term as prime minister by promising
to protect the country’s ‘national’ values in the face of liberalism and the
perceived threat from unchecked migration.
Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić has cast himself as a reformer
while his praise
of accused war criminal Milosevic betrays the nationalist roots he has never
fully cast off. But populism isn’t only the flavor-of-the-month in Europe’s
post-communist states; it’s also gaining a foothold in affluent societies such
as Sweden and Denmark, where social tolerance and liberal attitudes are deeply
ingrained.
As Western societies have become more liberal on
numerous social issues, those who are entrenched in what they call “traditional
values” have felt threatened, making them more likely to turn to strongman
leaders who promise to restore national pride and old-fashioned ideals.
Operating
above the law
This increased public support in turn emboldens authoritarian leaders,
persuading them of their own invincibility— a dangerous cocktail which often
leads to egregious human rights
infractions and worse. The grisly killing of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal
Khashoggi has underscored crown prince Mohammed bin Salman’s determination
to wield power at all costs. Attempts by the Saudi authorities to distance
themselves from Khashoggi’s murder, initially by denying the journalist’s death
and later by suggesting it was the consequence of a brawl gone wrong, have only
served to further illustrate the administration’s contempt for international
law.
In a similarly macabre vein, President Rodrigo Duterte recently admitted
his role in authorizing extrajudicial killings as part of his controversial war
on drugs
in the Philippines. Duterte has employed the most draconian crime-fighting
measures, even claiming that he personally killed
three men, while dismissing the advancement of human rights
and democracy as a tool of modern imperialism. It’s a toxic return to
illiberal principles which is stifling progress in what was once
a prosperous region.
Digging
in for the long term
Even autocrats from the past are haunting their countries anew.
93-year-old Mahathir Mohamad, who ruled Malaysia with an iron fist from 1981 to
2003, pulled off a surprising victory this spring to become prime minister
again. Mahathir has worked to shake off the shadows of his first premiership,
which was characterized
by media censorship, nationalist policies, and interference in the
judiciary—most notably when Mahathir oversaw
a purge of the Supreme Court which left lasting scars on Malaysia’s judicial
system, and when he sacked
his deputy and had him imprisoned on trumped-up sodomy charges. Despite
campaigning as an unlikely reformer, thus far Mahathir’s new stint as PM – from
his casual anti-Semitism
to his obsessive persecution
of his predecessor Najib Razak – seems uncomfortably similar to his previous
regime.
In Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega is also presiding over his second
administration, marked by a brutal subjugation of protestors and the free
press. Once the poster-boy of the Sandinista rebels, he has since morphed into
the very kind of fascist dictator he helped to overthrow. Ortega has vowed
to remain in office until scheduled elections in 2021, unleashing
“Operation Clean Up”—a brutal campaign by squadrons of masked gunmen to beat
and sexually assault the hundreds of thousands of protestors calling for him to
step down.
Mahathir and Ortega’s political resurrections show that not only are
countries choosing to elect new authoritarian candidates like Bolsonaro,
they’re also returning to those who symbolized repression and tyranny in the 1980s.
With the strongman ascendant, it’s ordinary people who are likely to be crushed
underfoot – a development which should profoundly concern the entirety of the
free world.
By Rafael Salazar
The opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints expressed by the authors are
theirs alone and don’t reflect the official position of Geopoliticalmonitor.com or
any other institution.
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