A look at the status of a much-anticipated initiative between Indonesia,
Malaysia, and the Philippines.
Last
year, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines reached an agreement on limited
coordinated trilateral patrols following a meeting in Bali. Though the three
sides have since made more progress than skeptics had initially predicted, we
have still yet to witness the official launching of these patrols, with reports
that they will now occur sometime in the next few weeks.
The
strategic significance of these trilateral patrols, if realized and sustained,
is clear. As I have pointed out before, the Sulu Sea – or, more specifically,
the one million square kilometer tri-border area in the Sulu-Sulawesi Seas
between the southern Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia – has long been a hub
for transnational organized crime and terrorist threats (See: “Confronting Threats in the
Sulu-Sulawesi Seas: Opportunities and Challenges”). Greater
coordination between the three Southeast Asian states to resolve these
nettlesome problems offers hope for their mitigation.
That
said, close observers never had any illusions about how difficult it would be
to actually get these patrols going (See: “The Other Sea That Dominated the
2016 Shangri-La Dialogue”). As I wrote as the initiative was taking
off, there are a range of challenges – from political ones like lingering
disputes between these countries to more operational ones such as agreeing on
things like standard operating procedures and necessary supporting
infrastructure. Little surprise, then, that the trilateral patrols have taken
some time to get up and running.
As for
the launch date itself, officials had initially indicated that they would try
to finalize something for April or May, though specifics have been few and far
in between. In March, Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said that
the three countries had agreed to a joint air and maritime patrols of an area
to protect commercial vessels passing through, and that a joint patrol of the
three nations in that area would be inaugurated “sometime in April or May.” And
in early April, Malaysian officials had confirmed that the launch would occur
at the Sandakan Naval Base in the eastern Malaysian state of Sabah, with
reporters being invited to witness the event.
Eventually,
that launch ceremony did not take place. Malaysian Defense Minister
Hishammuddin Hussein publicly said that the launch was to be moved to a later
date because Lorenzana was not able to join his Indonesian and Malaysian
counterparts because he was accompanying Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte
to a trip to the Middle East.
Last
week, Hishammuddin told reporters at the 83rd Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN)
anniversary at the Sepanggar naval base that the three defense ministers would
meet to have a launch in Bongao in the southern Philippines next month. He also
added that subsequent, separate launches were planned in Malaysia and Indonesia
as well that would also be attended by the three ministers.
That
would make sense. In addition to accommodating the desires of all sides, it
would also recognize the trilateral nature of the initiative and also be in
line with its structure, which so far seems to be rooted in naval bases in each
of the three countries – Bongao in the southern Philippines; Sandakan in
eastern Malaysia; and Tarakan in North Kalimantan in Indonesia.
Hishammuddin
did not reveal a specific launch date for the trilateral patrols, which, if it
occurs in May, would still fall within the rough timeline Lorenzana had
provided earlier. But the way things are shaping up, it will not be long before
they actually take off, despite the delays we have witnessed so far.
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