Six months have already
gone by of President Rodrigo Duterte’s administration. The Southeast Asian
region is left with questions as to what the future might hold when the
Philippines takes the rotating chairmanship of ASEAN in 2017. Since President
Duterte took office on June 30 of this year, he has issued, and his aides have
retracted, several foreign policy pronouncements concerning the big powers in
the region – China and the United States — that could impact on ASEAN.
His predecessor President Benigno
Aquino III’s foreign policy approach was outspoken in its criticism of China,
and the Aquino administration won a case against China that it filed with an
international arbitral panel to defend Philippine entitlements in the South
China Sea. President Duterte, on the other hand, appeared to take a whole
U-turn by re-establishing amicable ties with China and distancing itself from
the US, in order to pursue an “independent foreign policy”. It was during his
visit to Beijing last October 18 to 21, that he announced the Philippines’ “separation” from the US in both military
and economic terms. He also claimed that ‘US has lost’ and that the Philippines
is now “realigning” with China.
ASEAN States Realigning
Prior to Duterte’s visit to China,
Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc had also visited Beijing in
September in what could be seen as an effort to mend ties with Beijing after
the arbitral tribunal’s July ruling of China’s nine-dash line as illegal.
Shortly after Duterte, Malaysian
Prime Minister Najib Razak also went to China on a 7-day official visit to
strengthen ties, score a defense deal, and sign more economic agreements.
Najib’s visit seemed to have been prompted by a massive corruption scandal
which implicated him, and which resulted in the US Justice Department seizing
more than $1 billion in U.S. assets purchased by Najib’s relatives and
associates. Beyond this, Malaysia continues to explore what China has to offer
as a rising, if not already risen, power. In his own meetings with China,
Duterte received a whopping $24 billion in investment and loan pledges,
while Najib signed business MOUs worth RM 143.64 billion (about $32 billion).
Vietnam, the Philippines, and
Malaysia are embroiled in a territorial dispute with China in the South China
Sea. With the spate of visits, we could be seeing a geostrategic realignment of
these ASEAN countries. Consequently, such actions may lead to a major shift in
ASEAN’s big power relations from here onwards.
Philippine Role in ASEAN
During the Aquino administration,
the Philippines had been the frontliner of all ASEAN claimant countries in the
South China Sea against China. It was the most vocal in criticizing China for
its actions, and took the boldest step ever of filing the arbitration case in
2013. The Philippines has been one of the long-standing and main security
allies of the US in Southeast Asia, leading some to argue that despite being a
weak state, Washington’s backing US provided Manila with more confidence to
challenge Beijing. This has allowed other concerned ASEAN countries to
‘free-ride’ on the Philippines and ‘swim with the current’ in order to minimize
their own risks while keeping China from being more aggressive and assertive in
the South China Sea amidst its growing economic and military power.
In ASEAN, the Philippines was also
the main member-state campaigning for the regional organization to unite and
call out China for actions affecting ASEAN claimants. Should the Philippines
under Duterte shift Philippine foreign policy and begin cozying up to China, no
one will fill its role as ASEAN’s most assertive claimant and China critic. As
a result, it will be harder for other ASEAN countries to mount an effective
challenge against China and in turn, those countries that were formerly
critical of China would also recalibrate their own foreign policies to
accommodate the regional power.
As Prashanth Parameswaran puts it, “If the
Philippines suddenly adopts a much softer line on China and the South China Sea,
it could see other Southeast Asian states also adopt a softer line, either
because this is in line with their own traditional preference to downplay the
issue or because they find it diplomatically difficult to get ahead of ASEAN’s
most-forward-leaning claimant.”
2017 chairmanship of ASEAN will
prove to be challenging as it will put the Philippines in a position where it
could steer the whole ASEAN on various issues affecting the region, including
the South China Sea disputes and big power dynamics in Southeast Asia.
Big Power Relations
The Philippines’ relationship with
the US has seen much confusion since Duterte took over. Washington is a
long-time ally of the country and arguably the top security partner of many
states in the Southeast Asian region. The US has been helping the Philippines
boost its military capability through various efforts such as capacity-building
programs, joint exercises, and weapons training. Moreover, it has been a major
provider of arms to the Philippines. However, criticisms by the Obama
government’s officials on his War on Drugs provoked Duterte to threaten to abrogate security agreements and to kick US troops out of the Philippines.
More recently, Donald Trump’s win in
the recently-concluded US presidential elections may again have changed the
tides. Duterte was reportedly the first among world leaders to have
congratulated Trump. In early December, a seven-minute phone call took place
between the two which was described by an aide as ‘very engaging.’ The two leaders invited
each other to visit their countries.
Could Philippines-US relations get
back on track following Trump’s election? The return to the normal state of
relations could be a blow to Beijing if it hopes to steer the Philippines and
the rest of ASEAN away from American influence. Trump’s election further adds
to the uncertainty of the future.
In 2017, the world may be seeing a
new phase of power relations as China will continue to court countries through
its economic might and tempting offers like the Belt and Road Initiative and
the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The Philippines under Duterte could
cast its lot with China, or it could continue to play a crucial role in US
rebalance to Asia. More likely, it will hedge between the two big powers
inasmuch as Duterte is more open to dealing with the US under Trump. US foreign
policy under Trump, however, is yet to unfold as he only takes the helm of the
US government in January 2017.
Where the Southeast Asian region is
headed in relation to the big powers is still unknown, but major developments in
early 2017 will likely give us a glimpse of the interesting times ahead.
No comments:
Post a Comment