The
secretive communist government of Laos, a country with a population of less
than 7 million, rarely causes a ripple on the diplomatic circuit. And yet its
sleepy capital will spring to life next week when global leaders arrive for an
Asian summit.
Barack Obama will be among them, making the last push of
his presidency to 'rebalance' Washington's foreign policy towards Asia, a
strategy widely seen as a response to China's economic and military
muscle-flexing across the region.
The might of Laos' giant neighbour to the north is hard
to miss in Vientiane: wealthy Chinese driving SUVs overtake tuk-tuks sputtering
along the roads and Chinese-backed hotels sprout from noisy construction sites
in one of Asia's most low-rise cities.
But diplomats say Obama could be pushing on an open door
in Laos, thanks to a change of government there in April.
They say the country's new leaders appear ready to tilt
away from Beijing and lean more closely towards another neighbour, Vietnam,
whose dispute with China over the South China Sea has pushed it into a
deepening alliance with the United States.
"The new government is more influenced by the
Vietnamese than the Chinese," said a Western diplomat in Southeast
Asia." "It's never too late for a U.S. president to visit."
Obama will become the first sitting U.S. president to
visit landlocked Laos, where the United States waged a "secret war"
while fighting in Vietnam, dropping an estimated two million tonnes of bombs on
the country. About 30 percent of the ordnance failed to explode, leaving a
dangerous and costly legacy.
Laos has strategic importance to both Vietnam and China.
Vietnam has a long land border with Laos that gives it access to markets in
Thailand and beyond. For China, Laos is a key gateway to Southeast Asia in its
"new Silk Road" trade strategy.
Laos, which is developing a series of hydropower plants
along one of the world's longest rivers, the Mekong, aims to become "the
battery of Asia" by selling power to its neighbours.
SHIFTING
POLICY
It is difficult to read policy in Laos because its leaders are so
uncommunicative, but Western diplomats have detected some shifts.
First, deputy Prime Minister Somsavat Lengsavad - who ran the steering
panel for a $7 billion Chinese rail project - retired. The project is now
believed to be on hold because Laos is unhappy with the terms of the deal.
Officials of Prime Minister Thongloun Sisoulith's new government, many
of them educated in Vietnam, have visited Hanoi en masse in recent weeks, their
first foreign trip.
At two of the past meetings of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN), which is currently chaired by Laos, Vientiane has taken a more
nuanced stance on Beijing than neighbouring Cambodia, which is increasingly
seen as a Chinese satellite.
"The U.S. strategic interest in Laos is to see the country be able
to exert a certain degree of strategic autonomy because you don't want ... (to)
have something akin to the relationship between China and Cambodia," said Phuong
Nguyen of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies
think-tank.
A defence official in Washington did not comment on wider strategic
issues but described Laos as "an important partner."
A China foreign ministry spokesman said "we welcome any country,
including those inside and outside this region, developing constructive
relations, as long as these ties are really beneficial to regional peace,
stability and prosperity."
LONG-TERM BATTLE
Beijing has invested around $1 billion annually in Laos in 2014 and
2015, a step up from the $4.5 billion invested historically before 2014,
according to figures from China's Ministry of Commerce and state-run media.
For the United States, impoverished Laos is not a strong investment
draw.
"In Laos, we bring 7-8 companies to the table compared with 30-40
companies that Vietnam brings. But China- that's a totally different ball
game," said Anthony Nelson, director of the U.S.-ASEAN business council.
"So there's no coincidence that the countries with the lowest
levels of development, Laos and Cambodia, are the most willing to advocate for
China's position in international discussions."
But the Lao are closer culturally to Vietnam than they are to China.
Their businesses use Lao language signs and mixed Lao-Vietnamese families
incorporate local customs, while Lao-Chinese families tend to be isolated.
"We are a bit frustrated with (China). They create their own
eco-system," a Lao businessman said.
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