The newly sworn in
government has managed to usher some incremental changes in Myanmar. Even after
winning an overwhelming mandate in the recent held elections, Suu Kyi could not
become President as constitutional provisions barred her from becoming one.
Nonetheless, she was appointed as foreign minister and as special “state
counsellor” which was a post created by the new government despite opposition
from the military members of the Parliament. In another bold move, political
prisoners of the junta era were freed by the NLD led government which was
achieved after the military-dominated Defence and Security Council was
bypassed. Suu Kyi as State counsellor also decreed against corruption and
nepotism among officials. Despite these achievements, there has been precious
little advance in the reconciliation of ethnic groups in Myanmar which has
become one of the most glaring problems of the country.
In the recently concluded Joint
Monitoring Committee which comprised of representatives from the government,
the military and the eight non-state armed groups that signed the nationwide
ceasefire agreement (NCA) with the former government of President Thein Sein in
2015, Suu Kyi called for a major peace conference styled on the Panglong
Conference with ethnic minorities. The Panglong Conference was a meeting held
by Suu Kyi’s father Aung San in 1947 to secure the backing of all minority
groups to help expel the British, in exchange for autonomy. However, demands
for greater autonomy continues to be the key demand in present day Myanmar of
its ethnic minorities, including the Chin, Kachin, Karen, Kayah, Mon, Rakain,
and Shan communities, which together represent over 30 percent of the 51
million inhabitants of the country.
Having been brutally silenced during
the junta era, since 2011 there have been some efforts at reconciliation,
however, these have not been to the satisfaction of all rebel groups. Suu Kyi
stressed that a conference in the 21st century based along the lines of the one
held in 1947 would enable the country to progress towards a federal arrangement
which has been a constant demand of the many minority groups of Myanmar. Suu
Kyi especially mentioned the need for the groups which did not sign the 2015
NCA to come onboard with regard to the proposed conference so as to seek and
ensure an all-inclusive agreement on the peace process.
Apart from appointing her family
doctor Tin Myo Win, as lead negotiator between the government and the
minorities, the proposal about a Panglong style conference by Suu Kyi was the
first of its kind with regard to ethnic reconciliation since the formation of
the new civilian led government in the country. Those groups which stayed out
of the NCA continue to have their own armies which have been at loggerheads
with the Tatmadaw leading to violent clashes between the two even after the
NLD- led government was formed. The situation has been dire partly due to the
emergence in the recent months of a ‘Northern Alliance’ of rebel groups
consisting of a band of armed groups operating along Myanmar’s border with
China.
The groups which comprise this
alliance consist of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, the United Wa State
Army and the Kachin Independence Army, none of which are party to the NCA. In
addition, the Arakan Army with troops who have trained in Kachin state has been
battling against the Tatmadaw in western Rakhine state, which has led to deaths
as well as displacement of close to 1,000 of the region. Residents of the town
of Kyauktaw in western Myanmar’s Rakhine state which has been the site of such
clashes have been calling for an end to the fighting by means of a political
solution.
Although, Suu Kyi may be sincere in
her efforts to enhance the peace process several hurdles lie in her path. For
instance, concessions or appeasement of the rebel groups would certainly lead
to consternation among the members of the army. Acrimony with the army would
make the NLD’s manoeuvres pertaining to enacting much-required new legislations
related to reform more knotty and burdensome given the significant presence of
the military in the Parliament. Escalating hostility with the army would not
serve Suu Kyi well as she needs cooperative engagement with the army to amend
the constitution which in its current form bars her and the civilian members of
the Parliament from exercising authority in an unencumbered manner in many
avenues. Moreover, the 2008 era constitution allows the army to control three
key ministries – home, defence and border affairs, all of which are directly
related to ethnic issues and it also prevents several kinds of freedoms to the
ethnic minorities of the country, without which they will continue to suffer
from the absence of rights.
Rebel leaders are of the view that
to achieve peace, constitutional amendment is essential, for which the military
must give up some of its powers. Moreover, there is a need for the ceasefire to
be consolidated for a peace process to ensue. The role assumed by the military
as the enforcer of national unity which they carry out by force needs to be
stopped for any ceasefire or peace process to work as well as to win over the
rebel groups still holding out on the NCA. The seemingly overwhelming power of
the Tatmadaw makes it seem that the NLD led government would not be able to
protect the ethnic minorities or to ensure any level of autonomy for them under
a federal framework, making it difficult for them to disband their rebel
armies. Thus, the military and its power must be reigned in prior for any peace
process with the rebel groups to materialize.
Suu Kyi faces the twin hurdle of
bringing the rebel groups not yet under the NCA as participants in the 21st
century Panglong-style conference which she has planned as well as deal with
the military whose power must be checked if any peace process or space is to be
made available for the ethnic groups to unreservedly exercise their religion,
culture and tradition, as well as political and economic freedoms in Myanmar
that is sacrosanct for democratization to truly take root in the country.
*Obja Borah Hazarika is an Assistant
Professor at the Dibrugarh University, Assam.
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