At
the center of President Obama’s strategy for dealing with the Islamic State is
an empty space. It’s supposed to be filled by a hypothetical “Sunni ground
force,” but after more than a year of effort, it’s still not there. Unless this
gap is filled, Obama’s plan won’t work.
Otherwise,
Obama made a reasonable case in his speech to the nation Sunday night. He’s
right to argue for patience and persistence in fighting the Muslim terrorists,
rather than “tough talk.” He’s correct that the United States shouldn’t feed
the jihadists’ fantasies with “a long and costly ground war.” And he’s
especially right that we’ll be safer at home and abroad if most Muslims are
allies against the extremists.
But there was a mysterious black box in
the middle of Obama’s speech.
Here’s how he tried to explain it: “The strategy that
we are using now—airstrikes, Special Forces and working with local forces who
are fighting to regain control of their own country—that is how we’ll achieve a
more sustainable victory.”
What “local forces” is Obama talking about? If he
means Kurdish fighters in Iraq and Syria, yes, they’ve performed admirably. In
Kurdish areas. They don’t want to clear and hold the Sunni heartland of the
Islamic State, nor should they. If Obama is talking about the Shiite-led Iraqi
military, their performance is still just barely adequate, even backed by
American air power, and they’re disdained and mistrusted by the Sunnis of
Ramadi, Fallujah and Mosul. If he’s talking about the Islamist brigades in
Syria armed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, it’s still not entirely clear
whether they’re friend or foe.
The disturbing fact is that a strong, reliable,
indigenous Sunni ground force doesn’t exist yet in Iraq or Syria. The United
States has been trying to fix this problem since the fall of Mosul in June
2014, with very little success. We’re like the joke about the starving
economist on a desert island who wants to open a can of beans: “Assume we have
a can opener!”
Consider the false hopes and missed connections over
the past year: In Iraq, US trainers were dispatched to Al Asad and Al Taqaddum
air bases in Anbar province to train thousands of Sunni tribal fighters. The
tribesmen mostly didn’t show up, and no wonder: The Shiite-led government in
Baghdad still refuses to approve a Sunni “national guard” with real power. In
Syria, Congress authorized a $500 million plan to train and equip a largely
Sunni force to fight the Islamic State. Only a few hundred signed up, instead
of the expected 5,000, and the first wave of fighters walked into a trap and
was savaged by jihadists in northern Syria.
Why have these efforts gone so badly, and what needs
to be fixed? Basically, I’d argue that Sunnis don’t trust an America that
turned their world upside down with the 2003 invasion that toppled Saddam
Hussein. Tribal leaders have been our default Sunni strategy ever since: We’re
trying now to use them as mercenaries against the Islamic State. But it’s a
corrupt bargain on both sides.
The Sunni no-show problem illustrates a deeper trauma.
Across the Middle East, Sunnis are experiencing a kind of vertigo. The Sunni
powerhouses—Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Libya—are in ruins. The people feel
dispossessed and disillusioned, disgusted with the autocrats who ruled them
before and the religious fanatics who want to rule them today.
Filling this Sunni vacuum with new self-confidence
will be the work of a generation, but it must start now, for it’s an essential
part of defeating the jihadists. The West’s best think tanks should be working
on this problem; the Arab world’s brightest young activists should be making
plans for governance and economic development. Global institutions such as the
United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund should be
developing plans for trusteeship, reconstruction and governance.
It’s 1944 in the Arab world: Defeating the jihadists
demands the creation of a healthy Sunni body politic.
What would a revived Sunni heartland in Iraq and Syria
look like? Well, you can get a pretty good idea by examining Iraqi Kurdistan.
It flowered under a US no-fly zone known as “Operation Provide Comfort” that
started in 1991. Under this protective cover, investment, security and
political stability came together in a virtuous cycle.
When we think about the future of Iraq and Syria, we
should have in mind vibrant Sunni provinces that, like Kurdistan, are part of a
loose federal state. In building a strategy for defeating the Islamic State,
creating this “Sunnistan” will be the long pole in the tent. WASHINGTON POST WRITERS GROUP
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