The
Heart of Asia conference regarding the stabilization of Afghanistan, which is
currently under way in Islamabad, provides a reality check on the geopolitics
of the region. The salience of the conference lies in regional integration
through security, connectivity, infrastructure development and trade and
investment.
The presence of the foreign ministers of ten countries in Islamabad –
including from China and India – testifies to the event’s importance in
regional politics. Pakistan’s multi-vector foreign policy, attuned to the
emergent multipolar world order, aims at transforming the country as the hub of
regional integration. Pakistan indeed enjoys a unique role in the search for
Afghan settlement, and its cooperation is much sought after by the
international community.
Pakistan provides the strategic gateway for both China’s Road and Belt
Initiatives and the United States’ New Silk Road strategy. Pakistan’s
cooperation becomes vital for the long-term western military presence in
Afghanistan, while China’s longstanding relations with Pakistan (which were
historically ‘India-centric’) have assumed a global character.
At the same time, Pakistan’s SCO membership impacts the regional
strategies of the US, Russia and China alike. The interplay of these multiple
factors explains the heightened interest of regional and western countries in
the Islamabad conference.
China is robustly pushing for an Afghan peace process since regional
security and stability are crucial for the development of Xinjiang as well as
for the advancement of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in which Beijing
has pledged an investment of $46 billion.
China’s proactive role has influenced the Pakistani approach toward the
Afghan situation, which in an earlier era used to be riveted on the objective
of gaining ‘strategic depth.’
One redeeming feature of the great game is that the dialectics between
cooperation and competition seldom degenerates into rivalry and conflict. Thus,
the competing big powers also acknowledge the crucial need of Pakistan’s
cooperation in the fight against terrorism and extremist groups. China and the
US are on the same page in promoting the Afghan peace talks and encouraging
Kabul and Islamabad in this regard.
The leitmotif of the conference in Islamabad has been the renewed
attempt to bring about a Pakistan-Afghanistan détente that would facilitate the
resumption of peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
Interestingly, the latest rumors regarding the killing of Taliban chief Mullah
Akhtar Mansour did not prevent President Ashraf Ghani from traveling to
Islamabad.
The presence of top Chinese and American diplomats at the Heart of Asia
conference may have helped bring about some degree of proximity between Kabul
and Islamabad. However, there are question marks about the unity within the
Taliban. Up until the rumors appeared regarding the killing of Mansour in a
factional fight, the impression was gaining ground that his leadership of the
Taliban movement had consolidated.
Equally, the tensions between Pakistan and India and the two countries’
mutual suspicions regarding each other’s intentions pose a major hurdle to
political settlement in Afghanistan. Washington hosted the Pakistani Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif and the army chief Gen. Raheel Sharif recently and held
in-depth discussions with them regarding Afghanistan. President Barack Obama
personally urged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at least twice recently to
engage Pakistan in dialogue.
The presence of the India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj in
Islamabad for the Heart of Asia conference signals that Modi is paying heed to
Obama’s advice. Without doubt, Modi has held out an olive branch to Prime
Minister Sharif. (The two leaders met briefly on the sidelines of the Climate
Change Conference in Paris.) The early reports suggest that Swaraj went to
Islamabad with a plan of action aimed at resuming the stalled dialogue between
the two countries.
Being a shrewd politician, Modi could be anticipating that a historic
visit by him to Pakistan in November next year to attend the SAARC summit
meeting will have huge resonance in the Hindu heartland of Uttar Pradesh, which
has a big Muslim population and is heading for crucial state election in early
2017. However, there is another compelling factor, too, weighing on Modi’s mind
– namely, the formal launching of the long-awaited
Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project on
Saturday. (Sharif – and, possibly, Modi too – will be attending the ceremony in
Ashgabat.)
Powerful Indian corporate groups, which finance Modi’s party, hope to
generate huge business at the secondary and tertiary level out of TAPI. The
infrastructure development happens to be the plank on which Modi’s development
agenda rests. Modi faces withering criticism in India that his much-touted
development agenda, which helped him secure a big mandate in the 2014 April
poll, has not yet seen the light of day. The TAPI opens up seamless
opportunities to kickstart a massive program of infrastructure development in
India.
It is well-known that the US and Japan are stakeholders in the TAPI. The
Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Monday approved $1.2 billion grants to
reinforce ongoing energy projects in Afghanistan. In geopolitical terms, TAPI
is an American idea within the framework of the so-called New Silk Road
strategy that aims at linking the Central Asian region with South Asia as a
counter to the Chinese and Russian dominance of the region.
As for Pakistan, TAPI goes a long way to meet the country’s energy
needs. Conceivably, Pakistan also hopes that TAPI holds the potential to ‘lock
in’ India as a cooperative neighbor. Thus, from different angles, the
TAPI creates an unprecedented ‘win-win’ spirit in the region.
The TAPI promises to be the finest flower of the Heart of Asia process
since its inception in Istanbul in November 2011. But then, life is real, and
not all flowers bear fruit. Much depends on Mansour and Modi.
Someone must prove quickly that Mullah Mansour is still alive –
otherwise the prospect of an early resumption of Afghan peace talks may recede
and the newfound bonhomie between Ghani and Sharif will peter out if the locus
once again shifts to the battlefield. Put differently, in the absence of an Afghan
settlement, the TAPI may remain a pipedream.
Similarly, Modi leads a badly divided India, which today lacks national
consensus on any major policy issue. Most certainly, Modi needs to rein in the
Hindu zealots who oppose any dialogue with Pakistan. His latest overture to
Pakistan is not backed up by any parallel effort to moderate the zero sum
mindset of the right wing Hindu nationalists, who, ironically, also happen to
be Modi’s natural allies in Indian politics.
By M.K. Bhadrakumar
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