At the
Paris climate negotiations, Indonesia brought to the table a target of an
unconditional 29 percent emissions reduction by 2030, increasing to 41 percent
on condition of international assistance. Indonesia’s emission reduction plan
(or Intended Nationally Determined Contribution)
is therefore slightly higher than its 2009 commitment to reduce emissions by 26
percent by 2020.
There are three problems with Indonesia’s
INDC. The target is not ambitious; the plan is incoherent; and with the recent
massive forest fires in Indonesia that have yet to be accounted for in the INDC
it does not accurately reflect emissions for Indonesia.
Such a problematic INDC would affect the
global efforts to adequately tackle climate change, since Indonesia is one of
the biggest carbon emitters in the world. The forest fires have pushed the
country into the top ranks of global greenhouse gas emitters.
Unambitious target
Each countries’ INDCs will determine
whether the world can achieve a global target to reduce carbon emissions that
can slow down global warming, limiting it to no more than 2 degrees C relative
to the pre-industrial era.
Is Indonesia’s target ambitious enough so
that when compared with other countries’ INDCs it can achieve this global
target? Not really.
For Indonesia to meaningfully contribute
to the global target, Indonesia’s emissions should be stable or decrease even
when the nation’s economy grows. The latest assessment from Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change suggests this way of decoupling GDP growth from
emissions growth to be ideal. However, Indonesia may find that difficult to do
given that its economies depend on high emission sectors such as agriculture,
forestry and energy.
At the moment, Indonesia does aim to
decouple its GDP growth and emission rate increase, but only through relative
decoupling, through which emissions rate increase is expected to be lower than
GDP growth.
In relation to the global target as
informed by climate science, the 29 percent emissions reductions target is not
ambitious enough. Furthermore, with the depth of Indonesia’s problems,
especially with the recent forest fires, Indonesia’s target should be higher.
Incoherent plan
Indonesia’s climate plan is not coherent.
There are no proper relations between different actions, sectors and parts of
planning process such as between the allocated budget and mitigation actions.
The incoherence is largely due to a
problematic process in producing the INDC.
The 29 percent target was first produced
by the Indonesia Development and Planning Board (Bappenas) using scientifically
sound calculations. However, Bappenas was not participative in their process.
They involved only a very limited circle of agencies and did not consult with
regional governments, the private sector and NGOs. Transparency was lacking in
the process and modelling.
The advisory board for Indonesia’s
ministry of environment and forestry who prepared the country’s INDC used the
result of these calculations to produce the INDC document. The advisory board’s
process was more participative. They included more stakeholders to take part in
their climate plan.
However, they took the number that
Bappenas produced - 29 percent emissions reductions - from its modelling, and
stripped the relations, assumptions and data that Bappenas used to come to that
number. As a result, the INDC document entails rich inputs but these are not
always connected and even contradict each other.
Forest fires
With these problems, Indonesia’s INDC
should be revised. With the recent massive forest fires in Indonesia, the INDC
should be more honest and include realistic simulations of peat-land
management.
Deforestation and land use activities are
Indonesia’s largest source of carbon emissions. Indonesia is the top exporter
of palm oil. To expand plantations of oil palms, farmers often use the
slash-and-burn techniques to open new plantations. With this year’s El Niño,
with temperatures rising above the 1997 levels, the fires were some of the
worst of recent times. At one point daily emissions in Indonesia surpassed
emissions from the entire US economy as a result of the fires.
The fires will become a critical pretext
for the Paris negotiations. They may increase the level of ambition of
countries to do more. The issue of forest fires may also spur other countries to
help more because the scale of the impact was enormous both for Indonesia and
the international community.
Indonesia's position in the negotiations
At the moment Indonesia seems yet to be
prepared for the Paris 2015 negotiations. We have yet to see a specific agenda
that Indonesia would like to bring to the table.
This is partly due to the recent
organizational change after president Joko Widodo took office last year.
Under former president Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono, the focal point for climate change negotiations was the National
Council for Climate Change (DNPI). This council often prepared working groups
to discuss different negotiation themes, such as financing, transfer of
technology, adaptation, and others, ahead of the conference.
Joko Widodo merged the council into the
Ministry of Environment and Forestry under a new directorate that oversees
climate change. This ministry established the aforementioned Advisory Board.
With the new structure, the new
directorate and advisory board did not have enough time to organize working
groups that are able to undertake proper preparations. As a result, just days
before the negotiation, we have yet to have a so-called Indonesia position for
various issues on climate change action.
Sonny Mumbunan is an economist and
research scientist at the research center for climate change at University of
Indonesia.
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