).
The death of the ruling
party’s founder and first prime minister, Lee Kuan Yew, on 23
March was followed by a massive propaganda effort that made the former leader
into a national icon and discouraged any form of criticism as disrespectful. As
part of the week-long remembrances, Singaporeans were exposed to constant
documentaries about the heroic effort of the PAP and its miraculous success in
transforming the country.
Also, 9 August 2015 marked
the 50th anniversary of the country’s independence in 1965. The massive
National Day celebrations stressed the ruling party’s success in the past. It
appears as if the PAP hopes to make use of the patriotic sentiments from these
two events to generate a rally-around-the-flag effect. This could help the PAP
increase its popular vote and prevent any loss of additional seats in
parliament.
The PAP controls 80 out of
87 elected seats but appears worried about losing more. This concern is due to
the last general election in 2011, in which it had its worst post-independence
performance. The PAP saw a decline in the popular vote from 66.6 per cent in
2006 to 60.1 per cent in 2011. It also lost one of the group representation
constituencies (GRCs) — electoral divisions where members of parliament are
voted in as a group rather than as individuals In the past, GRCs had been
difficult for the country’s small opposition parties to capture. But the
Workers’ Party captured the Aljunied GRC and its traditional single-member district
Hougang. The event was described as a watershed moment in Singapore politics.
Fears of further decline
have motivated the PAP to make a concerted effort to obstruct this trend.
There are many obstacles for
opposition parties. The election period is again extremely short — the
nomination day is on 1 September and the polling day is on 11 September. There
will be a ‘cooling-off day’ on 10 September, where parties are prohibited from
campaigning for 24 hours. This is supposed to make sure the election reflects a
rational choice by the citizenry (which implies a vote for the current
government).
Alternative parties have
generally started to campaign much earlier for this reason. But this is
difficult as the electoral boundaries are only made official a short time
before the election. This gerrymandering is completely government controlled
and lacks transparency. About 19 per cent of the population was moved to a new
constituency in 2015.
There is also a concerted
effort to portray the opposition as irresponsible and a threat to Singapore’s
future. Grassroots organisations and the public housing board are also linked
to the PAP. And most companies are directly or indirectly controlled by the
government. The media, which is owned by government-linked corporations, has
also sought to undermine the credibility of the opposition.
In particular, the
Hougang-Aljunied Town Council has become embroiled in an accounting scandal,
which has dragged on for months and continues to make headlines. It resembles a
smear campaign. But, at the same time, scandals involving the PAP have been
quickly dismissed. This includes the case involving the 2010 sale of town
council management software to Action Information Management, which is owned by
the PAP, and the subsequent termination of services provided to the Workers’
Party’s Aljunied-Hougang Town Council Because of the massive criticism of the
Workers’ Party, the PAP unsurprisingly wants to make town council management
one of the major issues of the 2015 election.
Opposition parties continue
to remain relatively weak and divided. Two new parties — Singaporeans First and
the People’s Power Party — have emerged since 2011. But the National Solidarity
Party has been engulfed in a crisis only days before the official election period.
The many small parties remain controlled by strong leaders but rumours of moles
in all small parties continue to persist. It is not surprising that there is
generally a lack of trust between different members.
But there is a silver lining
for the 2015 election. The PAP has not fielded any prominent candidate for the
Aljunied GRC, suggesting it has decided the status quo is ideal. Alternative
parties have come together to avoid three-cornered fights, and prominent
candidates have decided to compete. Most importantly, many Singaporeans still
want a voice in parliament.
It seems highly unlikely
that the 2015 Singapore election will bring any major change. It is more likely
that politics will transform in the longer term. And this change will most
likely come from within the ruling party, rather than from the weak opposition
or emasculated civil society.
Stephan Ortmann is a
visiting assistant professor in the Department of Asian and International
Studies, City University of Hong Kong.
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