Myanmar critics wary of overwhelming military power

The mini-coup on Thursday convinces critics that the army's grip will remain strong after election

THE POWER struggle within Myanmar's ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) has drawn concerns from local critics over the military's influence and its aim to play a dominant role even as the country prepares for its first democratic election.

Many of the critics expressed their views on Facebook last week, following the high-level reshuffle of the party that saw the dismissal of Thura Shwe Mann as chairman.

On his page, Yan Myo Thein, a political commentator/writer, said: "The current political situation in Myanmar is definitely not good. There are only two possibilities - to remain the same or to get worse. For me, in terms of percentage, the possibility is 50:50."

He believes that the reshuffle could have impacts on the upcoming election and envisages the possibility of the election being postponed, given that USDP was a military association that transformed into a political party. He pointed out that high-ranking military officials, who are accustomed to control, had created the USDP.

Larry Jagan, a specialist on Myanmar affairs and a freelance journalist, said the conflicts have been brewing for a while, and upon exploding, they could lead to the start of a "night of long knives" - referring to the turning point that established Adolf Hitler as "supreme judge of people".

"The coup shows Myanmar's political scene remains murky and rooted in the past. It does not bode well for its democratic transition," he said.

Until August 13, Shwe Mann was hailed as President Thein Sein's favourite candidate. When the latter assumed the presidency in 2011, he handed the chairmanship to Shwe Mann.

Though Shwe Mann remains union parliament speaker until the November 8 election, his dismissal indicates that he will not succeed Thein Sein. Over the past few years, Shwe Mann visited several countries and openly announced his readiness to work with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi in moving the country forward. Yet, he managed to anger the military when he began backing the amendment of the 2008 Constitution. The military said he betrayed national and military interests.

Maybe the last straw for the military was the list of election candidates. At a meeting with the candidates on April 12, Shwe Mann pointed out that some of them had taken bribes and abused their power. He also said that many of them had no knowledge or intention to abide by electoral laws, and some had not even bothered to speak to their constituents.

Among the candidates is Soe Thein, minister for the president's office, who will run as an independent candidate for the Upper House in Bawlakhe constituency, Kayah State. There are only around 5,000 eligible voters in the constituency, and he reportedly gave them gifts during a recent visit.

A soldier from the Bawlakhe Battalion said: "In the battalion, nobody said who we should vote for. I will vote for the person who will boost regional development. When Soe Thein visited Bawlakhe, he gave Sky Net satellite receivers to our families. I took one. A Soe Thein's football trophy is being planned, with the winners getting Ks3 million."

In the 2010 election, Soe Thein was elected in Kyunsu, Tanintharyi Region.

The party's candidate list includes 59 military officers for 26 seats for the upper and lower houses and 33 seats for regional and state parliaments. Fifty union ministers and deputy ministers will fight for 46 seats in Lower and Upper houses and four regional seats.

Among them is Hla Htay Win, the former supreme commander.

"I have performed duties in the defence and security sector. But I was also involved in national politics and will continue to serve the country. I want to perform duties to help social affairs, peace and stability," the retired general announced on August 12.

Though Thein Sein, 70, has not explicitly said he will run in the elections, he has indicated in interviews that he was open to the idea of a second term if asked.

At midnight on August 12, before Shwe Mann lost his chairmanship, security forces surrounded the party's headquarters in Nay Pyi Taw.

Thura Zaw, a freelance political writer, wrote on Facebook that this move proved that Thein Sein had made this move to ensure he is made president again.

"Behind this midnight reshuffle, there must have been some important points such as reconciliation between USDP and Tatmadaw [Myanmar armed forces] and the decision to give a second term to President Thein Sein. We can assume that the event led to the reestablishment of good communication between the party and the military. Given the very high possibility of winning 166 votes from military representatives, USDP led by Thein Sein will try to win another 167 places in the upcoming election. If this is true, then the new president after the elections will definitely be Thein Sein."

 

'Black Ribbon' campaign

The government also plans to put military officers in government posts, though the move to place more officers in director general posts at the Health Ministry was called off last week after doctors launched a social-media campaign called "Black Ribbon".

"I disagree with the transfer of the officers. Everybody has a chance to freely criticise the ministry's plan," Dr Khin Maung Lwin, rector of the University of Medicine in Mandalay, said on Facebook. He was slamming the decision of giving jobs in civilian hospitals and universities to military personnel.

The Mandalay medical student union condemned these appointments, saying these jobs should be given to civilian doctors and intellectuals. The Myanmar Medical Association and teachers were also urged to condemn the move and join the Black Ribbon movement.

On Friday, a day after Shwe Mann's dismissal, the party was made to stop publishing Union Daily, which was considered his mouthpiece. The staff was not notified in advance.

"Factionalism is the main problem in an immature democratic transition. Proper solution cannot be found even though we know what the problem is. Even though we know the solution, we do not have enough capacity to sort it out. In this way, the discovery of a genuine democracy is like a palace in the dreams. There are a lot of lessons to be learned from other countries in democratic transition which cannot go ahead to the level of 'genuine' democracy," Min Zaw Oo, an exiled political commentator, wrote on Facebook.ByKHINE KYAW,ACHARA DEBOONME