Asia
watchers have spent years divining the growing competition between the U.S. and
China in East Asia, seen by some as a new version of the 19th century Great
Game -- the Central Asian rivalry between the Russian and British empires.
Those predicting conflict feel justified by recent tensions in the South China
Sea, while others argue confidently that the depth of economic relations
between the two modern rivals will forestall any type of clash.
However, those interested in Asia's
long-term geopolitical trends should turn away from the sea and focus on the
Siberian steppes. There, a still-growing and needy China is eyeing Russia's
riches covetously.
For years after World War II, it was
Japan that flirted with investment projects in Siberia, in part as a political
sop to Moscow as it sought to settle a territorial dispute over the
Russian-controlled Kuril Islands, known in Japan as the Northern Territories.
As Japan's economy has stagnated and China's has grown, Beijing has emerged as
the most significant country interested in the Russian Far East. But for
Moscow, beset with economic and social weakness, China's interest carries as
many potential dangers as it does benefits.
Tense
neighbors
Despite what appears to be a close relationship between
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the two
countries have for centuries watched each other warily. They have fought border
wars on the vast steppes, including one in the 17th century that led to the
first modern treaty negotiated by an Asian nation, the 1689 Treaty of
Nerchinsk. Driven by generations of Russian colonization of uncharted Siberia,
the border region between the two was always fluid and changing, at least until
the founding of Vladivostok ("Ruler of the East") in 1860, when the
modern demarcation lines were set. Yet the two countries had border disputes as
recently as 1969. Nikkei Asian Review
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