Chinese President Xi
Jinping will head to Pakistan next week. What’s on the agenda?
After
plenty of ambiguity, we’ve now heard confirmation from
both Islamabad and Beijing that Chinese President Xi Jinping will indeed be
traveling to Pakistan next week for a long-awaited state visit. The visit was
originally supposed to take place last fall, when Xi toured South Asia
(visiting India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives), but was postponed amid
nationwide anti-government protests in Pakistan. Xi’s visit to Pakistan will
last two days and then he will head to Indonesia to attend the Asian-African
Summit and commemorate the 60th anniversary of the Bandung Conference.
The
agenda for Xi’s meetings with Pakistan’s top leadership — including Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif, President Mamnoon Hussain, and possibly Pakistan’s Chief
of Army Staff Raheel Sharif (no relation to the prime minister) — will be
packed. What we know about the impending visit’s agenda primarily comes from
the Pakistani side — the Chinese foreign ministry and state media have been
relatively muted about the visit, only officially announcing it on Friday.
Pakistan, meanwhile, has spread word that the crown jewel of Xi’s visit to
Pakistan this year will be a series of agreements on financing Pakistani
infrastructure projects, in energy, transportation, and communications.
Pakistani officials estimate that China will commit $46 billion to
the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (the name for this collection of
projects). China’s former ambassador to Pakistan recently corroborated these reports
to Xinhua, noting that ”the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC) will be high on the agenda” during Xi’s visit.
The logic
of China making a major infrastructure investment in Pakistan certainly makes
plenty of sense. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor would connect the
Chinese-financed port city of Gwadar on Pakistan’s southern coast with the
trans-Himalayan Karakoram highway, which connects western China to northern
Pakistan. In theory, improved infrastructure along this corridor would help the
transit of goods and services from the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean to
China. According to some reports, China may consider financing some of
the later projects through the newly established Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Silk Road Fund.
In Xi
Jinping’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative, Pakistan will come to play a central
role given its position at the nexus of South and Central Asia, with the
Arabian peninsula in close proximity off its southern coast. China’s plans for
a land-based Silk Road Economic belt and a sea-based Maritime Silk Road will
rely on a functional China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. As a Chinese Foreign
Ministry spokesman put it, the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is “a flagship project of the ‘Belt and Road’
initiative.” In order to realize this Corridor, China and Pakistan are expected
to sign agreements on 32 projects, according to one report in
Pakistan’s Business Recorder. Sixteen of these projects will focus
on energy, five will focus on Gwadar, and four on transportation and
infrastructure.
Furthermore,
one of the major agreements, which the Wall Street
Journal scooped and I discussed in greater detail
last week, will be a deal to have China finance a majority of
Pakistan’s work on the Iran-Pakistan natural gas pipeline. The completed
pipeline will deliver natural gas from Iran’s South Pars field to southern
Pakistan — a coup for energy-starved Pakistan.
China and
Pakistan, long self-described “all-weather partners,” have a range of
non-economic issues to discuss as well. During Xi’s time in power, China’s
persistent problem with Uyghur separatists in the country’s restive western
province has grown worse. China knows that Uyghur separatist groups, including
the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, use Pakistani territory as an area to plan
and train for eventual terrorist attacks that claim Chinese lives. Xi will
undoubtedly be briefed on Pakistan’s ongoing campaign against its homegrown
terror problem. Xi will likely praise Pakistan’s progress on Operation Zarb-e-Azb,
the Pakistani military’s massive campaign against extremist militants in the
country’s tribal regions.
On
military cooperation, the big-ticket item we’ll be waiting for news on is
the recent announcement that China is likely to sell Pakistan eight
conventional submarines — a deal that, if concluded, would double Pakistan’s submarine
fleet. Details on which submarines and their price remain unknown
(though don’t be surprised if it’s the Type 041 Yuan-class). Additionally,
Xi and Pakistan’s top brass will likely discuss progress on the joint
Sino-Pakistani JF-17 lightweight multi-role fighter — specifically, the issue of why it’s having a
tough time on the global fighter market.
On
Monday, Xi will address a joint session of Pakistan’s
parliament, likely his most public opportunity for a statement on
the future of the China-Pakistan relationship during the entire state visit. If
Pakistani reports are true and Xi does depart for Indonesia having left behind
assurances of$46 billion in Chinese financing and grants for Pakistani
projects, the development would be nothing short of a sorely needed miracle for
Pakistan, which endures major deficiencies in its energy and transportation
infrastructure. By Ankit Panda
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