For
many years, the world has looked at the Middle East in fear that any conflict
there could spill over into a region-wide war that pits the two great sects of
Islam against each other.
On the weekend the Sunni Arab states
announced that they were forming a joint army, a standing force of some 40,000
elite troops.
Their
most urgent target: the agents of the superpower of the Shia world, Iran.
Giving concrete
force to their intention, the leading Sunni powers of Saudi Arabia and Egypt
last week launched a joint assault on Iran's agents in Yemen, the Houthi
fighters who've taken control of the capital, Sanaa.
Iran is rising,
and the Sunni Arab states have had enough. As the Saudi Foreign Affairs
Minister, Saud al-Faisal, has said: "We see Iran involved in Syria and
Lebanon and Yemen and Iraq and God knows where."
While the Saudis
and Egyptians are their leading powers, the wider bloc of Sunni-majority
nations includes Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Iraq.
A group of the
Sunni Arab nations are taking an active part in the air war against the Houthis
in Yemen.
Yemen is the
world's latest failed state. But Saudi Arabia shares a 1800 kilometre border
with its southern neighbour and has no intention of allowing it to become an
Iranian playground.
The two sides of
this sectarian divide, the Sunni and the Shia, are not attacking each other's
territory directly, but they are fighting an intensifying proxy war across
several fronts.
A question that
springs immediately to mind for Australia as it seeks a bearing – which side is
America on? The answer: both.
On one hand, the
US is the chief ally and longtime protector of Saudi Arabia and its Sunni Arab allies.
On the other
hand, the US is allied on the same side as Iran as they fight to regain control
of Iraq from the so-called Islamic State forces.
Further, the US
is leading the international negotiations with Iran seeking agreement over its
nuclear program, with the deadline for a deal in the next 24 hours.
In fact, that's
one of the key reasons that the Sunni Arabs have decided they need to create their
joint army and act decisively against Iran.
The Saudis and
other Sunni Arab states are frantic that the US is entering into a close
relationship with the Ayatollahs:
"In recent
weeks dozens of articles in the Arab press, and particularly in the Saudi
press, have harshly criticised the Obama administration's policy in the region
– especially its Iran policy, which they term 'destructive', 'idiotic',
'dangerous' and 'narrow-minded'," summarises the Middle East Media
Research Institute.
Their fear? That the
US will reach a nuclear deal with Iran, and this will then lead them on to
reach a deal over the civil war in Syria. Iran is the chief ally of Syria's
Bashar al-Assad.
In this, the
Saudis and other Sunnis share the apprehension of the Israelis. As its prime
minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said to the US Congress: "In the Middle
East, Iran now dominates four Arab capitals – Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut
and Sanaa. And if Iran's aggression is left unchecked, more will surely follow.
"So, at a
time when many hope that Iran will join the community of nations, Iran is busy
gobbling up the nations."
Iran,
interestingly, applauded the Israeli leader for recognising the sweep of its
growing power. "Netanyahu acknowledged with certainty Iran's might and
influence; he said that Iran has taken over four countries in the region,"
said an adviser to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and former intelligence
minister, Ali Younesi, according to the state-owned news service.
All sides agree
on Iranian imperial ambition. And all US allies in the region, Arab and Jew
alike, converge in deep doubt over American willpower and wisdom.
The collapse of
Yemen is cited as yet more evidence of failing US policy. A year ago, Barack
Obama lauded his Yemen strategy as a model for US counterterrorism. The US
waged a drone war on terrorist targets with the help of a sympathetic
government.
But now the
US-backed government in Sanaa has fallen, the president has fled to Riyadh, the
Iranian-supplied Houthis have taken over, and US special forces detonated
tonnes of sensitive equipment on March 20 and fled the Houthi onrush.
The Sunni Arab
states have a second reason for forming their combined army – they are
threatened by so-called Islamic State.
Although IS is
notionally Sunni, the governments it most hates are those of the Sunni Arab
countries because they are the most guilty of betrayal of Islam, they claim.
The natural
temptation faced with such an intensifying series of complex threats is
withdrawal. Yet that's the last thing that the US and its allies should do,
according to Martin Indyk, the Australian-born US Middle East expert:
"Not taking
a stand in Syria was the original mistake that helped to open the gates of
hell." Intelligent involvement, not inaction, is the right response.
Yet the acid test
for Australia, as the Lowy Institute's Anthony Bubalo puts it, is this:
"The whole regional order has broken down. We have very little influence.
The question for us: 'How smart is the guy whose action we're joining? How good
is his policy?'."
The evidence on
the ground makes it increasingly difficult for US allies to put their hands on
their hearts and express full confidence.
Peter Hartcher is the international editor Sydney Morning Herald
No comments:
Post a Comment