When expectations are raised, there is
often a rush to judgment and a resulting disappointment. That was always the
risk with Indonesia's President Joko Widodo, whose election victory was hailed
as a landmark moment and a break from the old elite leadership. Barely 100 days
since he took office, many are reassessing whether the president, while still
popular, really has the clout and capacity to decisively set the direction for
the country.
Much attention has focused on the announcement of
General Budi Gunawan as the sole candidate for police chief. The general is
currently under investigation for corruption, and many see his candidacy as
eroding President Jokowi's pledge of clean government. Analysts also see this
as former president Megawati Sukarnoputri rewarding her onetime aide, and
exerting her power behind the "throne" as leader of the PDI-P.
The saga has now developed into tit-for-tat between KPK anti-corruption commission and the police, or POLRI. KPK deputy chairman Bambang Widjojanto was recently arrested and held for questioning by the police. Jokowi then made a statement appealing for an amicable resolution of the issues between the two agencies. This painfully and publicly shows the split among government agencies, and markets have reacted negatively, with a softer rupiah and generally lower stock market prices.
Their concern is valid. The Jokowi presidency has promised a broad agenda for change. Yet within the ranks of the ruling coalition and in parliament, the president does not hold all the cards. It is too early, however, to judge that the Jokowi cabinet will falter.
Credit must be given for Jokowi's quick and decisive scrapping of the populist fuel subsidies on January 1, against the challenges of an SBY-approved annual budget. He also showed a hands-on presence in dealing with the tragic AirAsia crash. Jokowi - who as a former furniture salesman comes from outside Jakarta's political elites - has done enough to convey a new energy and decisiveness in government.
He not only remains popular, but has also burnished his leadership credentials among the public. Action against foreign ships engaged in illegal fishing and dogged enforcement of the death sentence on foreign drug traffickers have been opportunities to illustrate that this new leadership will stand up to other countries.
Other initiatives will take time to evolve and evaluate. One is the concept of a Global Maritime Axis, first expounded in his election manifesto, which has captured public fancy with powerful imagery of a great archipelagic power harking back to glorious empires of the past. To back this up, the Jokowi administration will need to address Indonesia's long-held maritime vulnerabilities and build up its naval presence. This is a considerable change from the preceding 10 years, when the navy's capabilities were reined in by tight budgets and a policy to maintain only the "minimum essential force". Hardware shopping began last May and has already gained momentum in 2015.
Media have reported Indonesia's interest in purchasing Kilo-Class submarines from its traditional purveyor, Russia. Whether or not the deal pans out, development of maritime defences underscores a political consensus that Indonesia faces security threats and needs to ready itself to face them. This is especially so with growing militarisation and hostility in the Indian and Pacific Oceans and, closer to home, the South China Sea. Possibly the simplest achievable defence strategy for Indonesia now is sabre-rattling.
Looking ahead, the Indonesia that is emerging will no longer be docile or passive on maritime issues. It is taking on a clearly defined maritime posture in foreign policy and will increasingly protest against what it perceives as external threats. Expect therefore that a new strategic dialogue will evolve between Indonesia and co-claimants of the South China Sea, especially China, with its claims overlapping on Indonesia's exclusive economic zone around Natuna Islands.
On the economy, the need for infrastructure and foreign investment was also promised in Jokowi's campaign and steps are expected to move ahead. Thus far, measures remain resolutely in place to steer foreign investments towards nationalistic goals. Multinational companies attracted to the large and still growing economy will face demands that they take on considerable local partnership, and increase the local value-addition, above and beyond what market forces would normally bear.
The promise to create jobs for Indonesians is a critical part of the Jokowi pledge to close the gaps between rich and poor. But the lack of higher-level production knowledge and skills will remain obstacles to industrial development. On this front, the first 100 days cannot tell us very much about how well the Jokowi government will do.
There is a clear understanding that four critical areas must be addressed if Jokowi is to be successful: Corruption eradication, job creation, infrastructure building, and reduction of the socio-economic divide.
It is also clear that while he won the presidential election, rivalry for power remains keen. Those who defended the elite status quo lost the battle for the presidency but remain committed to a battle, if their vital interests are threatened.
What we have witnessed in these first 100 days is by no means a dismal record, and the sense is that the administration is earnestly attempting to stay on track with its key initiatives even as it fire-fights various controversies, or (naturally) reaches for the low-hanging fruit first. In this context, compromises and political bargaining are inevitable and need not be perceived as permanent setbacks. Rather, in Indonesia's complex political milieu, these may be the necessary half-step backwards before the Jokowi government gets into full stride forwards.
The saga has now developed into tit-for-tat between KPK anti-corruption commission and the police, or POLRI. KPK deputy chairman Bambang Widjojanto was recently arrested and held for questioning by the police. Jokowi then made a statement appealing for an amicable resolution of the issues between the two agencies. This painfully and publicly shows the split among government agencies, and markets have reacted negatively, with a softer rupiah and generally lower stock market prices.
Their concern is valid. The Jokowi presidency has promised a broad agenda for change. Yet within the ranks of the ruling coalition and in parliament, the president does not hold all the cards. It is too early, however, to judge that the Jokowi cabinet will falter.
Credit must be given for Jokowi's quick and decisive scrapping of the populist fuel subsidies on January 1, against the challenges of an SBY-approved annual budget. He also showed a hands-on presence in dealing with the tragic AirAsia crash. Jokowi - who as a former furniture salesman comes from outside Jakarta's political elites - has done enough to convey a new energy and decisiveness in government.
He not only remains popular, but has also burnished his leadership credentials among the public. Action against foreign ships engaged in illegal fishing and dogged enforcement of the death sentence on foreign drug traffickers have been opportunities to illustrate that this new leadership will stand up to other countries.
Other initiatives will take time to evolve and evaluate. One is the concept of a Global Maritime Axis, first expounded in his election manifesto, which has captured public fancy with powerful imagery of a great archipelagic power harking back to glorious empires of the past. To back this up, the Jokowi administration will need to address Indonesia's long-held maritime vulnerabilities and build up its naval presence. This is a considerable change from the preceding 10 years, when the navy's capabilities were reined in by tight budgets and a policy to maintain only the "minimum essential force". Hardware shopping began last May and has already gained momentum in 2015.
Media have reported Indonesia's interest in purchasing Kilo-Class submarines from its traditional purveyor, Russia. Whether or not the deal pans out, development of maritime defences underscores a political consensus that Indonesia faces security threats and needs to ready itself to face them. This is especially so with growing militarisation and hostility in the Indian and Pacific Oceans and, closer to home, the South China Sea. Possibly the simplest achievable defence strategy for Indonesia now is sabre-rattling.
Looking ahead, the Indonesia that is emerging will no longer be docile or passive on maritime issues. It is taking on a clearly defined maritime posture in foreign policy and will increasingly protest against what it perceives as external threats. Expect therefore that a new strategic dialogue will evolve between Indonesia and co-claimants of the South China Sea, especially China, with its claims overlapping on Indonesia's exclusive economic zone around Natuna Islands.
On the economy, the need for infrastructure and foreign investment was also promised in Jokowi's campaign and steps are expected to move ahead. Thus far, measures remain resolutely in place to steer foreign investments towards nationalistic goals. Multinational companies attracted to the large and still growing economy will face demands that they take on considerable local partnership, and increase the local value-addition, above and beyond what market forces would normally bear.
The promise to create jobs for Indonesians is a critical part of the Jokowi pledge to close the gaps between rich and poor. But the lack of higher-level production knowledge and skills will remain obstacles to industrial development. On this front, the first 100 days cannot tell us very much about how well the Jokowi government will do.
There is a clear understanding that four critical areas must be addressed if Jokowi is to be successful: Corruption eradication, job creation, infrastructure building, and reduction of the socio-economic divide.
It is also clear that while he won the presidential election, rivalry for power remains keen. Those who defended the elite status quo lost the battle for the presidency but remain committed to a battle, if their vital interests are threatened.
What we have witnessed in these first 100 days is by no means a dismal record, and the sense is that the administration is earnestly attempting to stay on track with its key initiatives even as it fire-fights various controversies, or (naturally) reaches for the low-hanging fruit first. In this context, compromises and political bargaining are inevitable and need not be perceived as permanent setbacks. Rather, in Indonesia's complex political milieu, these may be the necessary half-step backwards before the Jokowi government gets into full stride forwards.
By Simon Tay, Jennifer Quick respectively,
chairman and deputy director at the Singapore Institute of International
Affairs. The SIIA was ranked among the top Asian think-tanks in the recently
released 2014 Global Go To Think Tank index.
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